The Phillies are operating on two planes with Cole Hamels, according to executives monitoring whether the lefty will be made available for trade.
They are entrenched in serious negotiations to sign the lefty long term. However, in the words of one veteran AL scout, they also are “putting their ducks in a row so that if they have to trade him and [fellow potential free agent Shane] Victorino, they could do it fast.”
Philadelphia probably has set a date — such as July 27 — by which negotiations must be completed or they have worked back into playoff contention, or else they will try to deal Hamels, who instantly would become the best pitcher available.
The Phillies’ greatest difficulty in extending Hamels might be the sale of the Dodgers. The new ownership has made it clear it will spend to make the Dodgers a jewel again and Hamels is from Southern California.
“I hate to use the tampering word, but I guarantee you that it has been made very clear to the Hamels camp in some way that if he reaches free agency the Dodgers would be willing to make him the highest-paid pitcher ever or something close to it,” another longtime scout said. “I cannot tell you how many people who have had dealings with the Dodgers keep using the same term: ‘They are going to make a huge splash.’ Bringing Hamels home is a huge splash. So unless Philadelphia is going to pay him the top of the market, why would he re-sign?”
The Phillies reportedly are willing to bid at least the same $120 million they gave Cliff Lee because the Dodgers threat has them realizing “their best number has to come now,” said an official who speaks regularly with Philadelphia’s hierarchy.
One top NL executive said, “The Phillies’ M.O. is to sign their own guys to huge deals. So I think they might push, push, push to sign him because if not, aren’t they pretty much signaling to their fans that it is the end of this great era?”
If the retention effort fails, the Phillies’ trade agenda will benefit from the intensifying AL West rivalry between the Angels and Rangers. Yes, the Dodgers would love Hamels now and so would many other contenders. But the Dodgers are not blessed with as deep a system as the Angels and especially the Rangers, who arguably are the two most motivated buyers this July.
The new rule stipulating that teams acquiring a walk-year player during a season cannot get draft-pick compensation afterward threatens to lower Philadelphia’s return. However, outside executives claim both the Rangers and Angels badly want Hamels and — just as vital — do not want the other to get him.
An AL personnel head said, “Philadelphia is in a good spot to play those two off each other. Texas has the better [prospect] inventory, but the Angels may act with more urgency.”
The Rangers never offered an elite prospect last year in discussion with the Mets for Carlos Beltran, who also contractually could not be offered arbitration and bring draft picks. Why would Texas behave differently this year and perhaps discuss top third-base prospect Mike Olt, whom the Phillies want?
“The Rangers have a loaded system, they just lost the last two World Series — are you telling me they are going to let a prospect or two keep them from putting Hamels in front of [Yu] Darvish, [Derek] Holland and [Matt] Harrison and going for it when only winning it all will make this a successful season?” an NL personnel head asked.
As for the Angels, owner Arte Moreno threw so many chips into the pot by signing Albert Pujols and C.J. Wilson the expectation is he will not stop now, especially with the neighboring Dodgers about to load up.
The Angels also have the Southern Cal edge in trying to keep Hamels. One scout went as far as to say Hamels could be landed for a package of outfielder Peter Bourjos, expendable with the emergence of Mike Trout, plus Jean Segura and John Hellweg. Both Segura (a speedy, toolsy shortstop) and Hellweg (a righty with control issues who can hit 100 mph and pitch at 95) are at Double-A.
However, under the new system, two personnel men said they would be shocked if the Phillies extract that much. Both said the Phils might be able to get the defensively elite Bourjos as a long-term replacement for Victorino plus one from among Segura, Hellweg and Kaleb Cowart, who was described by one of the personnel men “as one of the best third-base prospects in baseball, although he is a couple of years away playing at High-A.”
Cubs Dempster dive
There is strong industry speculation that Ryan Dempster will be the first significant player traded this month. One executive described him as “the first domino” to stir more trade action. Multiple executives described Theo Epstein’s Cubs as pushing to deal him, perhaps even before his start Friday because:
1. His value is never going to be higher as he leads the NL in ERA (1.99) by close to half a run.
2. He recently missed three weeks with a shoulder injury and the Cubs do not want to risk further injury and losing a chance to cash him in for desperately needed prospects during their massive rebuild.
3. The Cubs want to remove Dempster to more fully concentrate on finding the best trade for Matt Garza. Unlike Dempster, who can be a free agent, Garza is under control next year.
The Cubs might not move Garza because they might not be able to get enough in return to justify it, in part because there are plenty of starters available with a chance to bring more.
Cole Hamels and Milwaukee’s Zack Greinke are viewed as the best starters likely to be traded. Plus secondary starters such as Seattle’s Kevin Millwood and Jason Vargas, Houston’s Wandy Rodriguez and Minnesota’s Francisco Liriano could be had. And now the Rays are deciding whether to move James Shields and the Marlins are pondering whether to deal Josh Johnson.
As for Dempster, the Dodgers are currently viewed as the favorites, the Tigers as strong pursuers and the Red Sox — Epstein’s former team — as long shots.