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Obama is in ‘real trouble’ as Romney edges further ahead in polls

POLL POSITIONS: President Obama, in Virginia, yesterday, is no longer the front-runner, thanks to the strong debate performance by Mitt Romney,.

POLL POSITIONS: President Obama, in Virginia, yesterday, is no longer the front-runner, thanks to the strong debate performance by Mitt Romney,. (Reuters)

Mitt Romney, propelled by a wave of support generated by his star turn in the first presidential debate, is heading into Round Two tomorrow with a two-point lead over President Obama.

Both the Gallup and Rasmussen daily tracking polls yesterday had Romney leading among likely voters 49 percent to 47 percent.

Pollster Scott Rasmussen said that after Obama’s anemic performance in the first debate, “a very close race shifted ever so slightly from narrowly favoring President Obama to narrowly favoring Mitt Romney.”

But the contest still “remains too close to call,” he said.

But Obama did get some good news: He’s still ahead in the Electoral College.

Data compiled by the Web site Real Clear Politics shows Obama would have 201 electoral votes — excluding toss-up states — were he to keep his lead in states that now have him polling ahead. Romney would have 191.

It takes 270 electoral votes to win the presidency.

Meanwhile, Obama is doing worse now than at this point in 2008, when he had an 8-point average lead over GOP Sen. John McCain in the popular vote. He won by 7 points on Election Day.

Going into the Oct. 3 debate in Denver, Obama was leading the polls in 12 swing states.

Since then, Romney has taken slight leads in Florida and North Carolina and is tied with Obama in Virginia and Colorado, an analysis by Real Clear Politics shows.

Romney’s pulling slightly ahead of Obama in Florida poses “real trouble” for the president, said Al Cardenas, former chairman of the Florida Republican Party.

Obama’s support among voters between 18 and 29 is down 25 percent. He’s also doing poorly among seniors, a key Florida demographic, Cardenas said. Obama won Florida in 2008.

“If he’s behind in Florida, according to history, he’s not going to win the election,” Cardenas predicted yesterday on CNN’s “State of the Union.”

The Rasmussen poll also shows the president’s job-approval ratings slipping, with more voters disapproving than approving in the latest survey.

One place where polls haven’t tightened since Obama’s Denver drubbing is Ohio, where the president still leads Romney, 51-46, according to Public Policy Polling numbers from the weekend.

Obama — who urged supporters at his rallies to “vote early” — has an overwhelming 76-24 lead among the 19 percent of Ohioans who say they’ve already cast ballots. Romney leads 51-45 among those who haven’t voted yet.

Early voting could also help the president, as it did in 2008 when he won Colorado, Florida, Iowa and North Carolina with the help of early ballots.

Reuters/Ipsos polling data compiled in recent weeks show Obama with a strong lead nationwide — 59 percent to 31 percent — among early voters.

The importance of Ohio is not lost on Romney, who spent four days last week campaigning there, said Ohio Sen. Rob Portman, who is playing the president in Romney’s mock-debate prep.

“Look, [Romney] can probably win the presidency without Ohio, but I wouldn’t want to take the risk. No Republican has,” Portman said to journalist Jake Tapper on ABC’s “This Week” yesterday.