The idea, in theory, made sense. In order to promote team unity and keep the focus on winning, as opposed to individual statistics, Rudy Gay banned stat sheets from the Toronto Raptors locker room.
“Actually, it happened in Memphis,” Gay told The Post recently when asked where the idea came from, referring to his stint with the Grizzlies. “It just promotes teamwork, I think, because you’re not playing for stats.
“Nobody in there,” Gay continued, pointing towards the Raptors locker room, “is playing for stats. We’re just trying to get wins. That’s really the only stat that matters, at the end of the day.”
Again, in theory it is a move that makes a lot of sense, a sensible thing for a veteran trying to lead a young, inexperienced team to do. But when that veteran is Rudy Gay, the NBA stats movement’s poster child for an overrated player, it devolves into a punch line.
Over the past few seasons, Gay has become the symbol of the overrated, overpaid player in today’s NBA, defined by his massive contract – which pays him $17.9 million this season with a player option for next season at $19.3 million – while being a volume scorer who barely averages more points (19.6 per game) than shots (18.8) on a team that is 6-11 and in 10th place in the dreadful Eastern Conference.
Meanwhile, after Gay was traded away from Memphis midway through last season, the Grizzlies went on to make the Western Conference Finals.
“I think Rudy is a natural target because of his salary, and because his team isn’t winning,” said Steve Kerr, a TNT analyst who spent three seasons running the Phoenix Suns. “If you’re a max player and your team isn’t winning, or in Rudy’s case your old team does better after you leave, like Memphis did in the playoffs, and a couple years before that in the playoffs, as well, then you’re the obvious target, and that’s just kind of the way it goes.”
That’s definitely the way it’s gone for Gay, who more than any other player in the league has become known for the inefficiencies in his game. A volume shooter who struggles from 3-point range, Gay has seen his shooting percentage drop each of the past four seasons, from a high of 47.1 percent in 2010-11 down to 38.8 percent this season.
A big reason has been his shot selection. Gay is prone to taking contested mid-range jumpers, the most inefficient shots in the game. In addition, he’s struggled from 3-point range, finishing below 33 percent each of the past two seasons and at 34.4 percent for his career.
Gay accepts his role in the analytics debate, and says he is fine with however people choose to judge him.
“It’s cool,” he said. “However you want to choose to use analytics, it’s up to you. I think it’s a good tool, don’t get me wrong. It’s always been a good tool for matchups and finding different lineups. But I wouldn’t dissect someone’s game over it, personally.”
Gay’s game has been completely dissected as he’s been used as one of the prime examples in the argument that high-volume, inefficient shooters are counter-productive to a team’s ability to win. Gay’s argument is the stats don’t tell the whole story, either about basketball in general or his game in particular.
“Do I think I’m unfairly cast?” he asked. “Yeah, because the things they don’t keep in stats, I flourish at.
“I think everybody on the team would attest that they want the ball in my hands at the end of games, and when they need a basket, they go to me. Whether my analytic stats are bad or not, they like that [option]. That’s all that really matters to me. What comes up and all that stuff … of course I’d like to make all of my shots. I don’t shoot them just to try to miss.
“But as far as that, having respect and knowing my teammates will go to me if they need a bucket or they need to tie the game or they need to win the game, that’s all that really matters.”
That was never more evident than in the Raptors’ 110-104 double-overtime road loss to the Rockets last month, when Gay had 29 points and 10 rebounds in 49 minutes, but went 11-for-37 from the field. Still, when the Raptors needed a 3-pointer at the end of the first overtime to tie the score, they gave the ball to Gay, who went up over a couple of defenders and sunk the game-tying shot.
Kevin Pelton, a writer for ESPN.com who was one of the founders and editors of analytics-minded Basketball Prospectus, supports the argument that there’s value in having someone who can get off a shot in any situation.
“I think that sometimes the nuance in the message is lost in trying to counter the emphasis on ability to score and points per game that date back as long as basketball has existed, probably,” Pelton said. “So, to try and counter that, it’s swung a little too far in the opposite direction.
“There definitely is value in it, and especially late in games there are situations where you’re going to get late in the shot clock and you’re not going to have the ability to run a play. You’re just going to have to clear out and give a guy the ball and hope he can create a decent shot out of it. … I think that skill has almost been a little underrated at this point.”
That the debate over Gay’s value has evolved to this point shows the impact of stats and analytics on the game, because on paper, Gay is a prototypical star small forward. At 6-foot-8, he has terrific size for the position and is athletic enough to defend opposing wings, as well as being able to play power forward if you downsize to a smaller lineup, a frequent practice in the league.
But the real test will be what happens when Gay hits free agency, either after this season or next. In the past, a player with his physical package would be almost guaranteed of getting another massive contract. But with the new focus on efficiency, it’s possible he may not.
“I think it’s playing a role,” Kerr said. “I think it’s probably a more likely case that a high-volume scorer who doesn’t shoot a great percentage but can wow you with athleticism is probably more likely to get a max contract 10 years ago.
“I think teams are a little more aware of why they are successful now, and I think it’s helped for some people, like Gregg Popovich or Phil Jackson or George Karl, they can look at those numbers and say, ‘Duh. I already knew that.’ But not everyone sees it, so for some GMs, personnel people, whatever, maybe those numbers are very helpful on that front.”
Though the numbers paint a pretty clear picture of Gay’s game, Pelton said there can be a problem with focusing so much of the discussion on one player. And, given the noise that has surrounded Gay on the topic, Pelton can understand why Gay would grow defensive about it, as opposed to seeing the advanced stats could be used to improve his game.
“It’s always a little dangerous to identify with one guy,” Pelton said. “And I think that’s probably the unfortunate thing about this is the story has become not, ‘Here’s a different way to look at Rudy Gay’s game and his value, especially relative to his contract,’ as much as its become ‘Rudy Gay is a terrible player, and here’s why.’
“That’s what is unfortunate. I totally understand his defensiveness about it, because he’s not hearing, ‘You could be a better player if you improved your shot selection in these ways.’ He’s hearing, ‘You’re a terrible player because you do this.’”
As an example, Pelton cited Monta Ellis, another player who became famous for his inefficiencies offensively, now flourishing in Dallas within a flowing offense featuring a lot of ball movement. Ellis is averaging 21.6 points and 5.8 assists per game while shooting 47.1 percent form the field and 36.2 percent from 3-point range.
“You’d better be right if you’re focusing in on one guy,” he said. “I think the other example would be Monta Ellis, who this year is part of a very attractive offense, and there were people who indicated because of his efficiency he could never do that.
“But that doesn’t appear to be the case, and that’s another situation where the skill he was bringing, in terms of being able to create shots, kind of got lost over the obsession with his inefficiency. So you have to have those two pieces hand-in-hand.”
Perhaps a similar transformation could happen for Gay down the road, either in Toronto or elsewhere. In the meantime, Gay says he’s going to continue to do what he thinks will help his team win.
“If you want to win, and your team believes in you and they want you to shoot,” Gay said, “I’m going to keep shooting, and try to put my team in the best position possible.”
Season Losing Luster
What was supposed to be the most interesting and exciting season in the past decade or so has really taken a significant hit due to all of the injuries around the league.
Here’s a list of some of the players who have missed significant time already: Derrick Rose, Jimmy Butler, Danny Granger, Marc Gasol, Deron Williams, Paul Pierce, Brook Lopez, Tyson Chandler, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Anthony Davis, Dwyane Wade, Andre Iguodala, Steve Nash, J.J. Redick, C.J. McCollum, Trey Burke, Bradley Beal, Otto Porter and Larry Sanders.
That doesn’t even include Rajon Rondo, Danilo Gallinari and Kobe Bryant continuing to recover from major injuries they suffered last season.
For a season that had so much hype and promise, it’s been depressing as a basketball fan to see so many high-profile players miss so much time.
Kobe’s Comin’
Speaking of Bryant, it sounds as if he’ll return to the court this week, possibly as soon as Sunday’s game in Los Angeles against Rudy Gay’s Raptors.
It will be fascinating to see how Bryant adapts his game in returning from the injury, which he says he’ll have to do. He’s said that Pierce could be an example of how to adjust to a likely decline in his athleticism in the wake of his Achilles injury – probably the most serious injury a basketball player can endure.
One thing that would help Bryant is to improve as a 3-point shooter. He’s a career 33.6 percent shooter from deep, including shooting percentages of 32.9, 32.3, 30.3 and 32.4 over the last four years.
Given his immense popularity and stature, his return will become the most dominant story in the league.
*
The cancellation of Wednesday’s regular-season game between the Spurs and Timberwolves in Mexico City — a generator malfunction filled the arena with smoke and rendered the facility unfit to host a game — was rough for the NBA.
The NBA has worked hard in recent years to grow the game globally, hosting exhibition and regular-season games overseas. The Knicks played the Pistons in London last season, and the Nets and Hawks will play there in January.
But this week’s mishap was a missed opportunity to grow the game south of the border this was a rough one, with thousands of fans making the trip to Mexico City for a game that was never played.