The US corn crop isn’t the only thing wilting in the summer heat.
The box office at movie houses across the country is expected to sag at least 3 percent in the third quarter — an unexpected decline Wall Street attributes to various factors, including a strong Summer Olympics and the Aurora, Colo., shootings.
Lazard Capital analyst Barton Crockett yesterday cut his July-September box office forecast to a 3.4 percent downturn from a flat to 1 percent drop earlier this year.
The crop of movies this past weekend, including “The Expendables 2,” were below projections, Crockett told investors in a note.
“Every movie missed, perhaps due to lingering headwinds from the Aurora tragedy,” the analyst noted.
Even though box-office revenue on the top 12 movies this past weekend rose 21 percent to $128.2 million from the year-ago period, Lazard was expecting a 55 percent pop to $164.3 million.
“We were thinking [the third quarter] would be closer to flat, but Aurora has weighed on it,” Crockett told The Post. “It’s a disappointing quarter. It’s been coming down ever since ‘Dark Knight Rises’ opened.”
The drop in third-quarter ticket sales will certainly ruin the mood at Hollywood parties this summer.
A 3 percent drop in ticket sale revenue would follow a 1.2 percent drop in the second quarter, after the industry got off to a rousing start — posting a 23.4 percent increase in the first quarter.
A second box-office industry analyst echoed Crockett’s downbeat projection, saying, “We are projecting for a 3 to 4 percent decline in box office from last year.”
The analyst, who spoke on background because he was not allowed to be quoted by name, attributed the downturn mostly to the Olympics.
The analyst also said he saw two weeks of noticeable box office declines as a result of the Aurora shootings, which occurred at a midnight screening of “The Dark Knight Rises” on July 20.
Amir Malin, managing principal of film-investment firm Qualia Capital, said, “From the data I’ve looked at, I don’t believe that the Aurora shootings had any significant impact on box-office performance other than on the initial weekend.”
Anthony DiClemente, Barclays Capital media analyst, forecast a flat third quarter even before Aurora.
“We didn’t change our estimates — we’re still looking for about flat,” he said. “We are optimistic the box office will be resilient.”
Things could still turn around with some high profile 3-D openings before the quarter is out.
The higher ticket 3-D movie releases include “Finding Nemo” from Pixar and “Dread” from Lionsgate.
Even if the third quarter is a bust, analysts still expect Hollywood to cross the $10 billion mark — and pass last year’s finish — by year’s end.