ORLANDO, Fla. — Manhattan coach Steve Masiello said several times this season he believed it would be more difficult to win the MAAC Championship than it would be to win a game in the NCAA Tournament.
That was before the 13th-seeded Jaspers drew defending national champion Louisville, a No. 4 seed considered one of the title favorites.
“They’re playing the best basketball of anyone in the country,” said Masiello, who spent six seasons as an assistant at Louisville before coming to The Bronx in 2011. “I think they’re a team that can go on to win the national title.”
There were a handful of highly-seeded teams the Jaspers coaching staff hoped to face, believing they would be favorable matchups. The Cardinals were not one of them.
Having studied under mentor Rick Pitino at Louisville, Masiello installed a mirror-image of his style, minus the blue-chip athletes. Junior guard RaShawn Stores said it’s like “playing against our big brothers,” and Masiello referred to his former team as “basically, a bigger, better version of us.”
Bigger upsets have happened, though.
Masiello admitted several things need to go right for his team and wrong for Louisville for the Jaspers to pull a shocker like the one they did in 2004 — over fifth-seeded Florida, with Masiello as an assistant — on Thursday night.
Last season, the Jaspers traveled to Louisville — playing without injured star George Beamon — and lost by 28.
“It’s going to come down to, can we make them play a game that’s not to their strength?” Masiello said. “Can we make Louisville play their ‘B’ or ‘C’ game and us play our ‘A’ game to give us a chance?”
Here is how they’ll have a chance:
Sharpshooters
Any upset — Harvard over New Mexico last season or Villanova over Georgetown in the 1985 title game — usually requires a great shooting night.
George Beamon (37.1 percent on 3-pointers) and Shane Richards (42.1 percent) are the team’s two biggest threats from the perimeter and completely change the offensive confidence of the defensive-oriented team.
Richards, who has hit at least one 3-pointer in every game this season, is especially important, with 183 of his 203 field-goal attempts coming from beyond the arc.
Louisville’s relentless defense, which allows 39.3 percent shooting from the field, won’t make it easy.
Russdiculously cold
Louisville’s Russ Smith may now be the best guard in the country, but if the Brooklyn native reverts to “Russdiculous” behavior and poor shot selection, it could get interesting.
Smith shot a career-best 47.5 percent from the field this season while attempting 13 shots per game, but shot 41.5 percent with 18 shots per game in the team’s five losses.
The Cardinals shot 47.4 percent from the field this season, but shot below 40 percent in four of their losses.
Free points
Manhattan’s aggressive, physical style of play earned the Jaspers 661 trips to the foul line this season — the second-most attempts in the nation — but far too often it didn’t pay off.
Manhattan hit 66.2 percent from the line this season, ranking 283rd in the nation.
Big man Rhamel Brown, whose offensive game has blossomed this season, will be especially key, having shot 51.4 percent at the line.
Turnover battle
Manhattan’s pressure defense results in 8.3 steals per game (16th in the country), but Louisville is even better, causing the second-most steals per game in the country (10.3). Without a true point guard, the Jaspers could be bothered by the full-court pressure of Pitino’s team, which caused 26 turnovers in last season’s blowout.
Home away from home
Manhattan is great playing away from Draddy Gymansium, having won the second-most games away from home this season (16), behind only Wichita State, but should get the benefits of a home game. Between New York transplants and fans pulling for the underdog, Manhattan could carry some momentum, especially if the Jaspers can keep it close for the first 10 minutes.
Even if some of those things happen, Masiello said, “Then maybe you have a chance.”
They’ll need a little something extra, too.
“You got to have luck on your side,” Masiello said. “You got to be honest about that … you got to have three or four things go our way.”