DETROIT — He started part two of rain-suspended Game 1 when the Yankees faced these Tigers in last year’s American League Division Series. Then he started Game 5, with the season on the line.
These days, the only item of importance Ivan Nova seems likely to start is hair loss, to one or more of his superiors.
The Yankees’ sophomore clocked another miserable start last night in a decisive 7-2 defeat to Justin Verlander and the Tigers at Comerica Park. Nova’s bad run (an 8.36 ERA in five starts since the All-Star break) ranks a concern, for sure, but the reality is these 2012 Yankees might very well be able to overcome an invisible Nova if he can’t rebound from his recent rut.
If you want to get really distressed as a Yankees fan, you can point to Nova as the latest domino to sway in what has been a terrible season for the organization’s young pitching.
Hal Steinbrenner’s vision for the 2014 Yankees stars a $189 million payroll, which counters the bulky checks of Alex Rodriguez, CC Sabathia, Mark Teixeira and (the Yankees hope) Robinson Cano and Curtis Granderson with manageable salaries from the likes of Nova, Michael Pineda, Manny Banuelos, Dellin Betances and Jose Campos.
Well, Pineda, 23, acquired from Seattle in January, has yet to throw a pitch as a Yankee and, having undergone right shoulder surgery in May, might never be the guy they envisioned they were getting. Banuelos, 21, has missed virtually the entire season with a right elbow condition. Betances, 24, has experienced massive control problems and was demoted from Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre to Double-A Trenton. Campos, 20, who came from Seattle with Pineda, also has sat out the bulk of the campaign with a right elbow problem.
The Yankees’ good news is Phil Hughes, 26, has bounced back after a tough 2011. Except Hughes can be a free agent after next year, so he isn’t really part of the 2014 conversation.
We knew Nova, 25, put up that 16-4 record last year thanks to some good luck and great run support. We anticipated a regression. And for long stretches of this season, to be fair, Nova has provided significant value as a starting pitcher.
When he has pitched poorly, however, Nova has pitched very poorly. Baseball Prospectus came up with the term “Disaster start” for a start in which a pitcher allows as many or more runs as innings pitched. With last night’s 5 1/3 innings, seven-runs debacle, Nova now has five disaster starts (out of 22 starts overall) on the season. He had four last year in 28 starts.
To summarize the previous five paragraphs: Yeesh.
“Everybody has their tough moments,” a sad-looking Nova said after the game. “… I’ve got to work harder, try to get the next one better.”
Manager Joe Girardi mentioned Nova’s inconsistent stuff and location. Russell Martin pointed specifically to Nova’s slider, which has indeed become a considerably less effective pitch for him, according to FanGraphs’ measures.
“It’s not one pitch in particular,” Nova said. “They’re hitting everything.”
The right-hander’s rotation spot is not in jeopardy, Girardi said, although really, the Yankees have no obvious replacements readily available. Andy Pettitte (left ankle) is weeks away from being ready to return, and the team likes using David Phelps as a long reliever. No one else at Scranton has earned a promotion.
A Nova uptick is hardly impossible. He put together a very good June, for instance. Yet the Yankees hoped after having earned that prominent role in last year’s postseason, Nova would be even more ready for prime time come this October.
Nova looks ready for many things right now. A demotion and a sabbatical come to mind. The Yankees would love to see him get it together not just for this year, but for the franchise’s future. They could use a positive development on that front.