Sports

Turf appeals to European horses in Breeders’ Cup

MILE TO GO: Excelebration, here winning the 2011 Prix Moulin Longchamp in Qatar, is expected to be in the thick of contention for the Breeders’ Cup Mile. (Racing Post)

ARCADIA, Calif. — The last two times the Breeders’ Cup was run at Santa Anita, when the main track had a synthetic surface, European horses ran 1-2 in the Classic in 2008 and third in 2009. If the track were still synthetic — it was switched back to dirt for 2010 — then undefeated English superstar Frankel would likely have made the Classic his final start, according to Alastair Donald, managing director of the International Racing Bureau.

But this year, no Europeans will run in the Classic, nor in most of the other Breeders’ Cup dirt races.

“We’ve learned our lesson,” said Donald, who does fancy the chances of several Euro-invaders running in the Breeders’ Cup races on turf this Friday and Saturday. As in past years, he provided The Post with his expert analysis.

Countdown to the Cup

TURF: Donald thinks last year’s winner, St Nicholas Abbey, “has every chance to defend his title. Throw out his race in the Arc de Triomphe. The soft ground wasn’t to his liking. Otherwise, there is nothing to suggest he’s not as good as last year.”

Shareta also didn’t handle the soft ground in the Arc. “If she runs back to her race in the Group 1 Prix Vermeille (a two-length victory), she has every chance, but might not be good enough,” Donald said., adding, “You’ve got to give Trailblazer, the Japanese horse, a chance off his form in last year’s Japan Cup. He prepped for this (on turf at Santa Anita) going a mile, which is inadequate for him.”

MILE: “If you look at Excelebration’s record and take out Frankel, who beat him a total of 20 lengths the last three times they met, he would have won eight in a row,” Donald said. “He should be very competitive with Wise Dan.”

The same goes for Moonlight Cloud, who, like the great Goldikova, the Mile winner in 2008-10, is a French filly trained by Freddie Head.

“She’s no Goldikova,” said Donald, “but she almost upset Black Caviar (the Australian filly who’s unbeaten in 22 starts) in the Diamond Jubilee at Ascot. She had trouble in the Jacques Marois, and otherwise would have been right there with Excelebration. She wants a fast pace and figures to get one.”

JUVENILE TURF: “This is a very tough race,” Donald said. “The Europeans (there are five of them) appear very closely matched.

“They are very keen on Dundonnell’s chances. He has a strong stretch kick, and the distance is not an issue. He could go off the favorite. Give him a solid chance.

“I like the way Artigiano is coming into the race. He looked good on the track [yesterday] morning. He was a close second in the Royal Lodge to Steeler, who is a good yardstick.

“Fantastic Moon was favored in the Royal Lodge, but he was stopped during the running and had to come on again. The only question is, he might not have traveled well [to California].

“George Vancouver’s run in the Dewhurst was a solid effort. He finished third to Dawn Approach, the best 2-year-old in Europe, and the (firm) ground is not a problem.

“Lines of Battle is (trainer) Aidan O’Brien’s second string. He is not as highly (regarded) as the others.”

FILLY & MARE TURF: Donald said France’s Ridasiyna “was very impressive in her last start [the Prix de l’Opera] over bad ground she didn’t like, and she still destroyed them [by 3 1/2 lengths]. She wants it firm and has every chance.”

The Fugue, owned by Sir Andrew Lloyd-Webber, is “ultra-consistent,” said Donald. “[Trainer John] Gosden has been planning this race for a while. She’s had a busy season, but she has class.

“Up is a tough filly. She ran an OK race in the Beverly D (at Arlington Park), then came back eight days off the plane and won a Group 3 in Ireland. Her last race was just a prep. She will like the trip and the ground, and she will be a price.”

JUVENILE FILLIES TURF: “Flotilla is a nice filly, but I have reservations,” Donald said. “She had a hard race over bad ground, and I hope that doesn’t leave a mark.

“Sky Lantern looked good on the track, and her Moyglare Stakes form [a 2 1/2-length win] is good. On ability, she has every right to win it, but her trainer, Richard Hannon, has no record in the Breeders’ Cup.”

TURF SPRINT: “Starspangledbanner was Europe’s champion sprinter in 2010,” Donald said, “but then he went to stud, had fertility problems, returned to racing and hasn’t recaptured his past form. He is up against it.’’

Donald doesn’t have high hopes for the three Euros entered to race on dirt: Fame and Glory and Sense of Purpose in the Marathon, and Ceiling Kitty in the Juvenile Sprint.