Sen. Scott Brown
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What if the decision is . . . both, and neither?
As Democrats battle to hang onto their 53-47 majority in the US Senate and Republicans look for a late surge in key races to net them the four seats they need to take control of the chamber, there is a distinct possibility that the parties could wake up on Nov. 7 each holding 50 seats.
It’s happened before — in the razor-thin 2000 election that saw George W. Bush win an Electoral College victory even as he lost the national popular vote. And like the aftermath of that election, when Vice President Dick Cheney’s tie-breaking vote as Senate president handed all of the committee gavels to the Republicans, the winner of the upcoming presidential election could have lasting implications for the balance of power in Washington.
While the House is almost certain to stay in Republican hands, the Senate is — like the presidential race — too close to call.
“There are so many close races that a 50-50 Senate is a very real scenario,” said Nathan Gonzales, deputy editor of the nonpartisan Rothenberg Political Report, which analyzes congressional campaigns.
Political forecasters are more bullish on the Democrats’ prospects of holding the Senate than they were just a few months ago, when it appeared as though a lopsided playing field that favored the Republicans was poised to demote Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada, elevating in his place the current minority leader, Sen. Mitch McConnell of Kentucky.
A combination of strong fundraising and GOP missteps (see Rep. Todd Akin, the flailing GOP nominee in Missouri) have helped to brighten the outlook for Democrats. But the Republicans, while acknowledging their longer odds, have far from ceded.
Roll Call rates seven Senate contests as “toss-ups,” RealClearPolitics.com rates eight. On everyone’s list is Massachusetts, where charismatic Sen. Scott Brown (R) is looking to defy the political odds by winning re-election despite running in a presidential year in a heavily Democratic state. First, he’ll have to get past Harvard Professor Elizabeth Warren, an Obama administration alumnus.
Want a clue as to whether Republicans are having a good night on Nov. 6?
Watch Connecticut, where former wrestling executive Linda McMahon, who ran two years ago for the other Senate seat, has come on strong since the late summer and has even led Democratic Rep. Christopher Murphy in some recent public polls. McMahon’s ads have been hard-hitting, and Murphy has stumbled. But to win, McMahon will have to overcome the Democratic bent of her state, which is set to re-elect President Obama, although by a smaller margin than Massachusetts.
Other toss-ups to watch on Election Day include:
Nevada: Republican Sen. Dean Heller, who was appointed to his post in 2011, is facing a stiff challenge from Democratic Rep. Shelley Berkley, who would appear too liberal for the Silver State but has been boosted by Reid’s strong voter-turnout machine.
Virginia: The Senate race between George Allen (R) and Tim Kaine (D) is among the tightest in the country. Both candidates are former governors, and Allen served in the Senate until being ousted by retiring Sen. Jim Webb (D) in 2006.
Kaine, who served as Obama’s first Democratic National Committee Chairman, is probably the only Democrat that could have kept the race this close in this economic environment (he has actually led in most recent public polls). Allen’s prospects are probably joined to Romney’s: If the Republican nominee wins the Old Dominion’s electoral votes, he’ll probably pull Allen across the finish line. Outside money abounds in this race.
Wisconsin: Republicans caught a break when former four-term Gov. Tommy Thompson won a competitive GOP primary, allowing them to field their best general-election candidate — a politician so well-known voters simply refer to him as “Tommy.” But Rep. Tammy Baldwin (D), who is openly gay, is working hard on the campaign trail to dislodge Thompson’s mystique. The GOP remains optimistic, but they’ll have to work for it.
David M. Drucker is the associate politics editor for Roll Call.