Today
SAINTS (-3 1/2) over Chargers: Especially with suspended Saints coach Sean Peyton a likely attendee, this leap of faith for 0-4 remnants of Bountygate seems worth taking. For Bolt-lovers, market price seems short rations, if Saints perform to full offensive potential.
Browns (+9) over GIANTS:
Big Blue fans now conditioned to fear the worst when laying significant points to non-conference relative strangers in their new home. Given that many long-time loyalists have been priced out, vocal passion of fan base has sagged … just another reason home field isn’t typically as decisive a factor in today’s NFL. Browns defense gets up for road challenges vs. their betters (see: Ravens).
REDSKINS (+3) over Falcons: In this clash of true-faith camps … the “Greatest Falcon team ever” believers against the “You can’t give RG3 points” contingent, leaning home dog. Falcons are 2-4 straight-up against NFC East under Mike Smith. We continue to harbor doubts about Atlanta’s alleged manifest destiny.
STEELERS (-3 1/2) over Eagles: Pittsburgh got victimized by Black Hole emotion wave two weeks ago, and now emerge off their bye to catch Eagles off narrow escape vs. Giants. Philly’s notched their trio of wins by four points, total, and with Troy Polamalu expected back in action at Heinz Field — with the strong possibility James Harrison may join him — reluctant to back very fortunate Birds. Will Rashard Mendenhall return?
COLTS (+7) over Packers: In once-beloved matchup, tarnished by the NFL/AFL merger, home dog hardly a shoe-in, but shredding by Drew Brees did nothing for Packers defensive confidence. Is Green Bay coach Mike McCarthy looking to build toward late-season explosion, rather than risking premature peaking — or is offensive cohesion truly lacking? Indy players most fond of idled coach Chuck Pagano, and will go all-out in tribute. Return of Dwight Freeney would be huge help.
Dolphins (+3 1/2) over BENGALS: Though margin of error has been trimmed by clever marauders pillaging the marketplace, endorse underrated ’Fins defense against Cincy side puffed up by kind late-September scheduling — and still hindered by nicked-up defensive backfield, even if some of those previously MIA return to action.
CHIEFS (+6) over Ravens: Chiefs offensive line problems chronic, and what fans are seeing could be ugly final chapter involving this set of key-management choices. But hate to embrace Ravens as pronounced road chalk, given their habit of playing down to host’s level when visiting. Perhaps Jamaal Charles can establish measure of tempo if Matt (USC) Cassel stops giving the ball away.
Seahawks (+3) over PANTHERS: We envision stout Seahawks rushing defense enjoying satisfying afternoon against Cam Newton and DeAngelo Williams. Hanging in against overconfident Falcons in the Georgia Dome doesn’t automatically translate into dominating Seattle at home. Visitors’ ground game should sparkle against the Panthers.
JAGUARS (+4 1/2) over Bears: Bears enjoyed optimum matchup against the Cowboys, and took full advantage of that sorry, graceless bunch. Chicago’s experienced, savvy and good — but are they that good? Jay Cutler doesn’t suffer fools gladly, which may provoke internal discord down the road. Look to fade line move … and wins over Cowboys frequently induce hangovers.
Titans (+5 1/2) over VIKINGS: Vikings bouncing back nicely after 2011 washout, but would rather take points with Christian Ponder and Adrian Peterson than lay them. At his best, Tenny RB Chris Johnson can keep Vikings skill people off the field — and expect Matt Hasselbeck will keep it conservative for Titans coachMike Munchak.
Broncos (+6 1/2) over PATRIOTS: Pats brought abrupt end to Tim Tebow fantasy run in last season’s playoffs. Facing Peyton Manning — even the prevailing, diminished version — remains an infinitely tougher assignment. Manning should engineer his share of points — would you expect any less than 24? Bill Belichick continues to pull rabbits (see: RB Brandon Bolden) out Pats’ hat, but Hoodie can no longer bully his way through the AFC.
Bills (+9 1/2) over 49ERS: Positioning ourselves against potential Coach of the Century Jim Harbaugh with trepidation, but respect that Frisco skunking of J-E-T-S was Koufax-esque, and Giants revenge dish awaits. Niners could roll — but will they? High spread may expand further.
TOMORROW
JETS (+8) over Texans: We will cop the “they’re all professionals, aren’t they?” attitude. If Gang Green have shred of self respect left, they will show up. Don’t expect another shutout. And will note that if Houston beats the Jets, it will be for the first time.
LAST WEEK: 10-3-1.
SEASON: 28-28-3.
Follow Richard Witt on Twitter: @Rich_Witt1.