Regime troops fighting rebels in the capital: This image from Syrian State TV shows government forces on the streets of Damascus. (AP)
It may be too early to speak of endgame in Syria, but four days of fighting in the heart of the capital, Damascus, underline what should have been obvious from the start: The Assad regime’s policy of rule by massacre has failed to crush the nationwide uprising.
More dramatically, the confusion caused by the fighting may have facilitated yesterday’s attack on the headquarters of the security services (the backbone of the regime). The attack claimed the lives of Defense Minister Gen. Daoud Rajha and Security Chief Assef Shawkat, a brother-in-law of President Bashar al-Assad.
At least a dozen other top officials, including two other generals, Hisham al-Ikhtiar and Muhammad Ibrahim al-Shi’ar, were seriously wounded. Later, the government announced that two more generals were also killed.
But who was behind the daring attack? Syrian sources offer contradictory answers.
Some claim it was an inside job — organized by the president’s younger brother, Maher al-Assad, to get rid of top figures who might have been tempted into staging a coup.
Defense Minister Rajha, a Christian, had indicated his unhappiness with Assad’s policy in a note demanding that orders to the army to fire on civilians should henceforth come in writing. And Gen. Shawkat, the brother-in-law and security chief, had been excluded from a family “kitchen cabinet” that reportedly includes the president, Maher, their mother and Bashar’s wife Asma.
Then, too, the recent defection of Gen. Manaf Tlas, a longtime friend of the president, indicated that the top brass is no longer as united as some assumed.
Syrian sources cite another reason why the attack might have been an inside job. Maher Assad had been scheduled to attend the fatal meeting, but canceled at the last moment. Regarded as the Assad family’s evil genius, Maher heads the notorious IVth Armoured Division — which has spearheaded most of the massacres in the past 16 months. He’s also the “patron” of the Shabbiha death squads that specialize in murdering the regime’s opponents.
Opposition sources, however, claim that the suicide attack was carried out by a “volunteer for martyrdom” who wished to avenge “the death of the martyrs.”
If so, then one must assume that a new radical Islamist element has developed within the opposition and may be acting independently. The Syrian National Council and the Free Syrian Army have repeatedly rejected suicide attacks.
Whatever the nature of yesterday’s dramatic attack, it is fair to say that the noose is tightening around President Assad’s neck.
* At least some army units appear to have refused to continue killing civilians. This has forced Assad to withdraw some elite units from the ceasefire line with Israel on the Golan Heights for the first time since 1973.
* Defections from the army and the ruling Ba’ath Party are reaching higher levels. At least four generals have switched sides, while over 100 party officials have resigned and fled to neighboring countries. Yesterday, there were reports that Vice President Farouk Al-Shira’a had dispatched his family to Jordan as a prelude to his own defection.
* Iran, the regime’s strongest supporter, appears to be contemplating the possibility of Assad losing power. Iranian Foreign Minister Ali-Akbar Salehi said yesterday that Tehran has contacted the Syrian opposition to discuss “a peaceful transition” in Damascus.
* Russia, another of Assad’s staunchest backers, may also be trying to hedge its bets. Its UN ambassador, Viktor Churkin, said yesterday that Moscow still opposes international intervention in Syria but added that if the Western powers wished to do so, “that would be their responsibility.” In other words, Russia would do nothing to stop action by a coalition of the willing.
* An emboldened Syrian opposition has toughened its stance. Previously, it had agreed to share power with elements of the Assad regime in the context of a brief transition leading to free elections. Now it insists on regime change, pure and simple.
But don’t write off the Assad regime yet. It still has some well-armed and ruthless paramilitary units recruited from among the Alawite minority and brainwashed into believing that regime change would bring revenge against them. These units could withdraw to a small pocket of territory between the mountains of central Syria and the Mediterranean and try to fight to the bitter end.
The only way to prevent further bloodshed is to persuade, or force, Assad to leave Syria, perhaps for exile in Iran or Russia.
Prudence dictates that Syrians and their friends start preparing for the post-Assad challenges that this heroic and martyrized nation is sure to face.