With a frenzied travel week capped by a visit to Tehran today, even as he pushes the envelope on relations with Israel, Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi is testing how far he can distance his nation from the United States.
Is this what President Obama hoped for when he titled his June 4, 2009, Cairo address to the Muslim and Arab world “A New Beginning”?
Morsi lands in Iran today after seeking new trade relations in Beijing earlier this week. His aides say the Tehran visit is just a few-hour “pit stop.” Yet at an Islamic summit in Saudi Arabia earlier this month, Morsi embraced Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, and now he’s becoming the first Egyptian leader to visit Tehran since the 1979 revolution.
So is it goodbye America, hello China and Iran?
Well, not quite: Next month Morsi will meet Obama at the United Nations or the White House.
Remember, Egypt became a US ally by signing a peace treaty with Israel in 1979. Since then, it’s been the No. 2 recipient of Washington’s foreign aid, including military assistance to the tune of $1.3 billion a year — without which Morsi’s still-fragile government wouldn’t last long.
Which explains why, despite animosity toward what his aides call “the Zionist entity,” Morsi is (for now) sticking by that peace treaty.
Yet Israel is increasingly concerned. Morsi’s recent maneuvers in the Sinai peninsula contradict the treaty’s letter and spirit — and America, the treaty’s guarantor, seemingly couldn’t care less.
A number of Egyptian tanks have crossed the Suez Canal into the Sinai recently for the first time since the epic 1973 Yom Kippur War. According to Egyptian press reports, Morsi plans to send in even more tanks, as well as rockets, helicopters and other assets.
And he’s mostly doing so with little or no consultation with Israel — even though, under a military annex to the peace treaty, Cairo must inform Jerusalem and get its consent before moving any military assets into the Sinai.
That provision was designed to demilitarize the peninsula and create a buffer zone, deterring future wars between the two countries.
But the Sinai has become a hotbed of terrorism, where resident Bedouins are allied with jihadists who constantly plot terror attacks on Israel. One such attempt earlier this month left 16 Egyptian border guards dead and their armored vehicles stolen.
That debacle prompted Morsi to vow to reassert control over the lawless Sinai — and Washington and Jerusalem quietly cheered.
Yet Jerusalem sees dangers in how Morsi’s opted to make good on that vow.
One reason: Morsi stunned everyone this month when he forced top military and defense leaders — men long known to America and Israel — into retirement and replaced them with his allies.
So Jerusalem fears Morsi’s next move will be to significantly alter or even scrap the landmark 1979 pact (as he’s long hinted he’d do).
That would harm the prestige of America, the treaty’s guarantor, and risk complicating our regional strategy by opening a new hostile frontier on Israel’s longest border.
To allay such concerns, Morsi told Reuters this week that Egypt is merely “practicing its very normal role on its soil and does not threaten anyone,” adding that his Sinai maneuvering is done in “full respect to international treaties.”
The assurance was somewhat incomplete: Morsi pointedly neglected to even mention Israel’s name. Nevertheless, Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman used the opportunity to invite Morsi for a Jerusalem visit.
Cairo laughed it off. It would much rather cultivate new friends in Beijing, Tehran and beyond.
All this has left Jerusalem officials quietly grumbling that the Obama administration isn’t forceful enough in pressing Cairo to coordinate its Sinai move with them. Washington is detached or unconditionally supportive of Morsi’s Islamist government, the Israelis say.
That’s not good. Egypt is again emerging as an Arab weathervane. In a fast-moving region, we need to know if it’s still our ally. If so, Morsi must stick by the letter of the peace treaty, a long-term cornerstone of our Mideast policy. Otherwise, lose our aid.
Morsi’s testing us. Unless we stop the drift now, Cairo’s rosy “new beginning” will soon meet a familiar old end — like some of Obama’s other early promises.
Twitter: @bennyavni