Jason Bay (Neil Miller)
Let’s assume the Mets begin getting stuff right. They figure out the right person to succeed Jerry Manuel. They properly fortify their front office with better decision making around Omar Minaya or without him.
They put into place policies that better inoculate them from their closer punching out the grandfather of his children or their VP of Player Development ripping off his shirt to challenge the team’s minor leaguers to a fight.
Even if we give the Mets all of that — and, really, what are the odds an organization this dysfunctional can be so effective? — there are still so many worrying signs when it comes to assembling a contender for next year.
Part of it is financial. A second straight $15 million cut in payroll can be expected since one massive attendance plummet is almost certain to be followed by another next year. That would mean a 2011 payroll of roughly $120 million. Close your eyes, Mets fans, you probably don’t want to read the next sentence: Assuming they pick up Jose Reyes’ $11 million option, the Mets already would have nine players signed for next year at $118.5 million with their pro-rated signing bonuses included.
That is before they go to arbitration with Angel Pagan, Mike Pelfrey or R.A. Dickey, or before they consider free agents. So even if the Mets keep the payroll at the same $134 million from this year, no one should expect Cliff Lee to walk through the door. This is why you are hearing the Mets talk up youngsters such as Josh Thole and Bobby Parnell and Ike Davis. Yes, the Mets like them. But just as important is their low cost.
Consider that just for next year, Carlos Beltran, Jason Bay, Francisco Rodriguez, Oliver Perez and Luis Castillo make $69 million, which will be about the payroll of the Marlins. If the Mets could just snap their fingers and make those contracts disappear, they would. But they can’t. Instead, the Mets have five of the most unmovable contracts in the majors. The only way to trade any of them would be to either eat a large portion of those pacts or to take back a contract, at the least, equally distasteful.
But as you try to imagine how the Mets could fix this team for next year the problems go beyond the strictly financial. Consider these issues that will face whoever is constructing the 2011 Mets:
1. What is the rotation?
Among the Mets’ many problems is the existence of a Pollyanna streak. It was evident last year when they believed — against logic — that John Maine and Perez would be useful rotation components.
The picture for next season is not as dire, but the Mets have to avoid simply looking at the best-case scenario of Johan Santana, Pelfrey, Dickey and Jonathon Niese with Jenrry Mejia added as a fifth starter. Because even at its best, that is not a championship rotation. And what if it is not at its best?
Even if we assume the 32-year-old Santana will remain an ace, what is your level of belief in the rest of the rotation? Tim Wakefield has been the only long-term, trustworthy knuckleballer of the past decade. Do you think Dickey will be the same? I am a Niese fan, believing he will be no worse than a competent No. 4 starter. But what of Pelfrey, who again showed this season how quickly he can fall from No. 2 starter to No. 1 problem? And what of Mejia, whose development was stunted this year, first by the Mets’ unfathomable decision to use him in middle relief and then by injury?
The Mets really could use another top-of-the-rotation asset. But they have needed that for more than a year now and not found the aptitude, finances or farm system to land one.
2. Where are the superstar position players?
You can win a championship with an accumulation of very good players as the 2005 White Sox did. But the degree of difficulty climbs, and that Chicago club had exceptional pitching and enjoyed great rotation work in the postseason.
Now it is possible that Beltran, Reyes and/or David Wright could return to being among the 25 best players in the majors. But it has been a long time since we have seen consistent, injury-free brilliance from Beltran and Reyes. Meanwhile, Wright’s streakiness reduces him to more of a high-end complementary player.
There is no player in the lineup who projects pitch-around-him-or-else fear.
3. What do you do with Reyes?
Again, the Mets almost certainly have to pick up his $11 million option. But then what? He is a free agent after the 2011 season. Do you try to trade him? If so, you are doing it at a low-value moment: With just one year left on his contract and with concerns about his health and skills. Also, do the Mets think they can contend with Ruben Tejada at short?
Or do the Mets open long-term negotiations with Reyes? If so, how do you even gauge how to pay him? He obviously will want to be paid like a player capable of 60-plus extra-base hits and 50-plus steals. But that is a top of the market the Mets cannot risk.
4. What do you do with Beltran?
He is due $18.5 million in the final year of his contract. Perhaps he can have a strong final six weeks and build up some trade value. But he can lead the majors in homers the rest of the way and there still will not be a team in the majors that takes on that whole contract and gives even one good prospect back.
The Mets might have to confront eating a lot of dollars to make any deal happen or keep a fading, unhappy player around and create more problems by asking him to shift to right field so Pagan can play center.
5. Does this youth movement contain anything special?
Niese, Pagan, Davis, Thole and Parnell all can be contributing players to a contender. But none is viewed as a future star in the game. None projects to having more talent than Philadelphia’s Domonic Brown, Atlanta’s Jason Heyward, Florida’s Mike Stanton and Washington’s Stephen Strasburg, all of whom also were broken in within the NL East this year.
So, again, the Mets might be trying to win with an accumulation of very good players, but not greatness.