It’s the best game to watch, the best game to bet, the best game at which to tailgate, the best game to debate at the water cooler, and it’s here, finally.
It’s first-and-season for the NFL. It’s the great Peyton Manning coming back after a year away, coming back no longer as a Colt but as a Bronco, and we hope and pray his surgical neck survives the violence that is both Roger Goodell’s blessing and curse, the violence that forces the commissioner to walk a tightrope because it cuts to the heart of the fabric of this game and its ever-growing popularity and the ever-growing concern for the safety of its gladiators.
It’s Tim Tebow no longer a Bronco but a Jet, and Tebowmania in our own backyard.
It’s Eli Manning and the Giants defending their championship when barely anyone thinks they’re up to it.
It’s the start of the Andrew Luck Era in Indianapolis, the start of the RG III Era in the nation’s capital.
It’s Bill Belichick and Tom Brady still lusting for that fourth Lombardi Trophy.
It’s fragile Michael Vick standing, then scrambling in harm’s way to bring a long-lost championship to Philadelphia.
It’s plenty more Hard Knocks for Joe Philbin and Ryan Tannehill in Miami.
It’s Adrian Peterson trying to be Adrian Peterson again.
It’s Drew Brees trying to overcome Bountygate and bring a Super Bowl berth home to the Superdome.
It’s Mark Sanchez trying to hold off Tebow and Tebowmania.
It’s Cam Newton trying to stiff-arm the Sophomore Jinx.
It’s Rex Ryan needing to be the best defensive mind in football to have a chance.
It’s Calvin “Megatron” Johnson defying anyone to stop him.
It’s Sean Payton (and Gregg Williams, wherever he is) watching Brees try to overcome Bountygate.
It’s Tony Romo trying desperately to get over the hump.
It’s the unpalatable prospect of replacement officials jeopardizing the integrity of the game and the health of its players. Strike a deal, fellas.
As for how the season unfolds, understand that in the world of parity, there is a thin line between love and hate in the NFL. Between 8-8 and 10-6, for instance. Sorry, I just don’t find enough to love on the Giants to predict a repeat, and I don’t find enough to love on the Jets to predict a playoff berth.
The Road to New Orleans begins here.
AFC EAST
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
COACH: Bill Belichick
2012 PROJECTION: 12-4
2011 RECORD: 13-3
OVER/UNDER WINS: 12
ODDS TO WIN SUPER BOWL: 13-2
SERBY SAYS:
Brady and Belichick, Belichick and Brady, won’t these guys ever leave? Belichick swung and missed on Chad Johnson and Albert Haynesworth a year ago — yes, even geniuses fumble — but his gift this season for Tom Brady is Brandon Lloyd, who makes life so much easier for Wes Welker. And God hasn’t created anyone yet who can cover Rob Gronkowski. And Aaron Hernandez is a more nimble matchup nightmare.
The retirement of left tackle Matt Light gives Pretty Boy — and Gisele, remember to pray for Tommy — a measure of consternation because second-year man Nate Solder is his new blind-side bodyguard. Then again, Stevan Ridley could be the baby bull who gives Brady the kind of running option he hasn’t had in years.
Belichick hardly fears Rex Ryan’s Ground & Pound with Vince Wilfork and young linebackers Jerod Mayo, Brandon Spikes and Dont’a Hightower drawing a line in the sand. You can almost hear Tim Tebow saying, “You’ve got to give credit to Mr. Belichick.” Irrepressi-Bill has struggled for years to upgrade his secondary, so rookie Chandler Jones — and perhaps Jermaine Cunningham — can get in the quarterback’s face and prevent him from exploiting the back end.
DREW’S FANTASY TRACKER:
Assume you know Brady, Welker and Gronk are great fantasy players. Don’t bank on Ridley as starting RB. Do lean on Lloyd as starting WR.
BUFFALO BILLS
COACH: Chan Gailey
2012 PROJECTION: 9-7
2011 RECORD: 6-10
OVER/UNDER WINS: 8
ODDS TO WIN SUPER BOWL: 50-1
SERBY SAYS:
Oh, what these fans would give for four straight Super Bowl defeats. The playoff drought has reached 11 consecutive seasons.
“It’s time to close it out and win some games,” says GM Buddy Nix. Ya think?
Gone are the days when Tom Brady can stand tall in the pocket, write love poems to Gisele and target an open receiver downfield. Not with Super Mario Williams breathing down his neck. Not with double-digit sacker Mark Anderson in his kitchen. Not with DTs Marcell Dareus and Kyle Williams wreaking havoc inside. Yes, it’s good to be (defensive coordinator) Dave Wannstedt again. No. 1 pick Stephon Gilmore has the size to possibly match up on Aaron Hernandez or Rob Gronkowski.
We know Ivy Leaguer Ryan Fitzpatrick is smart, but is he good? Stevie Johnson will catch touchdown passes and hopefully refrain from distasteful end-zone antics, but Antonio Cromartie might be the second-best receiver on this team, too. Fred Jackson returns from a fractured fibula and C.J. Spiller can spell him and be lined up wide — or disappear behind rookie left tackle Cordy Glenn, who makes Rex Ryan pre-lap band resemble Pee Wee Herman. Scott Norwood returns as the placekicker (see, you weren’t paying attention)! Oh what these fans would give for a Wide Right from Rian Lindell.
DREW’S FANTASY TRACKER:
Possible increase in Spiller’s touches have pushed Jackson down in drafts, making him great pick in fourth round. Johnson is a good grab in middle rounds.
NEW YORK JETS
COACH: Rex Ryan
2012 PROJECTION: 8-8
2011 RECORD: 8-8
OVER/UNDER WINS: 8 1⁄2
ODDS TO WIN SUPER BOWL: 28-1
SERBY SAYS:
Let’s see: the Pats add Brandon Lloyd . . . the Bills add Mario Williams and Mark Anderson . . .the Jets add . . . Tim Tebow! Gang Green, still without a natural pass rusher, will keep the games close, often imploring the offense to “just hold ’em until we get out there” Tebow will be voted to the Pro Bowl as personal punt protector.
DREW’S FANTASY TRACKER:
Tebow’s presence undermines value of Mark Sanchez, Shonn Greene and receivers. God help fantasy players who draft Jets.
MIAMI DOLPHINS
COACH: Joe Philbin
2012 PROJECTION: 4-12
2011 RECORD: 6-10
OVER/UNDER WINS: 6 1⁄2
ODDS TO WIN SUPER BOWL: 75-1
SERBY SAYS:
The Hard Knocks have only just begun for the rookie coach (Joe Philbin) and the rookie quarterback (Ryan Tannehill). Philbin goes from Aaron Rodgers to Greg Jennings and Jordy Nelson … to Tannehill to Davone Bess and Brian Hartline. Child please. The best reason to watch the Dolphins? Lauren Tannehill. Reggie Bush aims to lead the league in rushing. He’ll have a much better chance of Keeping Up with the Kardashians.
Defensive studs Cameron Wake and Sean Smith will be on the field under the hot sun so much they’ll wish GM Jeff Ireland shipped them to Indianapolis along with Vontae Davis. Not to mention Karlos Dansby and Kevin Burnett, who have made the club, albeit in the tub. Philbin clearly won’t tolerate high-maintenance problem children but he’s barking up the wrong palm tree if he thinks he can try to field a team of Boy Scouts.
But hey, Dan Carpenter has been nailing field goals from beyond 50 yards. He might want to start practicing them from 70. Take heart, South Beach: it won’t be long before LeBron and the Heat begin defense of their title.
DREW’S FANTASY TRACKER:
If you rely on Dolphins for fantasy production, your season will be full of Hard Knocks, and that includes Bush.
AFC NORTH
BALTIMORE RAVENS
COACH: John Harbaugh
2012 PROJECTION: 10-6
2011 RECORD: 12-4
OVER/UNDER WINS: 10
ODDS TO WIN SUPER BOWL: 18-1
SERBY SAYS:
John Harbaugh would have beaten kid brother Jim to the Super Bowl if Billy Cundiff’s 32-yard field goal against the Patriots hadn’t sailed wide left. That’s why Justin Tucker is the new placekicker and Cundiff is a Redskin. Joe Flacco wants to be paid like a Top 5 quarterback, so it’s time to at least crack the Top 10. Offensive coordinator Cam Cameron promises the no-huddle will not reduce Ray Rice’s touches, and it would be folly if it does. Anquan Boldin’s best days may be behind him, but burner Torrey Smith appears primed for stardom. Flacco has his fingers crossed that 360-pound left tackle Bryant McKinnie won’t wilt in the up-tempo offense, because then right tackle Michael Oher would have to switch back to The Blind Side.
Terrell Suggs, who may or may not be back this season, will be missed, as will Jarrett Johnson (Chargers). Harbaugh and new defensive coordinator Dean Pees are hoping Paul Kruger and rookie Courtney Upshaw can hold the fort. The good news is immovable Haloti Ngata hasn’t moved, and Ray Lewis remains an inspirational Derek Jeter behind him. If Ed Reed doesn’t break down, the secondary will be a mine field for quarterbacks with Lardarius Webb and Jimmy Smith manning the corners. Jacoby Jones was imported for many happy returns.
DREW’S FANTASY TRACKER:
Rice is only reliable fantasy star. Can’t rely on Boldin, but Smith is a good backup WR.
CINCINNATI BENGALS
COACH: Marvin Lewis
2012 PROJECTION: 9-7
2011 RECORD: 9-7
OVER/UNDER WINS: 8
ODDS TO WIN SUPER BOWL: 40-1
SERBY SAYS:
They call Andy Dalton The Red Rifle, but he really doesn’t have a rifle of an arm. Herm Edwards would be the first to tell Marvin Lewis and offensive coordinator Jay Gruden it wouldn’t be such a terrible thing if Dalton turned out to be a red-haired Chad Pennington who could take a licking and keep on ticking. In A.J. Green, Dalton has the best receiver in the division, and in tight end Jermaine Gresham, a matchup problem for safeties and linebackers. But in Brandon Tate, a mystery opposite Green. “We do need a big-play guy when A.J. gets doubled,” Gruden said. They needed Jeff Faine when center Kyle Cook (ankle) went down and Clint Boling after losing left guard Travelle Wharton (knee). At least left tackle Andrew Whitworth is a stud. The verdict: the Law Firm (BenJarvus Green-Ellis) is hereby advised to run behind No. 1 pick right guard Kevin Zeitler and road-grader right tackle Andre Smith.
Defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer is one of the best. He’ll field an imposing front four once DE Carlos Dunlap (knee) returns to join bookend Michael Johnson and tackles Domata Peko and Geno Atkins. A breakout season from thumper MLB Rey Maualuga alongside leading tackler Thomas Howard and No. 1 pick CB Dre Kirkpatrick replacing Nate Clements opposite Leon Hall would make this a surefire Top 5 defense.
DREW’S FANTASY TRACKER:
Even if Dalton takes a step back, Green still should be strong. Green-Ellis should improve on his New England numbers from last year.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS
COACH: Mike Tomlin
2012 PROJECTION: 8-8
2011 RECORD: 12-4
OVER/UNDER WINS: 10
ODDS TO WIN SUPER BOWL: 16-1
SERBY SAYS:
The relationship between Ben Roethlisberger and volatile new offensive coordinator Todd Haley bears watching more closely than Erin Andrews (maybe not). At least deep threat WR Mike Wallace finally showed up to open up everything underneath for slippery Antonio Brown. With Rashard Mendenhall (knee) likely not back until October, RBs Isaac Redman and Jonathan Dwyer will try to provide balance, but either way, Big Ben’s small rotator cuff tear might get considerably bigger if rookie left tackle Mike Adams can’t protect his blind side.
Hall of Famer Dick LeBeau isn’t the best defensive coordinator in the NFL, because Rex Ryan has told us that he wins that honor. LeBeau needs recent No. 1 draft choices Ziggy Hood and Cameron Heyward to help DE Brett Keisel in the trenches, especially with rehabbing NT Casey Hampton on his last legs. Roger Goodell pal James Harrison is nursing 34-year-old knees. while Larry Foote replaces retired James Farrior at ILB. Ike Taylor draws the No. 1 wideouts, but Mel Blount is unfortunately unavailable on the other side. At least LeBeau can take solace in the fact that Troy Polamalu, LaMarr Woodley and Lawrence Timmons can cover up holes in the Curtain.
DREW’S FANTASY TRACKER:
Contract squabbles have made Wallace a draft-day steal. Mendenhall could provide a big push later in the season.
CLEVELAND BROWNS
COACH: Pat Shurmur
2012 PROJECTION: 4-12
2011 RECORD: 4-12
OVER/UNDER WINS: 5
ODDS TO WIN SUPER BOWL: 150-1
SERBY SAYS:
The biggest upgrade may be at owner, where Jimmy Haslam III replaces Randy Lerner. But also at running back, where punishing rookie RB Trent Richardson tries to win the approval of Jim Brown rumbling behind Joe Thomas and Alex Mack. And also at quarterback, where 28-year-old rookie Brandon Weeden has a much better fastball than Colt McCoy. But Shurmur again will be fielding an offensively-challenged unit if wideout Greg Little fails to emerge and rookie Josh Gordon is more bust than boom. Yet another rookie, Mitchell Schwartz, opens at right tackle.
The defense was diminished when linebacker Chris Gocong was lost for the season and man mountain Phillip Taylor (pectoral) was lost for six games. Cornerback Joe Haden needs to play like a first-round pick especially since the other side is unsettled with either Sheldon Brown or Dimitri Patterson. Defensive coordinator Dick Jauron’s most feared pass rusher is Jabaal Sheard. Ageless placekicker Phil Dawson laughs in the face of the
Lake Erie gusts. The schedule (home opener against the Eagles, at the Giants, at Dallas and at Denver) is forbidding.
DREW’S FANTASY TRACKER:
There’s Richardson, then a whole lotta dogs in the Dawg Pound.
AFC SOUTH
HOUSTON TEXANS
COACH: Gary Kubiak
2012 PROJECTION: 10-6
2011 RECORD: 10-6
OVER/UNDER WINS: 10
ODDS TO WIN SUPER BOWL: 12-1
SERBY SAYS:
To win a championship, Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson mustexhibit more durability than they have to date. Left tackle Duane Brown is arguably the best blind-side protector in the NFL, and thoroughbreds Arian Foster and Ben Tate won’t hesitate running left behind him and guard Wade Smith and center Chris Myers. RB Justin Forsett is a nice change of pace. The right side of the line is a mess with guard Mike Brisiel and Eric Winston gone.
Defensive coordinator Wade Phillips has been a godsend and is armed with more than enough pass rushers (J.J. Watt, Connor Barwin, Antonio Smith, Brooks Reed, rookie Whitney Mercilus) to overcome the departure of Mario Williams (Bills). ILB Bradie James helps emotional leader Brian Cushing compensate for the flight to the Eagles of DeMeco Ryans. Munchkin speedster Trindon Holliday is a punt-return dynamo. Shayne Graham starts out as the placekicker and Donnie Jones as the punter.
DREW’S FANTASY TRACKER:
Expect Schaub to post fantasy numbers similar to Tony Romo, Philip Rivers, Peyton Manning and Matt Ryan, and you can get him three rounds later. Foster and Johnson are monsters. Owen Daniels is great TE pick late in draft.
TENNESSEE TITANS
COACH: Mike Munchak
2012 PROJECTION: 9-7
2011 RECORD: 9-7
OVER/UNDER WINS: 7
ODDS TO WIN
SUPER BOWL: 50-1
SERBY SAYS:
Owner Bud Adams professes to be happy with new starting QB Jake Locker, but he would have been happier with Peyton Manning? How do we know? He offered to make the ex-Vol a Titan for life. Locker has a chance to flourish as long as Chris Johnson is closer to the franchise back who gained 5.6 ypc in 2009 as opposed to the diminished holdout who slipped to 4.0 ypc last season. No. 1 pick WR Kendall Wright is insurance in case Kenny Britt (one-game suspension) keeps imploding. TE Jared Cook is an athletic 6-foot-5 target. Guard Steve Hutchinson fortifies a macho offensive line on which Fernando Velasco replaces center Eugene Amano (triceps).
DE Derrick Morgan, drafted directly after the Giants landed Jason Pierre-Paul, has 4 1⁄2 sacks in two seasons. Defensive coordinator Jerry Gray needs pass-rush help from someone other than DE Kamerion Wimbley. Darius Reynaud replaces Marc Mariani (broken leg) as returner. The kicking game (PK Rob Bironas and P Brett Kern) is solid.
DREW’S FANTASY TRACKER:
Expect return to glory by Johnson this season. One-game suspension cuts into Britt’s value, but he still is good get in late middle rounds.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
COACH: Chuck Pagano
2012 PROJECTION: 6-10
2011 RECORD: 2-14
OVER/UNDER WINS: 5 1⁄2
ODDS TO WIN
SUPER BOWL: 150-1
SERBY SAYS:
They Sucked for Luck and lucked into Andrew Luck. Peyton Manning was 3-13 as a rookie, so the classy rookie franchise quarterback will get his honeymoon and learn his craft under offensive coordinator Bruce Arians, who bonded with Ben Roethlisberger in Pittsburgh. Luck was thrilled to welcome his Stanford TE Cody Fleener. Pierre Garcon is gone(Redskins) and Austin Collie is having concussion woes again, so Reggie Wayne makes his last stand. RB Donald Brown gets another shot at showing why Bill Polian drafted him in the first round. Hirsute Samson Satele replaces long-time fixture Jeff Saturday at center. Left tackle Anthony Castonzo will keep Luck upright.
Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis are outside linebackers now Pagano’s 3-4. Jim Irsay will be tweeting up a storm if new CB Vontae Davis thrives opposite Jerraud Powers. Warrior MLB Pat Angerer (foot fracture) won’trepeat his 148-tackle 2011 since he probably won’t return until next month. DE Cory Redding and S Tom Zbikowski have followed Pagano from Baltimore. PK Adam Vinatieri and P Pat McAfee figure to be busy.
DREW’S FANTASY TRACKER:
Wayne should bounce back after subpar year. Fleener is solid TE late in drafts.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
COACH: Mike Mularkey
2012 PROJECTION: 6-10
2011 RECORD: 5-11
OVER/UNDER WINS: 5 1⁄2
ODDS TO WIN
SUPER BOWL: 200-1
SERBY SAYS:
Blaine Gabbert added new meaning to the word skittish as a rookie, and there’s nowhere to go but up. No. 1 pick WR Justin Blackmon and ex-Cowboy Laurent Robinson give him much-needed weapons. Until further notice, Rashad Jennings is the starting running back and how nice it must have been for him to hear guard Eben Britton promise a line nasty enough to make Conrad Dobler proud.
The hope is that No. 2 pick DE Andre Branch can serve as a pass rusher opposite Jeremy Mincey. Aaron (Sonya Richards-) Ross nosed out Rashean Mathis at left cornerback opposite Derek Cox. Mathis, slowed by a torn ACLsustained last November, is the slot corner for now. Tyson Alualu and a slimmer Terrance (Pot Roast) Knighton plug the interior of the line, while MLB Paul Poslusnzy and OLB Daryl Smith are 100-tackle guys. Rookie punter
Bryan Anger was a shocking third-round draft choice. The return game needs work. Maurice Jones-Drew got in right under the wire, but when will he be ready to contribute?
DREW’S FANTASY TRACKER:
Jones-Drew is bargain if he drops to second round, despite contract issues. Steer clear of all others.
AFC WEST
DENVER BRONCOS
COACH: John Fox
2012 PROJECTION: 10-6
2011 RECORD: 8-8
OVER/UNDER WINS: 9
ODDS TO WIN
SUPER BOWL: 16-1
SERBY SAYS:
Have you heard? Tim Tebow is out, Peyton Manning is in. What, he didn’t sign with the Jets? Oh, sorry, the Jets passed on him, now I remember. Who would want a 35-year-old quarterback who missed an entire season following neck surgeries? Plural. Hell, the guy can’t run the Wildcat, can he? So it’s kinda funny to hear them talking Super Bowl in Mile High Country. Guess whatever John Elway is selling out there, the fan base is buying. Apparently Elway sold Manning on John Fox, the competent coach. Apparently Elway sold Manning on receivers Eric Decker and Demaryius Thomas, big targets who can run. Apparently Elway sold Manning on tight end Jacob Tamme, an ex-Colt. Apparently he sold Manning on Willis McGahee, a better back than he had in Indy once Joseph Addai started fading, Apparently Elway sold Manning on left tackle Ryan Clady.
Apparently Elway sold Manning on the notion that it is better to play with pass rushers Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil than it is to play against them. Apparently Elway sold Manning on Matt Prater, who can boot monster field goals. Denver, Colorado — Peyton’s Place.
DREW’S FANTASY TRACKER:
Don’t expect Manning to be at top of his game, but he will be good enough to start every week on your fantasy team, and make Decker and Thomas strong WR options, and open running lanes for McGahee.Look for Joel Dreessen to evolve into top TE target ahead of Jacob Tamme.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
COACH: Romeo Crennel
2012 PROJECTION: 9-7
2011 RECORD: 7-9
OVER/UNDER WINS: 8
ODDS TO WIN
SUPER BOWL: 45-1
SERBY SAYS:
The old champion Giants who remember Romeo Crennel as the defensive line coach under Bill Parcells will be cheering him on. Quarterback, quarterback, wherefore art thou quarterback? Much is expected of Matt Cassel now that he has been reunited with offensive coordinator Brian Daboll. So too has Peyton Hillis, who rumbled for 1,100 yards in Cleveland in 2010 and is the Thunder to Jamaal Charles’ Lightning now. And, worst-case scenario, a fail safe insurance policy if Charles isn’t the explosive player he was before blowing out his knee. Now let’s see if surprise 2011 No. 1 pick Jon Baldwin has matured enough to be a big-target complement to go-to-guy Dwayne Bowe. Parcells brother-in-law Scott Pioli,
the GM, was quick to add Kevin Boss to the tight end room with Tony Moeaki. There are no fewer than six No. 1 draft choices on defense. Play-making safety Eric Berry (knee) returns to help CB Brandon Flowers contain the Peyton Menace. OLB Tamba Hali is suspended for the opener but he and Justin Houston could be Batman and Robin on the pass rush. Maybe this is the year DEs Glenn Dorsey and Tyson Jackson live up to expectations, and maybe rookie NT Dontari Poe shows he is more than a 346-pound workout warrior at the Combine.
DREW’S FANTASY TRACKER:
Charles had plenty of time to recover from his knee injury. However, Hillis is likely to steal goal-line carries. Bowe is a good option as flex or third WR.
OAKLAND RAIDERS
COACH: Dennis Allen
2012 PROJECTION: 7-9
2011 RECORD: 8-8
OVER/UNDER WINS: 7
ODDS TO WIN SUPER BOWL: 65-1
SERBY SAYS:
Rookie head coach Dennis Allen, no relation to Marcus, tries to impose discipline on the league’s most penalized team. The late, great Al Davis demanded a Commiment to Excellence, so Allen and GM Reggie McKenzie inherit a Commitment to Pestilence. If Darren McFadden can stay on the field — big if — he can lead the league in rushing. If he can’t, good luck to Carson Palmer, because Michael Bush is a Bear, and Taiwan Jones is an inexperienced blazer. Palmer is hoping Darrius Heyward-Bey can build on his breakthrough 2011 finish, but the chemistry isn’t there right now with exciting Denarius Moore (hammy) and speedster Jacoby Ford (foot). None of the tight ends will remind anyone of Dave Casper.
The Giants liked Rolando McClain in the 2010 draft, but he has not lived up to the billing, on the field or off. Richard Seymour’s creaky knees need to be monitored, but Matt Shaughnessy is back to add beef to a defensive line that features Tommy Kelly, Lamarr Houston and quote machine Dave Tollefson. He may not be Jack Tatum, but safety Tyvon Branch appears destined for a Pro Bowl.
Allen can’t possibly kick about his punter (Shane Lechler) or placekicker (Sebastian Janikowski).
DREW’S FANTASY TRACKER:
Can rely on McFadden to be sensational when playing, but also can count on him not playing for several weeks
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
COACH: Norv Turner
2012 PROJECTION: 7-9
2011 RECORD: 8-8
OVER/UNDER WINS: 9
ODDS TO WIN
SUPER BOWL: 25-1
SERBY SAYS:
What, Norv Turner is still the coach? If he doesn’t get Philip Rivers together, he’ll get no more mulligans from Dean Spanos. And neither will GM A.J. Smith, whose quarterback has two fewer rings than Eli Manning, whom he traded away on 2004 draft day. Rivers doesn’t have deep threat Vincent Jackson anymore, so he needs Antonio Gates to be as healthy as he claims he is. and injury-prone Ryan Mathews (now it’s a clavicle) to stay on the field and at the very least make like a poor man’s LaDainian Tomlinson. Because you won’t get anywhere near a Super Bowl making your living throwing to Malcom Floyd, and what a shame it is that promising Vincent Brown will miss most of the first half of the season.
No. 1 pick Melvin Ingram, passed on by the Jets, is being counted on to help Shaun Phillips juice the pass rush, a good idea since the cornerbacks opposite Antoine Cason have been spending too much time in the trainer’s room. Jarrett Johnson arrives just in time to help slow Darren McFadden, Willis McGahee and Jamaal Charles and Peyton Hillis, and Peyton Manning had better think twice about throwing anywhere near omnipresent safety Eric Weddle.
DREW’S FANTASY TRACKER:
Rivers bounces back. Robert Meachem becomes his favorite target, outside of Gates. Don’t sweat Mathews’ early injury, sweat the ones ahead.
NFC EAST
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
COACH: Andy Reid
2012 PROJECTION: 10-6
2011 RECORD: 8-8
OVER/UNDER WINS: 10
ODDS TO WIN SUPER BOWL: 12-1
SERBY SAYS:
The emotional tug of Andy Reid losing his son Garrett will be an underlying source of motivation through the season. Michael Vick has worked on his accuracy, but his durability is forever a concern. Keep the flak jacket on when you face Big Blue, Mike. LeSean McCoy is a 1,500-yard dual threat out of the backfield, and WR DeSean Jackson presumably won’t be lolly-gagging opposite a stronger, healthier Jeremy Maclin now that Jackson has his new contract. The major question mark is at left tackle, where mountainous King Dunlap beat out Demetress Bell to fill the huge void left by stud Jason Peters.
Defensive coordinator Juan Castillo shouldn’t be under any more fire thanks in large part to new MLB DeMeco Ryans, and wave after wave of predator pass rushers (Jason Babin, Trent Cole, Brandon Graham, Vinny Curry, Phillip Hunt). CBs Nnamdi Asomugha and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie will help with some coverage sacks.
DREW’S FANTASY TRACKER:
Scared of Vick, prefer Maclin to Jackson. At least McCoy is reliable.
NEW YORK GIANTS
COACH: Tom Coughlin
2012 PROJECTION: 9-7
2011 RECORD: 9-7
OVER/UNDER WINS: 9
ODDS TO WIN
SUPER BOWL: 18-1
SERBY SAYS:
Always dangerous when they perceive a lack of respect, which is always, but here are my concerns: The brutal schedule, Will Beatty’s back, Terrell Thomas’ knee, Prince Amukamara’s swag and Ahmad Bradshaw’s foot. Don’t know who will be inhabiting the White House next June, but it won’t be the Giants visiting the president.
DREW’S FANTASY TRACKER:
Eli Manning is overvalued in Rounds 2-3. Hakeem Nicks is still a top WR, but not sold Victor Cruz can duplicate last season. Martellus Bennett a sleeper TE.
DALLAS COWBOYS
COACH: Jason Garrett
2012 PROJECTION: 8-8
2011 RECORD: 8-8
OVER/UNDER WINS: 8 1⁄2
ODDS TO WIN SUPER BOWL: 18-1
SERBY SAYS:
Jimmy Johnson believes Tony Romo is a Super Bowl QB, a clear indication Johnson has a direct line to Amani Toomer. The news that Dez Bryant has guidelines prohibiting — OK, Jerry Jones, discouraging — him from post-midnight forays into the strip clubs would seem to underline the urgency that the owner who can’t wait to kick the Giants’ butts is feeling these days. (It’s the worst possible news, however, for Mercedes, for Cinnamon, for Diamond. . .)
All seriousness aside, Romo has become a ten-gallon A-Rod, a lightning rod for fans and media. He’s either a champion quarterback or he’s not, and it’s high time he announced himself as one if he is. He’ll have old reliable Jason Witten (spleen) soon enough, Miles Austin is a 1,000-yard receiver if he can stay on the field, and Bryant is a physical freak. Dwayne Harris is needed to replace Laurent Robinson as the No. 3 receiver. DeMarco Murray has a chance to be a 1,300-yard back, and I’m not saying that just because he’s on one of my fantasy teams. The bookend tackles are Tyron Smith, now on the left side, and Doug Free.
Rob Ryan ate a heaping helping of humble pie, just as his twin brother did, but in his defense — his 23rd-ranked pass defense — he didn’t exactly have Darrelle Revis shutting down one side of the field. He’ll at least have a fighting chance this time against Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz and against DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin with Brandon Carr and rookie No. 1 draft Morris Claiborne at the corners giving DeMarcus Ware an extra second to devour quarterbacks.
DREW’S FANTASY TRACKER:
Romo is on par with Eli Manning in fantasy terms. Murray is a weak RB1 but a strong RB2. Like Bryant and Austin as second WR. Monitor Witten’s health; could be a steal.
WASHINGTON REDSKINS
COACH: Mike Shanahan
2012 PROJECTION: 7-9
2011 RECORD: 5-11
OVER/UNDER WINS: 6 1⁄2
ODDS TO WIN SUPER BOWL: 60-1
SERBY SAYS:
They hope to be shouting “Robert Griffin III for president” between now and Election Day. Let’s see if the Shanahans can remember how to work their magic (Donovan McNabb is betting against them). WRs Pierre Garcon and Josh Morgan join blazer Leonard Hankerson and Santana Moss with TEFred Davis a possibility to lead the club in catches. All we can be certain about the identity of the starting running back is it isn’t John Riggins. And the battered and bruised offensive line — left tackle Trent Williams (foot) is a beast, but Tyler (Goodbye) Polumbus replaces Jammal Brown (hip) at right tackle — won’t invoke fond memories of the Hogs.
Defensive coordinator Jim Haslett fields an intimidating front seven with OLBs Brian Orakpo and Ryan Kerrigan, already hazardous to quarterbacks’ health, flip-flopping sides on occasion. DT Barry Cofield and MLB LondonFletcher are difficult to run on. The secondary, however, is hardly elite,and Darrell Green can’t help. Billy Cundiff is the new placekicker. There are fewer worries about punter Sav Rocca. If they can sweep the Giants again, Hail to the Redskins.
DREW’S FANTASY TRACKER:
Shanahan ruins RBs Roy Helu and Evan Royster. RG III is a good gamble as backup QB, and don’t be afraid of Garcon.
NFC NORTH
GREEN BAY PACKERS
COACH: Mike McCarthy
2012 PROJECTION: 10-6
2011 RECORD: 15-1
OVER/UNDER WINS: 12
ODDS TO WIN SUPER BOWL: 6-1
SERBY SAYS:
First of all, give GM Ted Thompson credit for drafting Aaron Rodgers. Then give him credit for having the courage of his convictions to trade Brett Favre to the Jets, whether he knew the cell-phone-slinger hadtargeted Jenn Sterger as his go-to-girl or not. Imagine if the 49ers had taken A-Rod with the first overall pick. Mike Singletary never would have had to moon his players in the locker room! We know about Greg Jennings and Jordy Nelson and Jermichael Finley and soon enough we’ll know about No. 1 draft OLB Nick Perry bookending Clay Matthews in case Matthew Stafford and Jay Cutler have any sinister ideas.
The loss for the season of LB Desmond Bishop hurts, and defensive coordinator Dom Capers needs a cornerback to step up opposite Tramon Williams when Charles Woodson lines up at safety with Morgan Burnett. RB Cedric Benson was manna from heaven and an upgrade over James Starks. The new center is ex-Colt Jeff Saturday.
DREW’S FANTASY TRACKER:
Rodgers is the top overall fantasy player. Jennings is a good WR1, great WR2. Finley is overvalued. And Benson could be a huge draft-day steal in the middle rounds.
CHICAGO BEARS
COACH: Lovie Smith
2012 PROJECTION: 9-7
2011 RECORD: 8-8
OVER/UNDER WINS: 9 1⁄2
ODDS TO WIN SUPER BOWL: 16-1
SERBY SAYS:
The acquisition of Brandon Marshall reunites him with Jay Cutler, the prospect of divisional shootouts looming. No. 2 draft pick Alshon Jeffery is another big target, and Devin Hester remains a smaller, electric one. And don’t sleep on Earl Bennett, by the way. If anyone can aid the porous offensive line, it should be new offensive coordinator Mike Tice, who replaces Mike Martz. But good luck to Cutler behind 6-foot-8 left tackle J’Marcus Webb. At least Cutler owns a better backfield than Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford in Matt Forte and Michael Bush.
There are several Monsters of the Midway (Brian Urlacher, Lance Briggs, Julius Peppers) getting a tad long in the tooth, and No. 1 draft pick Shea McClellin is needed to help Peppers (11 sacks) bring the heat. Urlacher’s balky knee could be a season-long concern. Charles Tillman is the only bigcorner in Lovie Smith’s secondary.
Special teams coordinator Dave Toub has an impressive resume — Da Bears rank first in the league in punt coverage since 2007. Blake Costanzo bears watching. Placekicker Robbie Gould alwaysputs his best foot forward.
DREW’S FANTASY TRACKER:
Love the Cutler-Marshall reunion. Forte is undervalued, but Bush could steal TDs.
DETROIT LIONS
COACH: Jim Schwartz
2012 PROJECTION: 8-8
2011 RECORD: 10-6
OVER/UNDER WINS: 9
ODDS TO WIN SUPER BOWL: 22-1
SERBY SAYS:
For a while there, you wondered whether Motown’s playoff dreams might go up in smoke — marijuana smoke. Nick Fairley … Mikel Leshoure … Johnny Culbreath. Throw in DUIs from Fairley and Jim Schwartz, don’t you go chasing Jim Harbaugh to seek an explanation forthis. But I digress, Matthew Stafford, drafted four slots ahead of Mark Sanchez, threw for 5,038 yards last season. A mere 1,564 more than Sanchez. OK, OK, Sanchez didn’t have Calvin “Megatron” Johnson to throw to, I’ll give you that. And Stafford doesn’t have the slightest hint of the Ground and Pound at his disposal. But another 5,000-yard season is not out of the question if Titus Young and TEs Brandon Pettigrew and Tony Scheffler can make defenses pay for double-teaming Megatron. The backfield situation remains murky with Kevin Smith still injury-prone, Jahvid Best still dealing with another concussion issue and Leshoure suspended for the first two games.
Ndamukong Suh, of course, isn’t someone you’d be interested in discovering is your girlfriend’s overzealous massage therapist. Defensive coordinator Gunther Cunningham would be eternally grateful if Fairley grows up and helps Suh and Cliff Avril and Kyle Vanden Bosch harass the quarterback because CB Chris Houston doesn’t exactly have Night Train Lane on the opposite side. Placekicker Jason Hanson is merely entering his 21st season.
DREW’S FANTASY TRACKER:
Johnson’s at top of WR class. Stafford is among top fantasy QBs. Pettigrew is a nice TE in second half of the draft. RB Smith’s explosive but sketchy health is worrisome.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS
COACH: Leslie Frazier
2012 PROJECTION: 4-12
2011 RECORD: 3-13
OVER/UNDER WINS: 6
ODDS TO WIN SUPER BOWL: 150-1
SERBY SAYS:
Owner Zygi Wilf is on record as saying he expects to compete for the division title. If he says it again next year, they’ll be calling him The Wilf Who Cried Boy. Or something like that. Only a complete return to health by Adrian Peterson from his torn ACL and a dramatic leap forward from Christian Ponder will keep Frazier off the hot seat. Look for a heavy dose early of RB Toby Gerhart. Ponder should feed the ball early and often to Percy Harvin, a sure bet to give cornerbacks migraines. While Jerome Simpson serves his three-game suspension, TE Kyle Rudolph can help pick up the slack. No. 1 draftee left tackle Matt Kalil enables Charrlie Johnson to slide over to guard and fortifies a capable offensive line.
Purple People Eater Jared Allen doesn’t want to hear about fewer snaps to keep him fresh up front with Kevin Williams and Brian Robison. MLB E.J. Henderson’s leadership will be missed. CB Antoine Winfield better not feel 35 years old because bookend Chris Cook is a talented-but-risky proposition. Rookie safety Harrison Smith and rookie corner Josh Robinson have been instructed to prevent continued nuclear demolition by pilots
Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford and Jay Cutler. The release of PK Ryan Longwell has given way to what they’re calling The Blair Walsh Project.
DREW’S FANTASY TRACKER:
Peterson, coming off a torn ACL and MCL, is set to be huge fantasy bust. Harvin is overrated. Gerhart is Mike Alstott lite. Fantasy landscape is as barren as Minnesota tundra.
NFC SOUTH
ATLANTA FALCONS
COACH: Mike Smith
2012 PROJECTION: 11-5
2011 RECORD: 10-6
OVER/UNDER WINS: 9
ODDS TO WIN SUPER BOWL: 25-1
SERBY SAYS:
Matt Ryan needs to make it past the first round of the playoffs or they’ll start calling him Matty Vice, and head coach Smith’s hair will turn white. Matty Ice made a conscious effort to get stronger, the better to air it out with Julio Jones poised for a monster season opposite Roddy White, with TE Tony Gonzalez happy to pick up the scraps inhis 16th and final season. Life doesn’t begin at 30 for NFL running backs, so Michael Turner will be rested for jitterbug Jacquizz Rodgers, a weapon in new offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter’s screen game. Rookie Peter Konz is challenging at right guard on a suspect offensive line that needs left tackle Sam Baker to stay healthy.
New defensive coordinator Mike Nolan was thrilled when GM Thomas Dimitroff acquired cornerback Asante Samuel to help Brent Grimes and Dunta Robinson and safety William Moore cope with Drew Brees and Cam Newton. RDE John Abraham could use more help chasing the quarterback from LDE Ray Edwards, otherwise a Grits Blitz will be in order. OLB Sean Weatherspoon is the swaggerlicious leader, while MLB Akeem Dent has Curtis Lofton’s large shoes to fill. Placekicker Matt Bryant led the league with 93.1 percent accuracy. Return specialist Eric Weems will have to be replaced.
DREW’S FANTASY TRACKER:
Ryan is overvalued. Jones could be a breakout WR, at the expense of White. People are sleeping on Turner.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
COACH: Sean Payton (interims Joe Vitt and Aaron Kromer)
2012 PROJECTION: 9-7
2011 RECORD: 13-3
OVER/UNDER WINS: 10
ODDS TO WIN SUPER BOWL: 18-1
SERBY SAYS:
One Peyton returns following an entire season away, the other Payton leaves for an entire season. The replacement for replacement coach Vitt for the first six games is Kromer, Who Dat? The offensive line coach, that’s who dat is. But there’ll be no mutiny on this bounty with Payton out of sight but definitely not out of mind. As long as Drew Brees is unleashing Predator drone strikes, you’ll likely be seeing that ghastly Benson Boogie again. What can TE Jimmy Graham do for an encore? Plenty. He’s uncoverable. Robert Meachem is gone, but Marques Colston, Lance Moore and Devery Henderson remain. And even if injury-prone Mark Ingram doesn’t add enough rushing balance to the attack, just get the ball in Darren Sproles’ hands and watch him take it to the house. Here’s how the elite organizations doit — you lose Carl Nicks to the Bucs, you sign Ben Grubbs.
You lose Jonathan Vilma to Bountygate, you sign Curtis Lofton and David Hawthorne. New defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo replaces evildoer Gregg Williams, and wishes he had Michael Strahan, Osi Umenyiora and Justin Tuck from 2007 Giants. DE Will Smith, his best pass rusher, begins a four-game suspension. That means Cameron Jordan and Junior Galette need to emerge so corners Jabari Greer and Patrick Robinson can deal with Julio Jones and Roddy White, and Steve Smith, and Vincent Jackson. Incentive: The Superdome holds the Supe.
DREW’S FANTASY TRACKER:
Brees and Graham are worthy of draft-day bounty. Colston and Sproles are not.
CAROLINA PANTHERS
COACH: Ron Rivera
2012 PROJECTION: 7-9
2011 RECORD: 6-10
OVER/UNDER WINS: 7 1⁄2
ODDS TO WIN SUPER BOWL: 35-1
SERBY SAYS:
Cam Newton (21 TD passes, 14 rushing TDs) won’t fall victim to any sophomore jinx, but it wouldn’t have hurt if Rivera had landed an upgrade over Brandon LaFell opposite Steve Smith. At least TE Greg Olsen provides an inviting target. DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart are back to torment fantasy owners. Since there was no interest in trading for Wayne Hunter once Jeff Otah failed his physical, second-year tackle Byron Bell now mans the right side while rookie Amini Silatolu replaces Travelle Wharton at left guard on a line that a year ago forged the league’s best rushing yards per attempt average.
The linebacking corps has been dramatically upgraded with the return of Jon Beason and No. 1 draftee tackling machine Luke Kuechly. But DE Charles Johnson is the lone pass-rush threat and Captain Munnerlyn is vulnerable opposite CB Chris Gamble. Special teams needed upgrading and former Hamilton Tiger-Cat Justin Medlock replaced Olindo Mare as the placekicker and rookie Brad Nortman booted out punter Nick Harris. The schedule features non-division potholes — home to the Giants and Broncos, at Philadelphia on a Monday night.
DREW’S FANTASY TRACKER:
Newton will be hard pressed to duplicate last season, but it shouldn’t affect Smith’s fantasy numbers. Steer clear of cluttered backfield.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
COACH: Greg Schiano
2012 PROJECTION: 6-10
2011 RECORD: 4-12
OVER/UNDER WINS: 6
ODDS TO WIN SUPER BOWL: 75-1
SERBY SAYS:
Schiano is the new sheriff in town, the Tom Coughlin to Raheem Morris’ Jim Fassel, if you know what I mean. And a pair of Coughlin’s former aides, Mike Sullivan and Bill Sheridan, are the offensive and defensive coordinators, respectively. Sheridan will assuredly fare better than he did during his one-year reign of terror with Big Blue trying to replace Steve Spagnuolo.
The secondary appears to be a strength again, with CB Eric Wright bookending CB Aqib Talib, who may have finally matured, and No. 1 pick SS Mark Barron teaming with new FS Ronde Barber (didn’t he have a twin brother?). It would help if DT Gerald McCoy could stay healthy and help DE Adrian Clayborn rush the passer.
The key is whether Josh Freeman can get off the deck now that he has been bloodied. Unlike Mark Sanchez, who also regressed in his third season, help arrived in the form of gamebreaker WR Vincent Jackson, the $55.5 million man, mauler guard Carl Nicks and No. 1 pick RB Doug Martin, a 5-foot-9, 223-pounder who might just remind Schiano of his former Rutgers star Ray Rice. TE Dallas Clark won’t be the Dallas Clark Peyton Manning remembers, but he probably still knows how to get open every now and then. And No. 2 WR Mike Williams is no longer out of shape.
DREW’S FANTASY TRACKER:
If Martin slips, he is a good bargain. Can’t rely on LeGarrette Blount, Freeman or Jackson.
NFC WEST
SAN FRANCISCO 49ers
COACH: Jim Harbaugh
2012 PROJECTION: 10-6
2011 RECORD: 13-3
OVER/UNDER WINS: 10
ODDS TO WIN SUPER BOWL: 10-1
SERBY SAYS:
The overriding question: Is game manager Alex Smith a Super Bowl quarterback? We know now that Jim Harbaugh is The Natural, presiding over the rehabilitation and resurrection of a paralyzed quarterback lacking in direction and confidence. And now they’ve gotten him new toys — Giants Super Bowl hero WR Mario Manningham; taciturn Randy Moss; No. 1 pick WR A.J. Jenkins and explosive rookie RB LaMichael James. Frank Gore doesn’t figure to be a workhorse as much with Kendall Hunter and Brandon Jacobs in the mix. The offensive line will try to plow you all the way to Alcatraz.
Forget about running on these guys (DE Justin Smith, DT Ray McDonald, LBs Willis and NaVorro Bowman, S Donte Whitner), and if OLB Aldon Smith can duplicate his rookie season (14 sacks), it won’t be fun passing on CB Carlos Rogers and FS Dashon Goldson.
PK David Akers (44 field goals) set an NFL record. P Andy Lee was a field-position weapon. If Ted Ginn Jr. was fielding punts in the NFC Championship game instead of Kyle Williams, someone else might have been hoisting the Lombardi Trophy.
DREW’S FANTASY TRACKER:
Muddled backfield has led to better draft position for Gore. Moss and Manningham are solid WR sleepers, but don’t bother with Michael Crabtree.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
COACH: Pete Carroll
2012 PROJECTION: 8-8
2011 RECORD: 7-9
OVER/UNDER WINS: 7 1⁄2
ODDS TO WIN SUPER BOWL: 50-1
SERBY SAYS:
“Short people got no reason to live … they got little hands … little eyes … they walk around tellin’ great big lies. . .”
Yeah, yeah, sing that old Randy Newman song to Russell Wilson, Pete Carroll’s 5-foot-10 5⁄8 rookie starting quarterback who beat out Matt Flynn. Marshawn Lynch running in beast mode behind left tackle Russell Okung can help Shorty the most given his pedestrian receiving corps (Doug Baldwin, Golden Tate, Sidney Rice, Braylon Edwards.)
No. 1 pick faster-than-a-speeding-bullet DE Bruce Irvin would have been ordered by Rex Ryan to sic Tom Brady, but now he’ll get after the quarterback with DE Chris Clemons on the opposite side. The linebacking crew is the weak link, but big corners Richard Sherman and Brandon Browner and big safety Kam Chancellor and ball-hawking center fielder Earl Thomas could grow into an elite unit. Returner Leon Washington can break a game open. The schedule — Cowboys, Packers and Patriots at home — can cut a quarterback down to sighs.
DREW’S FANTASY TRACKER:
Coffeetown has Lynch and a whole lot of diluted flavors. No confidence in QBs or WRs.
ARIZONA CARDINALS
COACH: Ken Whisenhunt
2012 PROJECTION: 7-9
2011 RECORD: 8-8
OVER/UNDER WINS: 7
ODDS TO WIN SUPER BOWL: 60-1
SERBY SAYS:
Ken Whisenhunt doesn’t have a starting quarterback as much as he has two backup quarterbacks in John Skelton and Kevin Kolb. He also has a pair of injury-prone running backs in Beanie Wells and Ryan Williams. Studly Larry Fitzgerald openly lobbied for No. 1 pick WR Michael Floyd, but what’s the use if the quarterback can’t get them the ball? And it isn’t as if the offensive line will be offering much help — D’Anthony Batiste replaces Levi Brown at left tackle opposite rookie Bobby Massie.
The defense is another story, anchored up front by Darnell Dockett and Calais Campbell and linebacker Daryl Washington and in the back end by S Adrian Wilson and CB Patrick Peterson. Peterson only returned four punts for touchdowns of 88 yards or longer, and LaRod Stephens-Howling is a dangerous kickoff returner. Whisenhunt, 17-22 since the Cardinals lost to the Steelers in Super Bowl XLIII, very well could be on the hot seat.
DREW’S FANTASY TRACKER:
QB issues undermine Fitzgerald’s worth. Wells is trying to play his way out of a job. Williams is nice RB sleeper.
ST. LOUIS RAMS
COACH: Jeff Fisher
2012 PROJECTION: 5-11
2011 RECORD: 2-14
OVER/UNDER WINS: 6
ODDS TO WIN SUPER BOWL: 75-1
SERBY SAYS:
Jeff Fisher will show toughness and credibility to the Show Me State. The pressure is on the offensive line to keep Sam Bradford healthy — but have no fear, Wayne Hunter is here! Reunited with Brian Schottenheimer, no less! The receiving corps is on the opposite end of the spectrum from Isaac Bruce and Torry Holt, but at least former Giant Steve Smith no longer looks like a shell of his old self, and Danny Amendola has a knack. Now if No. 2 pick Brian Quick can develop into a big-play merchant, Steven Jackson won’t have to carry the offense on his shoulders.
Gregg Williams, who was scheduled to be the bounty — er, defensive coordinator — would have loved sending DEs Chris Long and Robert Quinn after the quarterback. When he returns in a month No. 1 pick DT Michael Brockers will be an enforcer inside and keep people off MLB James Laurinaitis. Cortland Finnegan adds playmaking mayhem at one cornerback spot. The kicking game will be placed at the rookie feet of PK Greg Zuerlein and P John Hekker.
DREW’S FANTASY TRACKER:
Amendola is a great bargain late. Worry about Jackson’s health. Bradford should be better than last season, but not good enough to make a fantasy impact.