The Jets-Steelers line moved 4¹/₂ points after the Jets’ win in Atlanta, from Steelers by 2 to Jets by 2¹/₂. That’s quite a reaction to one game, an indication the linemakers in Las Vegas no longer see the Jets as a clown act.
Still, this number is curious. The home team normally is given a three-point bump, so here, Vegas is saying the 0-4 Steelers are ¹a half point better than the 3-2 Jets. Do the Steelers rate that kind of respect?
Well, they still have Big Ben and Troy Polamalu and Heath Miller and LaMarr Woodley and some other vintage names. But the offensive line is gutted, and that makes this a bad matchup because the Jets’ defensive line is lethal. Turnovers and field position gained there will help Geno Smith put another W on the board.
The pick: Jets, -2¹/₂
Raiders (+9) over CHIEFS: Lot of points in a division-rivalry game. Raiders have scored at least 14 and averaged just under 20 versus tough competition including the Colts and Broncos. K.C. (5-0) is on a joyride that won’t last forever.
BUCCANEERS (+1) over Eagles: Bucs, 0-4 and coming off bye, have had two weeks to get Mike Glennon acclimated. He will find success versus Eagles’ defense. Michael Vick’s injury has to hamstring Chip Kelly’s attack somewhat.
RAVENS (+2¹/₂) over Packers: Joe Flacco is 10-0 with 16 touchdowns and three interceptions at home versus NFC teams. Packers have a big net yardage edge, and that’s something I usually respect. But the number that jumps out is the 374 yards per game the Packers give up, and that was before Clay Matthews got hurt.
BROWNS (+2¹/₂) over Lions: Calvin Johnson returned to practice Thursday, but he can’t help a Detroit D that gives up 392 ypg. Browns have the post-Thursday edge: Teams with 10 days’ rest off a Thursday nighter are 7-1 against the spread.
Panthers (+2¹/₂) over VIKINGS: Panthers have top yardage defense in NFC, and will stand up to Adrian Peterson. If Cam Newton’s ever going to perk up, it’ll be against a Viking defense that yields 430 yards per game.
TEXANS (-7¹/₂) over Rams: Even after their 34-3 loss at San Francisco, the Texans have the best yardage defense in the NFL, This may be the last stand for Matt Schaub, who set the record with four straight games with a pick-6. On both sides of ball, we see the best the Texans have to offer this week.
BILLS (+7) over Bengals: EJ Manuel’s injury is factored into the touchdown line. Bills can support new QB Thad Lewis with the AFC’s top running game and, like the Browns, have the extra three days after a Thursday night game (7-1 against the spread next game).
Titans (+13¹/₂) over SEAHAWKS: This line looks small compared to the Broncos whopper, but it’s still a ton of points to be giving to a lunch-pail team like the Titans which has a winning record (3-2).
Jaguars (+27) over BRONCOS: The 0-5 Jags have lost games by 26, 28 and 34 this season, and the Broncos have a 32-point win, so the line — tied for the largest in NFL history — isn’t out of line. But situationally, it’s hard to give 27 with a Denver defense that just gave up 48 points. And it’s a classic sandwich game for the Broncos, between Dallas and Peyton Manning’s return to Indianapolis.
Cardinals (+10¹/₂) over 49ERS: Taking more big West Coast points. The 49ers have won last two by 24 and 31, making their statement last week versus Texans. Can see them getting dragged into an ugly one here against a division rival with identical 3-2 record.
Saints (+2¹/₂) over PATRIOTS: Hard to pick against Patriots at home, but Drew Brees has more weapons than Tom Brady does, and that’s even if Rob Gronkowski returns. Brees is 3-0 with eight touchdowns and no interceptions versus the Patriots in his career. Better team, with points.
Redskins (+5¹/₂) over COWBOYS: Redskins are 1-3, minus 50 yards per game; Cowboys are 2-3, minus 32 yards per game. Pretty similar, and indicative of a close rivalry game. RG3 beat Cowboys twice last year and takes aim at a defense that gave up 51 points last week.
MONDAY NIGHT
CHARGERS (+1¹/₂) over Colts: Have had much success with Colts, this space’s Super Bowl champ pick. But like Broncos, they could be caught looking ahead to next week’s meeting with Manning. Can see them hitting a pothole here,
BEST BETS: Jaguars, Texans, Redskins
LOCK OF THE WEEK: Jaguars
(Locks 2-3)
LAST WEEK: 9-5 overall, 3-0 Best Bets.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Bears