Vladimir Putin’s annexation of Crimea has triggered a crisis that goes beyond the fate of Ukraine as an independent nation. The world now faces the danger of Russia becoming a rogue state.
A rogue state not only ignores international law and norms, but also its own signed agreements.
Smaller powers have gone rogue in recent years — Syria in the 1980s, with its invasion of Lebanon; Iraq in 1990, invading Kuwait; Iran, by violating its commitments under the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty; and of course, North Korea on a host of fronts.
But Putin’s Russia could become the first major power to go rogue since Nazi Germany invaded Czechoslovakia with the excuse of protecting the German minority in Sudetenland. (Putin is also using the “kith-and-kin” excuse for his actions against Ukraine.)
By moving against Ukraine, Putin has violated not only international law but also a long list of treaties and agreements signed by the Soviet Union and then by Russia as its successor-state.
To start with, Putin’s moves violate 1) the 1975 Helsinki Accords, signed by Soviet Premier Leonid Brezhnev, which codified the principle of the inviolability of European borders, and 2) the 1998 Budapest Accords, signed by Russian President Boris Yeltsin, which sorted out relations between Ukraine and Russia in the post-Soviet era. And Putin put his own signature to new accords in 2009 confirming both previous agreements.
In a recent op-ed, Henry Kissinger tries to gloss over Putin’s rogue behavior by reminding us that Ukraine was part of Russia for centuries. That is inexact, to say the least. Ukraine was never part of Russia: Both Ukraine and Russia, and over 100 other nationalities, were parts of the same empire. By Kissinger’s logic, one could pretend that Great Britain could still claim ownership of the United States or India.
Under the tsars, the special status of Ukraine and a number of Muslim khanates in Central Asia and Siberia was recognized. The USSR, successor to the Tsarist Empire, acknowledged that specificity by recognizing Ukraine as one of its 15 constituent republics. Indeed, Ukraine had an even more special status — its own seat in the United Nations.
Putin’s roguish behavior goes even further. He has violated two sets of treaties under which Ukraine agreed to allow the Russian navy to continue using the Soviet naval facilities in Sevastopol and Balaklava. Under a first treaty, Russia obtained a lease until 2017; a second extended the lease to 2042. Under both agreements, Russia could not increase the number of its military personnel in the Crimean Peninsula or introduce new types of weaponry without Ukraine’s consent. Nor could Russian troops be deployed outside their base except for military exercises in specified areas and under the supervision of Ukrainian military. Nor could Russian military and security personnel intervene in Ukrainian domestic politics.
Putin has violated all those terms in the most brazenly provocative manner.
The United States and the European Union need to be very worried.
In the past few weeks, Putin has violated the terms under which Russia is a member of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe and ignored terms that enabled Russia to achieve a partnership agreement with NATO. Needless to say, he has also made a mockery of Russia’s membership of the G-8, which he is still supposed to host in Sochi in June.
Several of Russia’s near and far neighbors would also feel threatened by Putin’s apparent decision to go rogue. Russia does not have border-demarcation accords with China or Japan and maintains territorial claims against both. It has two treaties with Tehran under which Moscow could land troops in Iran to “protect its legitimate interests.” Russia’s borders with several other former Soviet republics are also threatened, among them Kazakhstan and Latvia.
Putin has already annexed chunks of Georgia without taming his appetite. He may try another land grab aimed at the Black Sea coast down to Adjara.
Having ignored so many treaties and agreements, will Putin hesitate to violate accords signed over the decades on a range of issues, most notably on arms limitation, including nuclear weapons?
Small states going rogue is one thing, a major power like Russia acting roguishly is another.