The Latino vote is the new weather — everyone talks about it, but no one does anything about it.
No one doubts the growing political importance of Latinos: The group now comprises about 9% of eligible voters and drives 51% of America’s population growth.
The story of the latest census, and the resulting reapportionment of congressional seats and electoral votes from states like Pennsylvania, Ohio and Michigan to states like Texas and Florida, has many chapters — the slow demise of Rust Belt manufacturing, job growth in right-to-work states, gaps in tax and regulatory burdens.
One little-remarked-on effect will be an uptick in Latino voting power. The percentage of eligible voters who are Latino is 15% in the eight states that are gaining seats, only 5% in the 10 states that are losing seats, according to the Pew Hispanic Center.
But Latinos are a relatively young group. So 15 million Latino citizens haven’t cast their first ballot yet. Maybe they’re up for grabs.
President Obama captured 67% of the Latino vote in 2008, but in April one survey said only 41% were definitely going to vote for him in 2012. As recently as 2004, George W. Bush carried 44% of the Latino vote.
Now “Latino support for Obama is tepid heading into 2012,” said the news site Latino Decisions.
“Obama has a credibility problem right now with Latinos,” Univision anchor Jorge Ramos, the Walter Cronkite of Latino America, told Politico last summer.
Latinos believe Obama should use his executive authority to slow down deportations of illegal immigrants, a radical gambit that the president shows no inclination to try.
So Obama turned up in El Paso, Texas, on Tuesday to make his pitch to Latinos. The pitch was a vague puffball.
The El Paso message? A path to citizenship for illegals is essential. (But the president isn’t proposing any legislation along those lines.) He’s totally behind the DREAM act (which he didn’t even try to pass until the lame-duck session of Congress and which is all but dead). He believes immigrants have made this country great — but he’s also deporting more illegals than George W. Bush did. And anyway, according to the president, the Republicans want the southern border protected by an alligator-filled moat.
This was a pep talk to convince Latinos that Obama is on their side, and Republicans aren’t. Latinos already largely believe that. Recent polls show bad news for the GOP among Latinos except in Florida, where the cohort is especially conservative. Last fall Arizona’s Republican Gov. Jan Brewer was re-elected with only 28% of the Latino vote. Brian Sandoval, the new Republican governor of Nevada, didn’t do much better at 33% — and he is himself a Latino. Gov. Rick Perry of Texas did better with 38% of the Latino vote as he was re-elected last fall. Says political consultant Andre Pineda, “the fact is that Republicans went on the anti-immigrant rampage and they still haven’t recovered and still haven’t learned the lesson.”
But is Obama’s El Paso speech all that Latino voters desire — some warm wishes and maybe a cookie at bedtime?
Obama talked immigration. Latinos are talking about foreclosure. An April survey by impreMedia/Latino Decisions found that among Latinos, 43% of renters and 37% of homeowners were worried about getting kicked out of their homes. The same poll found that 40% of respondents feel Washington takes their needs into account “not too much” or “not at all.” Pineda said that in a focus group of 40 Latino likely voters, only one brought up immigration reform as a top issue.
Obama talked to Eva Longoria. Latinos want him to talk employment. More than a third of Latinos are worried about losing their jobs. “It’s nice to get the respect from the president, that he is aware of the way Republicans are trying to describe Latinos as less than Americans,” Pineda says. “But what Latino voters want right now above all else is jobs.” And Latinos are disproportionately affected by high gas prices. They spend a full percentage point of their income more than the average on fueling their cars.
Even some seemingly strong areas for Obama look shaky. Polls say Latinos are very concerned about losing their health care, yet they aren’t sold on the idea that they’re protected by the Obama health care law. Only 49% of them support it, according to a February poll.
So what do Latino voters want? When immigration reform isn’t on the table — and right now it’s not even in the room — they want job growth. They want housing security. They want lower gas prices. They want, in other words, the same things everybody else wants. Maybe the next election isn’t really going to be about border-patrol alligators. Maybe it’s the economy, estupido.