Today
SEAHAWKS (+3 1/2) over Patriots: At worst, this looms as match of the Patriots receivers against Seahawks secondary. Don’t sell those defenders short. CenturyLink Field is a hellish place to play when the 12th Man’s roaring, no matter how abbreviated Tom Brady’s audibles. Pats might win on established class, but there’s massive chance established class won’t serve to cover minus-3 1/2.
Giants (+6 1/2) over 49ERS: Tricky, since Big Blue’s facing pronounced revenge motivation in wake of last season’s NFC Championship. But it’s a real challenge to outperform a 79-3 composite score hung over the past two weeks, and Frisco lost to the only winning team they’ve faced — the Vikings. The Giants have habit of getting up for reputation foes when traveling, and Eli Manning remains tough out.
JETS (-3 1/2) over Colts: Both sides are coming off substantial emotional efforts. Indy has more room to recede after stealing win from Green Bay for sidelined coach Chuck Pagano. Gang Green take advantage with multiple injury returnees.
Bengals (-1 1/2) over BROWNS: October’s often when NFL’s winless (i.e. Cleveland) overachieve, but it’s no disgrace to lose to either the Ravens or Dolphins, and Cincy hasn’t gone down to anyone else. Though home side has quick-revenge motivation after Week 2, and RB Trent Richardson offers Cleveland hope, Bengals QB Andy Dalton boasts more weapons, and knows how to beat these guys.
Chiefs (+4) over Buccaneers: Given Matt Cassel’s concussed status, appears ex-Notre Damer Brady Quinn will get QB call from Chiefs coach Romeo Crennel. Even given Quinn’s limited arm strength, so long as he stays out of the way, hands off smoothly to Jamaal Charles and completes meaningful dink passes, Chiefs can cover if they get in gear early.
FALCONS (-9) over Raiders: Bye, bye! Falcons have covered their last seven October tilts when looking directly forward to their week off. Current Raiders secondary doesn’t hold a candle to their old-time marauders, and QB Matt Ryan performs at his best over glib Georgia Dome track.
Cowboys (+3 1/2) over RAVENS: Though Joe Flacco-led hurry-up offense is an enticing weapon, Ravens defense is feeling its age, and do they miss Terrell Suggs, or what? Cowboys nowhere near great, but they can ignite midseason surge with a top try here and in their subsequent visit to Carolina. Matchups here are infinitely more favorable than they were when Cowboys got drubbed by the Bears. Jay Ratliff’s back.
EAGLES (-4) over Lions: Wiseguys we respect are falling over themselves to back the 1-3 Lions, but they’re not really an ideal must-win vehicle, since they’re composed of underperforming bad actors who have trouble sustaining drives. Birds are no great bargain, given their offense, but home side rates slight edge at pared price. Texans were derided by many when drafting J.J. Watt ahead of Nick Fairley. Who’s laughing now? When ability’s in same ballpark, character matters.
Rams (+3 1/2) over DOLPHINS: Unfavorable schedule scenarios exist on both sides, now — and there’s a broad paucity of talented receivers on the field! Ugly business, but it’s tough to resist close-game master Jeff Fisher getting points. Trust Steven Jackson to make things happen … not to mention 13-for-13 field-goal demon Greg Zuerlein.
Bills (+5) over CARDINALS: Admire Cards’ defense, but their offensive line becomes more porous by the week, and injuries to RBs Beanie Wells and Ryan Williams leave hosts with pass-drunk offense. As bad as Bills’ air defense can be, they’ll know what’s coming from QB Kevin Kolb.
Vikings (+1
1/2) over REDSKINS: Much depends on Robert Griffin III’s degree of recovery from the concussion incurred in last week’s collision with Falcons LB Sean Weatherspoon. Kirk Cousins at QB? Given that possibility, lean slightly to Vikes, since when healthy, Adrian Peterson legitimizes this visitor over real grass … though Minny’s scary-bad statistical trends applicable to this contest temper our enthusiasm.
Packers (+3 1/2) over TEXANS: Bothered by previous Packers offensive coordinator Joe Philbin’s shift to Dolphins head-coaching job. Good for Joe — but he clearly is missed, as is RB Cedric Benson. Packers sweating near-term availability of receiver Greg Jennings — and TE Jermichael Finley’s gone public with chemistry travails vis-à-vis QB Aaron Rodgers. But even given their improvement, Texans have had issues with super-accurate passers.
TOMORROW
CHARGERS (-1) over Broncos: The Manning brothers remain masters at rallying from early deficits, but present reality offers little value with Peyton when in near-pick situation on the road against legitimate AFC West favorite. Bolts should have no problem seizing tempo advantage, given Broncos’ marshmallow-soft defensive interior, offensive-line injuries and size issues.
LAST WEEK: 6-7. SEASON: 34-35-3.
Follow Richard Witt on Twitter: @Rich_Witt1.