Steve Serby

Steve Serby

NFL

The betting public is in love with Peyton Manning

DENVER — The lure of Peyton Manning playing again in the Super Bowl has been too enticing for the general betting public. Viva Peyton Manning in Las Vegas.

“Obviously I didn’t factor it in enough, because that’s the push right now for Denver,” said John Avello, director of Wynn Las Vegas Race and Sports Book, which had the Seahawks opening as a slight favorite and now has them as 2-point underdogs. The Post line has Denver as a 2 ¹/₂ -point favorite.

“I think the storyline has contributed to the line movement — Peyton Manning, going for his second Super Bowl. Last year [he] probably should have got there and didn’t. The team just beat the Patriots, who are probably as good of an offensive team as anybody in the NFL, then stopped them.”

The MetLife Super Bowl has a chance at a record $100 million handle.

“We’ve had great numbers this year in NFL betting,” Avello said, “and if that trend continues, then this should break the record ($98.9 million).”

Here’s how the current Super Bowl point spread was arrived at:

Avello opened the Super Bowl XLVIII line at Seattle minus-1.

“And it opened at that number because that’s what my ratings told me the number was, that’s No. 1,” Avello said. “And No. 2 is I had two futures Super Bowl lines up — I had the AFC versus the NFC, and I’ve had that up for a very long time. … That’s fluctuated between Pick and 3. And the latest money I got on that, they laid the 2 ¹/₂ on the NFC. That was one of the reasons, and then the second reason is, I had the futures Super Bowl line up for about a week, and I had Seattle 1 over Denver, and the sharp guys, sophisticated players, laid the 1.

“So when I look at both of those things, and my power rating was Seattle 1, the number I hung was 1.”

It didn’t hang there long.

“We hung it and took a good-sized bet, and went from 1 straight to 1 the other side [Denver],” Avello said. “Then I took one six-figure bet at minus-1 and I went to 2. And meanwhile, there was some other little money coming in the whole time on Denver, so it was more the general public pushing that number that way, not really sophisticated money.”

The Broncos are a public team in Las Vegas.

I asked Avello where he anticipates the line ending up.

“It could go as high as 3 because what’ll happen is, if someone likes Seattle, you’re not gonna make that play now. You’re going to wait until the Denver money pushes that as high as it can push it. Then you’re going to take the biggest number that’s out there.”

Avello is asked: At 6 o’clock on Super Bowl Sunday, where do you guess the line to be?

“I would say somewhere between 1 ¹/₂ and 2 ¹/₂,” he said.

The over-under number? “That’s another bet I’ve had up for probably six months,” Avello said. “I opened it up 46, and I got bet all the way to 50, and then it came back a little at 49.

“Even with the customers knowing that the game’s going to be in New Jersey. So I hung it at 48 ¹/₂, took a pretty good-sized bet to go back down to 48, and that’s where I sit.

“For me now, it’s just keeping a close eye on what’s gonna happen weather-wise that day. When we start getting to that 10-day window, I really need to start looking at that on a daily basis.”

The long-range forecast calls for a Cold Bowl, but not a Snow Bowl. But Mother Nature can be one fickle lady.

“If it snowed like it did for that Philly game about a month ago [against the Lions], it’ll probably drop that total down to probably 41,” Avello said, and laughed. “I’m kind of exaggerating maybe at 41, but if we found out that it was that heavy of a snowstorm, 6-10 inches, it would be quite a drastic drop.

Avello’s total factors in the temperature.

“The average temperature in New Jersey that day is about 22, 23 degrees, so by gametime, it should be around 15, 20. That’s what I’m planning on. But anything worse than that, I may have to change things.”