Today
Redskins (+2 1/2) over BUCCANEERS: Washington’s form has often tied Masters-of-the-Obvious pundits in knots, and the presence of hotshot rookie QB Robert Griffin III figures to exacerbate the trend. Do you really want to give points to this guy? Bucs have covered every number dished out so far, but now that Tampa’s actually favored at home, look to the dangerous running QB who can make things happen.
49ers (-4) over JETS: Niners no-show at Minnesota essentially made Vegas’ Sunday. Now, we get the rebound. Gang Green have history of tossing subpar efforts when not expected to win Swamp games vs. NFC foes, and this should be no different with Darrelle Revis out for the year, and Mark Sanchez (and Carson Palmer and Matt Cassel and Matt Leinart) following the precedent of disappointment established by modern ex-Southern Cal quarterbacks.
Giants (+2) over EAGLES: These outfits delight in fouling one another’s nests. Big Blue, off their Thursday-night rout at Carolina, are fresher … and the crisis of confidence engulfing the fragile Mike Vick is never-ending.
Patriots (-4) over BILLS: This hangs on whether you believe in Buffalo’s bullish 2012 scenario. We do not. Distrust of turnover-prone Ryan Fitzpatrick lingers.
It’s been a while since Patriots’ Super triumph, but a severe class diffential remains, despite injured NE skill people.
Vikings (+4 1/2) over LIONS: Market hasn’t been altered sufficiently to force us onto wholly undisciplined, defensively-slovenly Lions. With an improving Christian Ponder, and Adrian Peterson back in harness, grabbing points with Purple Gang against home-side offense dealing with banged-up QB Matthew Stafford (strained right-leg muscle).
FALCONS (-7) over Panthers: Cam Newton’s personal deportment rating leaves something to be desired maturity-wise, the Panther defense’s inability to finish off games remains a concern, and their deficient pass rush is money from home if Matt Ryan remains on his best behavior.
CHIEFS (-1) over Chargers: Bolts managed to spindle and mutilate the Raiders and Titans, but failed to answer the wakeup call vs. Falcons. These performances suggest another mediocre seasonal first half — long- habitual, under Norv Turner. That leaves us all over the Big Red Chiefs on their strong home field. We’re hopeful loss of center Rodney Hudson won’t stymie Matt Cassel.
TEXANS (-12) over Titans: You can’t Einstein most NFL games in this price range. But Houston braintrust has waited patiently for a talent base as sound as this to facilitate their running roughshod through a season (given minimal injury hindrances), and can’t see Titans doing much about it, even should Kenny Britt return.
RAMS (+2 1/2) over Seahawks: Maybe Mighty-Mite Russell Wilson will be the first rookie NFL QB to actually win a game as the chalk this year, but can’t go that way, given a home dog boasting a healthy Sam Bradford and yet another of the league’s most-improved defenses.
Dolphins (+5 1/2) over CARDINALS: Though we obviously respect their punishing defense, having extracted full value from Arizona the past two Sundays, must note Cards have come a long way in a short time. Jets dinged Reggie Bush’s left knee, but so long as he’s fit for at least spot duty, envision a tight one.
Raiders (+6 1/2) over BRONCOS: So, so tricky, since Raiders are fresh from epic crusade game (The lighting of Al Davis’ eternal flame? Against the Steelers? Word). But visitor’s long been potent divisional dog. We’ll fade line move and the excessive affection for Peyton Manning.
Bengals (-2 1/2) over JAGUARS: Andy Dalton and friends should flat-out ring it up against this foe, given Dalton’s multiple wideout weapons. Doubt Blaine Gabbert can keep pace, even within these friendly confines.
Saints (+7 1/2) over PACKERS: In this clash featuring two hungry big-rep outfits, grant gaping matchup edge to visitor in light of fact iffy Packers running game is scant threat to mediocre Saints rush defense. It doesn’t appear as if Green Bay will be peaking soon, this time around.
TOMORROW
Bears (+3 1/2) over COWBOYS: Both sides find themselves inhabiting scenarios foretelling broad underperformance, which strongly suggests an ugly contest. Given their Candyland schedule — is anyone’s slate easier? — expect Bears to display sense of urgency. Dallas special teams remain unfocused, and Jason Witten’s already chalked up a half-dozen clear drops in three games. Cowboys defense could win this, but would be reluctant to lay on that basis, alone. Tab Bear RB Matt Forte’s status
LAST WEEK: 6-9. SEASON: 18-25-2.
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