If Americans think that our police action in Afghanistan is a war, they better think again. Not one, not two, but three red-hot situations are brewing around the world that could very well lead to real shooting wars, with ships, submarines, warplanes and missiles all firing at each other — and very possibly at us.
Unfortunately, this administration has no plan or strategy for dealing with what could be simultaneous conflagrations in the Middle East and the Far East — and our overstretched military may be unable to contain the chaos.
Barack Obama ran as the man who would restore peace to America and the world. Four years later, we’re now closer to a series of full-blown conventional wars breaking out than at any time since the end of the Cold War.
The first flashpoint that could explode in the next few months is Iran, where Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has told Israeli TV he fully expects to strike at the mullahs’ nuclear-weapons program before the American presidential election — some sources are saying as early as October.
The second is Syria, where after 17 months of inaction, President Obama has announced that the United States might have to intervene militarily to protect Syria’s rebels against dictator Bashar al-Assad. Assad’s allies Russia and China immediately warned that any US intervention would not be tolerated, meaning they could very well decide to jump into the growing civil war on Assad’s side.
China has also ignited the third hot spot by, in effect, declaring the entire South China Sea to be Chinese territory, a blatant act of aggression backed up by combat-ready naval patrols and installation of garrisons on key islands.
Japan and China came close to firing on each other in these oil and mineral-rich waters two years ago. Japan, Vietnam and the Philippines are now wondering what the United States, the guarantor of stability in the Pacific since 1945, intends to do about this Pacific Anschluss — just as the rest of the world is wondering where we stand if Israel strikes at Iran and triggers a wider Middle East conflict, or if Russia starts flying arms or even troops into Syria.
Now, Russia and China are principal players in all three crises, and that’s no coincidence.We are living in a world where the Obama White House has given Russia and China virtual carte blanche, including to keep Iran’s nuclear program in business and to block any action against Syria’s Assad.While the Russian and Chinese militaries have steadily built up their resources and strategic reach — including, in Russia’s case, sending warships into the Mediterranean and Caribbean — our armed forces have been bled by 10 years of fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan and four years of Obama budget cuts.
Moscow and Beijing figure that Americans no longer have the stomach for foreign entanglements, and while America’s vaunted military may still be large and impressive, it’s no longer up to sustained operations on land or at sea.That leaves them free to bully their neighbors and support fellow dictators like Ahmedinejad and Assad, without fear of US retaliation.And thus far they’ve been right.
What will a gun-shy administration and war-weary public do if American warplanes try to impose a no-fly zone over Syrian airspace and Russian MiG’s and surface-to-air missiles rise up to prevent it? Or if Iran answers an Israeli airstrike by blasting missiles at our warships patrolling the Hormuz Strait? Or if a Chinese submarine “accidentally” fires on an American frigate cruising off Vietnam’s central coast?
And what do we do if two, or even three, of these nightmare scenarios unfold at once?
Russia, China, Iran and Syria are counting on us to walk away. They sense that this administration has no policy other than putting off any decisive foreign-policy moves until after the November election, if then.
“Anyone who claims,” Obama has said, “that America’s influence is on the wane doesn’t know what they’re talking about.”Events in Iran, Syria and the South China Sea show he’s wrong, and that when the United States decides it doesn’t want to be a great power, it’s evil, not good, that gains — and war, not peace, that looms on the horizon.
Arthur Herman’s latest book is “Freedom’s Forge: How American Business Produced Victory in World War Two”