FSU run offense vs. Auburn run defense
Jameis Winston gets all the attention, but the team’s rushing attack was just as dangerous, ranking ninth in the nation in yards per carry, with an imposing offensive line, featuring All-American center Bryan Stork. Devonta Freeman led the team with 943 yards and 13 touchdowns, while Karlos Williams scored 11 times on nearly half the attempts, averaging 8.2 yards per carry. Dee Ford and Auburn’s defensive line are more likely to cause problems for the Seminoles’ pass protection.
EDGE: Florida State
Auburn run offense vs. FSU Run defense
If Auburn is going to pull the upset, it’s going to be because of the nation’s best running game, which averages 335.7 yards per game. Expect to see a lot of quick option runs involving quarterback Nick Marshall and running back Tre Mason, hoping to exploit Florida State’s lone question mark. The Seminoles looked human against the best rushing team they faced this season, allowing 200 yards and 34 points to Boston College, and they acknowledge Auburn has the best offensive line they will see this season.
EDGE: Auburn
FSU Pass offense vs. Auburn pass defense
Winston got his Heisman with the help of the nation’s most talented trio of wide receivers — Rashad Greene, Kelvin Benjamin and Kenny Shaw. Benjamin, a sophomore, is probably the toughest to defend, standing 6-foot-5, though Winston says tight end Nick O’Leary — Jack Nicklaus’ grandson — is his favorite target. Winston’s been amazing since his first snap and Auburn’s secondary has been a mess, allowing 995 yards and eight passing touchdowns over the past three games.
EDGE: Florida State
Auburn pass offense vs. FSU Pass defense
Tigers speedster Sammy Coates is second in the nation with 22.1 yards per reception, but Nick Marshall has few other places to throw. On a team that runs nearly 72 percent of the time, Marshall hasn’t had to throw much, with Auburn averaging 169.6 passing yards per game. When he does throw, he could be in trouble. Florida State leads the nation with 25 interceptions and allows the fewest yards per completion (4.9).
EDGE: Florida State
FSU Special teams vs. Auburn special teams
Both teams feature solid kick returners, but the Seminoles’ speed has helped earn them the third-best return average in the nation. Freshman Kermit Whitfield has averaged 34.4 yards, with one touchdown, but Auburn kicker Cody Parkey could neutralize that, leading the nation with 67 touchbacks. Parkey has made 14 of 19 field goals this season, with one missed extra point, while Florida State kicker Roberto Aguayo is 19 of 20, including 7 of 8 from 40 yards or longer.
EDGE: Florida State
IntangiblesÂ
Florida State will be playing in the national championship game for the first time in 13 years, while Auburn’s roster features 11 players from its title win in 2011. The disparity in the two teams’ strength of schedule shouldn’t matter much, but Auburn’s experience playing in several close games could be key. There’s also that little matter of the miracles that brought Auburn here. The Tigers may not be here because of destiny, but belief is just as important as reality.
EDGE: Auburn
Coaching
Jimbo Fisher — the offensive coordinator on LSU’s 2003 national championship team — has done a tremendous job, turning the Seminoles back into a national power in just his fourth season, but Gus Malzahn turned Auburn around in just one season, transforming the 3-9 squad into one of the nation’s best. Malzahn is almost guaranteed to try a trick or three on offense that could change the momentum.
EDGE: Auburn
PredictionÂ
Points will be plentiful. If Auburn could light up Alabama and Missouri for 103 points and 841 rushing yards combined, Florida State isn’t any more likely to be able to slow down the Tigers’ running game. Still, the Seminoles offense is so much more balanced, because it has the nation’s best quarterback. Playing from behind, Marshall won’t be able to match Winston when the throws matter most.
Florida State, 38-30