SAY my brethren, in their wisdom, had decided 75 years ago the Triple Crown was runs, stolen bases and batting average. Then, even now, we would be wondering if Mike Trout could add the few points necessary in average to become the first player to win the Triple Crown since the Yankees’ Snuffy Stirnweiss in 1945.
Or, say the stats revolution arrived back then and moved the creators of the Triple Crown to make the requisite categories Runs Created Against Average (RCAA), Wins Above Replacement (WAR) and Value Over Replacement Player (VORP). Then we would be hailing Trout as pretty much a runaway Triple Crown winner.
The point is the Triple Crown is a man-made concept, not something given to us from a burning bush. When it was formulated, batting average and RBIs were king. Today we know, for example, that a player who hits .305 with a .330 on-base percentage is not as valuable as a player who hits .275 with a .400 on-base percentage.
We know that a major factor in Miguel Cabrera leading the AL in RBIs is that he also leads the league (by 13) in at-bats with runners in scoring position (171), while Trout (105) is seventh on his own team. Thus, even though Trout has nearly as good an OPS (.939) as Cabrera (.979) in those situations, when it comes to RBIs, opportunity matters, and Cabrera has had way more opportunities hitting third than Trout has batting leadoff.
Look, this is not meant to debase Cabrera’s potential Triple Crown or season. I do not think it is an insult, by the way, to say someone is the second-most valuable player in a league. But this is about embracing modernity. We know a lot more about how to size up a whole player — offense, defense, baserunning — than we did when Carl Yastrzemski roamed Fenway. And when you do that, Trout is not only the best overall player in the AL, he is the most valuable.
What if Cabrera carries Detroit to the playoffs and the Angels miss? I do take the “Valuable” part earnestly and what should be valued above all else in this sport is winning — and those who make that most possible. But, first, I do not want to overvalue the Tigers underachieving their way atop the majors’ worst division. And I do not want to hold it against Trout that his bosses’ incompetence kept him in the minors for three weeks to open the year, potentially costing the Angels a playoff spot.
While Trout was a member of the Salt Lake Bees, the Angels (6-14) were tied for the AL’s second-worst record. They had the best record (81-55) since his promotion. The player most responsible for that surge just might be the best defensive player and baserunner in the league and in the handful of best offensive players when you consider the full array of attributes for offense, not just homers, RBIs and batting average — though Trout’s 29 homers/79 RBIs/.321 average are hardly the stuff of embarrassment. His value runneth over in every way.
MVP: 1. Trout. 2. Cabrera.
3. Adrian Beltre, Rangers.
4. Adam Jones, Orioles.
5. Derek Jeter, Yankees.
ANTI-MVP: Yunel Escobar, Blue Jays
He combined bad player with bad actor with his disruptive, embarrassing behavior by putting a homophobic term on his eye black. I was tempted to include Vernon Wells because it was his contract that kept him playing early in the year and kept Trout in the minors. But, again, that is a failing of Angels management.
2. Michael Young, Rangers.
3. Chone Figgins, Mariners.
4. Jeff Francoeur, Royals. 5. Eric Hosmer, Royals.
CY YOUNG: Justin Verlander, Tigers
I think Verlander’s greatest obstacle is Justin Verlander. His 2011 was so good (he also won the AL MVP) that he is being compared to that rather than to the 2012 field. Also, there is an inclination to avoid a repeat unless it is clear cut. And this is not clear cut. Tampa’s David Price has had a great year. But Verlander has thrown more innings, has a better strikeout rate, has a better walk-to-strikeout rate, has held hitters to a lower average, and while Price’s ERA is lower, it is not when adjusted for ballpark. Once that is done Verlander leads the AL.
2. Price. 3. Felix Hernandez, Mariners. 4. Fernando Rodney, Rays. 5. Jered Weaver, Angels.
ANTI-CY YOUNG: The Red Sox
Clay Buchholz, Junichi Tazawa, Andrew Miller and maybe one or two others do not have to be part of the group photo. But when it came to injured, ineffective and insubordinate, you really have to admire how this contingent worked together. Daniel Bard as a starter? Alfredo Aceves as a closer? Mark Melancon as a late-inning piece in the AL East? Josh Beckett as a leader? Jon Lester as an ace? Andrew Bailey as an acquisition for Josh Reddick?
2. Ricky Romero, Blue Jays.
3. Ubaldo Jimenez, Indians. 4. Bartolo Colon, A’s. 5. Roy Oswalt, Rangers.
AL ROOKIE OF THE YEAR: Trout
That was easy. And so was picking two-through-four in some order with Oakland’s Yoenis Cespedes and Texas’ Yu Darvish — two high-priced imports gone well — plus Cespedes’ A’s teammate Jarrod Parker. The fifth place is trickier because there were so many fine first-year showings from candidates such as Boston’s Will Middlebrooks, Minnesota’s Scott Diamond, Baltimore’s Wei-Yin Chen, Chicago’s Jose Quintana, Nate Jones and Addison Reed, and the Yankees’ David Phelps. Also, a late call up will keep Baltimore’s Manny Machado from this discussion. But would anyone be surprised if Machado played in as many All-Star Games in his career as Trout?
But I am giving fifth place to the A’s for being contenders with a season-ending rotation made up entirely of rookies (Parker, A.J. Griffin, Tommy Milone, Travis Blackley, Dan Straily) and a lineup loaded with them, as well (Cespedes, Chris Carter, Josh Donaldson, Derek Norris, Collin Cowgill).
2. Cespedes. 3. Darvish.
4. Parker. 5. A’s.
AL MANAGER OF THE YEAR: Buck Showalter, Orioles
You can’t go wrong with Showalter, Chicago’s Robin Ventura, Oakland’s Bob Melvin or Tampa Bay’s Joe Maddon. I favor Showalter because he had to overcome two decades of hardened losing, dubious ownership and lack of a set rotation (12 starters, just one with more than 20 starts).
2. Melvin. 3. Ventura. 4. Maddon. 5. Joe Girardi, Yankees.