Trouble in the Giants secondary, where Prince Amukamara is making his first NFL start, Corey Webster is playing with a broken hand and Antrel Rolle has a knee issue. The Big Blue D-backs had trouble vs. the Cowboys and Bucs, and the Eagles’ trio of DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin and Brent Celek is the best they will have faced.
The Eagles have yet to play close to their “A” game, squeaking by the Browns, then the Ravens (with the aid of the faux refs) before getting clobbered by the Cardinals.
The pick: Eagles -2.
49ers (-4) over JETS: One of the benefits of the Jets starting out 2-1 with two division wins is they lose the next two against the tough 49ers and Texans without having it destroy their season. Not that the Jets are conceding either game, but to win this one against the talented and balanced 49ers as Rex Ryan tries to figure out his new Life Without Revis defense on the fly, is a lot to ask.
Patriots (-4) over BILLS: Bills scored 65 points in two games vs. Patriots last season. Their offense works against Bill Belichick’s D, so this will be a game, but you just can’t go against Tom Brady with this modest spread when he’s coming in with a two-game losing streak.
Vikings (+4 1/2) over LIONS: Jared Allen, Calvin Johnson and Matthew Stafford all have injury issues, so this game possibly will be a lot less fun to watch. But as a bet, a lean to the Vikings because the Lions are giving up more than 31 points a game, and may not have the firepower to get to that number, plus THE number.
Panthers (+7) over FALCONS: This spread is suspiciously low, and the guys who say “they’re beggin’ ya to take the Falcons” would seem to have a point here. Another issue is the teams have similar yardage stats (Panthers -20 yards per game, Falcons +9), but in turnovers its Panthers -6 and Falcons +10. Good turnover luck is not guaranteed to continue from week to week.
CHIEFS (-1) over Chargers: The Chiefs are racking up 96 yards per game more than they yield but have been killed by turnovers at -8. As mentioned above, bad turnover luck is not guaranteed to continue from week to week either, and if the Chiefs can cut down on theirs, they can be a dangerous team.
Titans (+12) over TEXANS: Titans, who have two blowout losses, a wacky 44-41 win and an NFL-high 113 points allowed, certainly are capable of getting blown out of Reliant Stadium. But the thought here is Gary Kubiak is going to be very careful with Matt Schaub after last week’s ear-slicing headshot and the win margin will suffer.
RAMS (+2 1/2) over Seahawks: Think the Seahawks might have a bit of a tough time putting Monday night’s gift win behind them? The Rams didn’t get it done in Chicago, but the first step in their resurgence under Jeff Fisher is they will become an extremely tough out at home.
CARDINALS (-5 1/2) over Dolphins: Cards are living the good life at 3-0 and are known more as a close-game team, but their combination of killer pass rush and wily secondary bode ill for a rookie quarterback Ryan Tannehill, who may be without Reggie Bush.
Raiders (+6 1/2) over BRONCOS: The Raiders seem to have cut down on the dumb penalties and upped their professionalism under new coach Dennis Allen so far. This is a great rivalry game for which the spread looks to be several points high.
JAGUARS (+2 1/2) over Bengals: He’s no Andy Dalton, but Blaine Gabbert has hit some big passes late in games. Gabbert has been a weak link for the Jaguars but is gaining confidence, and faces a Bengals team with four defensive backs listed as questionable or doubtful.
PACKERS (-7 1/2) over Saints: The Packers have to take out Monday night’s atrocity on somebody, and Drew Brees and the boys may be coming to the realization that nothing good is going to happen this season.
Redskins (+2 1/2) over BUCCANEERS: Robert Griffin III is passing at 67.4 percent and leading the NFL in rushing yards among quarterbacks. This is one week where the league’s newest star will be enough to make up for the Redskins’ atrocious defense.
MONDAY NIGHT
Bears (+3 1/2) over COWBOYS: Battle of two stout defenses. A little scary backing Jay Cutler, who already has thrown six picks, but can see “the hook” in the spread coming into play. Overtime field goal, anyone?
BEST BETS: Rams, Eagles, Jaguars.
LOCK OF THE WEEK: Rams (Locks 0-3 in 2012)
LAST NIGHT: Browns (W)
LAST WEEK: 5-11 overall, 1-2 Best Bets.