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We have been down this road before. A couple of times, really. The first time, in December 1942, with war raging for a year already, the New York newspapers were afforded a break in the bleak news with a surprise announcement: Joe Gordon, pepperpot second baseman for the Yankees, had won the American League’s MVP award.
“I can’t hardly believe it!” the man nicknamed Flash gushed when reporters reached him at his offseason home in Oregon.
Well, neither could a certain San Diegan named Williams. All Teddy Ballgame had done that summer of ’42 was win the Triple Crown. These were his numbers, at a time when these were the only numbers that mattered to anyone, MVP voters included: .356 average (50 points lower than he hit a year earlier, but still …), 36 home runs, 137 RBIs. Gordon? .322, 18 and 103.
In 1942, OPS+ hadn’t been invented yet, and neither had WAR, but just to be sure about things, Williams clobbered Gordon in those categories, too: Williams’ OPS+ (which takes into account his on-base-plus-slugging percentage relative to the rest of the league) was 216 (to Gordon’s 154) and his WAR (which measures a player’s win value over an average replacement player) was 10.2 (over Gordon’s 7.8).
By any measure, this was theft of the highest order, unless you count this old-school stat: WPDTVLM — Which Player Did The Voters Like More. That would explain 1942. It would also explain 1947, when Williams won a second Triple Crown, when his numbers both old school and new (.343/32 HR/114 RBI; 205 OPS+, 9.6 WAR) dwarfed Joe DiMaggio’s (.315/20 HR/97 RBI; 154 OPS+, 4.5 WAR).
Which brings us to the curious case of the 2012 AL MVP race, which a few weeks ago seemed ready to be declared and delivered to Mike Trout, the sport’s singular sensation, certain to be a unanimous Rookie of the Year winner. He wasn’t even in the big leagues in April, but once he arrived he was a sensation, propelling the Angels into contention, posting an almost otherworldly WAR of 10.7.
Detroit’s Miguel Cabrera? All he did was win the Triple Crown this year, first one to do that since Carl Yastrzemski in 1967. When Yaz did it — a year after Frank Robinson did for Baltimore — the game still was uncluttered by advanced metrics — which taken in proper doses help explicate the game but can also drown it in integers — and the Triple Crown essentially was an automatic avenue.
In fact, if you eliminate Williams’ snubs, every player who has won a Triple Crown since the rules were changed to allow players multiple MVPs has won one — Ducky Medwick in 1937 being the other. It’s a rare feat, putting you in rarefied company. But doesn’t jibe with modern definition of “valuable.”
Which is a pity. You certainly can make a wonderful case for Trout. He has been a spectacular beacon in this season, managing to steal much of Bryce Harper’s thunder. He also posted superb traditional numbers — 30 homers, 49 steals, 129 runs, 80 RBIs (out of the leadoff spot), a .326 average, a .399 on-base percentage. No apologies needed for that.
And yet, bottom line, when some assess Trout’s candidacy, it weighs heavily the key word in the award — value — represented both by his gaudy WAR and the Angels’ ascent once he arrived.
But here is another question:
Where, exactly, do you suppose the Tigers would be if not for Cabrera and his numbers, his leadership, his newfound maturity? This is a player who harbored a less-than-stellar reputation for sins committed both on and off the field, yet willingly switched positions when the Tigers signed Prince Fielder and stayed in his manager’s office when the Tigers clinched the AL Central the other night so his teammates could celebrate with champagne while he (whose had public issues with alcohol) could abstain.
And, oh yes: He is a brilliant hitter.
“I always knew he had the talent to do anything, and he was one of the smarter players I’ve ever been around,” said Joe Girardi, who managed Cabrera with the Marlins in 2006. “You’d watch his at-bats, he knew exactly what he wanted to do. He’s a great hitter.”
It’s a good way to be identified. Here’s another: MVP.
michael.vaccaro@nypost.com