The Giants got the skid-breaking win they needed against the Falcons, but their defensive collapse produced more questions than answers. They have a better team than the fading-fast Broncos, but the combination of the bad D, short week, long trip, thin air and return to the starting lineup of Kyle Orton all go against Big Blue at this level of favoritism.
The pick: Broncos +61⁄2.
LIONS (+101/2) over Packers: The 38-37 win over the Browns showed the Lions have a brutal D, but also that there is some life under Jim Schwartz. They’ve lost five in a row by double digits on Thanksgiving, but will surprise here and maybe even beat an injury-riddled Packers team that was the Bucs’ lone victim.
Raiders (+131/2) over COWBOYS: If we get the Raiders who showed up against the Giants (44-7) and Jets (38-0), we’re sunk. But like the chances here considering Tony Romo is hurting and the ‘Boys have just seven points each of their last two games.
SUNDAY
JETS (-3) over Panthers: The line suggests this is a dead-even game, but even though both teams are 4-6, the Jets are plus-24 in point differential and the Panthers are minus-46. The Jets are due for a game in which everything goes right.
TEXANS (+3) over Colts: Have been pointing at this game as the Colts’ first loss, and will stick with it. Houston had touchdown drives of 12 plays, 86 yards and 12 plays, 84 yards in the second half of a 20-17 loss at Indy on Nov. 8, and might be able to outslug the Colts here.
Browns (+14) over BENGALS: Bengals won the first meeting, 23-20 in overtime, on Oct. 4 and that accounted for more than a quarter of the Browns’ points before last week’s outburst. Now with a little confidence on offense, Cleveland again can be an annoyance to a heavily favored division rival.
EAGLES (-91/2) over Redskins: With Ladell Betts now joining Clinton Portis on the sidelines, don’t see the Redskins scoring enough to keep this close, especially because their D could be missing Albert Haynesworth and DeAngelo Hall. Eagles won 27-17 in D.C. on Oct. 26.
Dolphins (-3) over BILLS: Even with Terrell Owens’ 197-yard receiving breakout, the Bills scored just 15 in a cover at Jacksonville. That wouldn’t be enough against the Dolphins, who have some key injuries, but will benefit from the extra rest after winning in Carolina last Thursday.
RAMS (+3) over Seahawks: Rams have covered three spreads in a row, so we’ll take a shot even though Kyle Boller is in for Marc Bulger at quarterback. Better alternative than giving points with a Seattle team that’s 0-5 on the road.
FALCONS (-12) over Buccaneers: Impressive job by the Falcons putting up 31 points on the Giants without their top two running backs. Dangerous to lay double digits with the NFL’s 31st-ranked D, but the Bucs’ average margin of defeat in nine losses is more than 15 points.
VIKINGS (-101/2) over Bears: In their nine wins, the ultraconsistent Vikings have scored 34, 27, 27, 30, 38, 33, 38, 27 and 35 points. They’ll score enough on their own to win, and Jay Cutler’s mistakes will give Minnesota the cover in a tricky one to pick.
TITANS (-1) over Cardinals: Titans are undefeated with Vince Young at quarterback after an 0-6 start that would have shattered most teams. Cardinals have won six of seven and are 5-0 on the road. Effects of Kurt Warner’s head injury could hamper Cardinals whether he plays or sits.
49ERS (-3) over Jaguars: Jags have won four of five and the 49ers have lost five of six. However, Jags’ one West Coast game this season was a 41-0 loss to the 3-7 Seahawks on Oct. 11. Long trip on holiday week doesn’t bode well, and Mike Singletary needs a win.
CHARGERS (-131/2) over Chiefs: Chargers don’t have a two-touchdown win at home yet this year, but they did nuke the Chiefs 37-7 in K.C. on Oct. 25 and are coming off a 32-3 romp at Denver. Chiefs are poised for a letdown after shocking Pittsburgh.
RAVENS (pick) over Steelers: If the Steelers aren’t the Steelers without Troy Polamalu, what would they be without Polamalu and Ben Roethlisberger? That would be a tough way to face a hated rival on the road.
MONDAY NIGHT
Patriots (+3) over SAINTS: Definitely the game of the year on the remaining schedule. The 10-0 Saints are coming off a rout of the Bucs, but teetered somewhat in wins over the Dolphins, Falcons, Panthers and Rams. Pats should have given the Colts their first loss, and instead gave the game away. This time they finish the job.
BEST BETS: Jets, Titans, Chargers.
LAST WEEK: 8-8 overall, 1-2 Best Bets.
dblezow@nypost.com