N.O. PROBLEM AT ALL: Jimmy Graham and the Saints will cover as small favorites at Carolina. (
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Everybody wants to see strength-vs.-stength matchups, and largely that’s what Sunday’s game between the Jets and Steelers — two of the NFL’s better teams — will provide. But the outcome, both for the win column and the spread, could be determined by weakness-vs.-weakness.
On Sunday night, with the Steelers down 12 at the two-minute warning after Tracy Porter’s Pick 6, Ben Roethlisberger had one more possession. Instead of playing prevent, the Broncos blitzed, and sacked Big Ben on three of the four plays, leaving overwhelmed Steelers offensive linemen on the ground in their wake. Coach Rex Ryan will be blitzing coming off the bus, and he has the schemes and talent to put a real hurting on Roethlisberger.
Nevertheless, if Roethlisberger does get some time to throw, he will be going against a Jets secondary that may be without Darrelle Revis. And even if Revis plays, the QB will target Kyle Wilson, the Jets’ weak link in coverage.
So, how to choose? The thought here is that pass protection is king in today’s NFL. Nothing good can happen when your QB is on his back. The Jets’ maligned O-line protected Mark Sanchez royally against a tough Bills pass rush last week. Big Ben was under siege.
The pick: Jets +51⁄2
GIANTS (-7) over Buccaneers: Always wary of laying a touchdown or more with the Giants, and Greg Schiano comes back to Jersey with an apparently stout defense, particularly against the run. But the Giants need the game and have had extra time to prepare. Eli Manning will come out of the tunnel throwing, and this time he will get some big hitters instead of drops from Victor Cruz.
PATRIOTS (-131⁄2) over Cardinals: Backed by his best rushing threat in years (Stevan Ridley, 125 yards at Tennessee), Tom Brady now will have better looks downfield to his arsenal of receivers. Cardinals play a lot of close games, but not the home opener in Foxborough.
COLTS (+11⁄2) over Vikings: This would have been a great game five years ago, now it’s a battle at the bottom of the NFL. It’s also a very winnable home opener for Andrew Luck.
Saints (-21⁄2) over PANTHERS: Cam Newton will not be able to pull an Robert Griffin III on the Saints if his running game is held to 10 yards again. At less than a field goal, the price is definitely right on Drew Brees & Co.
Chiefs (+3) over BILLS: Bills opened last season with a 41-7 rout in Kansas City, so there is some revenge in play here. Tamba Hali returns from his one-game suspension for the Chiefs. Taking the modest points in game that figures to be close.
Ravens (+21⁄2) over EAGLES: Michael Vick is always living on the edge in terms of the hits he takes, and this week the mighty Ravens will be going after him hard. If Joe Flacco is going to continue to look like Dan Marino, it’s going to be tough for anyone to beat Baltimore.
DOLPHINS (+21⁄2) over Raiders: Dolphins may be too horrible for words, but they did beat Oakland 34-14 last season, and the Raiders have to deal with a quick turnaround of an early Sunday game cross-country after an extra-late Monday nighter.
BENGALS (-7) over Browns: Even with rookie QB Brandon Weeden going 12 of 35 for 118 yards and four picks, the Browns almost beat the Eagles at home. Those kinds of numbers get you beat by 20 points on the road.
Texans (-71⁄2) over JAGUARS: Blaine Gabbert showed us something with his comeback and late TD pass that should have beaten the Vikings. But these teams are in two different stratospheres talent-wise.
Cowboys (-3) over SEAHAWKS: Tony Romo was sensational against the Giants, nothing less. This is always a tough trip for any team to make, but the Cowboys do it with a week-and-a-half rest.
Redskins (-3) over RAMS: Keep it coming, Mr. Robert Griffin III! The other Redskins rookie, Albert Morris (96 yards and 2 TDs vs, Saints) isn’t too bad either.
CHARGERS (-6) over Titans: Usually like the Titans at this kind of price, but Jake Locker will try to play with a separated shoulder. Like Raiders, Chargers have quick turnaround but without the travel concerns.
Lions (+61⁄2) over 49ERS: Everyone remembers last year’s Niners-Lions game for the coaches’ confrontation at the end, but that overshadowed a wonderfully combative battle the Niners won with a late comeback. Expecting the same, so taking some big points.
MONDAY NIGHT
FALCONS (-3) over Broncos: Peyton Manning is the reason the Broncos are getting only three in a tough road game, compared with the near-TD spreads the Jets and Lions are receiving. Atlanta’s a bargain at this price.
BEST BETS: Saints, Cowboys, Redskins
LOCK OF THE WEEK: Saints (Locks 0-1 in 2012)
LAST NIGHT: Packers (W)
LAST WEEK: 8-8 overall, 1-2 Best Bets.
dblezow@nypost.com