Hall of Fame jockey Jerry Bailey has been providing The Post an inside look at the Breeders’ Cup races. Here’s his analysis of Saturday’s races:
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf 2012
The Europeans have won this event three of the five years it has been run and both times it was contested at Santa Anita. Not unlike previous years, Europe is not sending their best but may take it nonetheless.
1.Artigiano: This Goldolphin runner has won just one race, but has a runner-up in a couple of important and difficult races in Europe. Most recently, he was second in the Royal Lodge stakes (won previously by Frankel in 2010 and 2011 by Wrote, last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf winner). The Europeans have won this race three of the past five times, including both run over the the Santa Anita turf course. This horse has never been around left handed turns but does appear to have plenty of tactical speed to get a good position early.
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.Noble Tune: Two wins in as many starts. His most recent was an impressive and explosive move at the quarter pole in the Pilgrim stakes at Belmont, where he made up tons of ground over a yielding course on a slow early pace to win with ease.
3. Gervinho: Another undefeated colt. He’s 2 for 2 with a win in the Zuma Beach stakes over this course on Oct 8 for trainer Carla Gaines (who won the 2009 Sprint with Dancing in Silks), and comes with a devastating final furlong to win his races. Like the fact that he’s home and has won over this turf course.
Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint 2012
Unlike some of the other turf races in the Breeders’ Cup, this race has been dominated by U.S. horses — which have won all four runnings of this event, including the two years it was run in California, it was won by local horses with races over this unique downhill course.
1.Unbridled’s Note: Hard for me to pick a 3-year-old against the old veterans in this kind of race but to me there is no standout. Though he is not a “local horse,” trainer Steve Asmussen brought him here early to give him a race over the course, and won it easily. Asmussen gave him a couple of months off after a brief Derby campaign, then shortened him up to sprints. He has three good efforts (a third in the Amsterdam and Kings Bishop followed by his win in the Eddie D at Santa Anita). He will sit a perfect stalking trip just three or so lengths off the pace and finish strongly.
2. Corporate Jungle: Now that he doesn’t have to deal with Wise Dan he may be as good as any in here. He’s turning back in distance from mile races — which I like — and his post is an advantage. In a race that depends on so much luck, he just needs a place for Castellano to let him run.
3.Bridgetown: Looks like it could be a battle between trainers Todd Pletcher and Asmussen in this one. This horse finished second, just getting nipped at the wire in 09 on the Santa Anita turf course in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf at one mile. Since then, he has been a 5 or 5 ½-furlong sprint specialist, winning almost a million bucks.
Breeders’ Cup Sprint 2012
The sprint is usually one of the most exciting races of the weekend and this year promises to be just that. There will be plenty of speed from Sum of the Parts, Trinniberg and The Lumber Guy and closers, Jimmy Creed, Coil and Amazombie will be charging hard through the stretch.
1. Coil: Wasn’t ready in time for the Derby last year but did win the Affirmed Handicap and the Haskell, and even tried older horses, finishing a solid third to Game On Dude. He had a nine-month vacation and this year trainer Bob Baffert has concentrated on sprints. He isn’t as fast from the gate as many of these sprinters, but can get it together and come with a good late run to win at six furlongs as he did most recently winning the Santa Anita Sprint Championship. But like any other come from behind sprinter, he will need racing luck in traffic.
2.The Lumber Guy: He is just slightly the fastest horse in this race on paper, and I think most importantly he is 2 for 2 at six furlongs. Trainer Mike Hushion tried stretching his speed in longer distances and was able to win at a mile, but he is really a sprinter at heart.
3. Amazombie: Last year’s champ is still a force to be reckoned with however I’m concerned about his most recent defeat in the Santa Anita Sprint Championship, a race he won last year heading toward his win in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint. He had no apparent excuses, and loomed up at the top of the stretch as if he were a winner but had no closing punch.
Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint
This is one race in which the favorite is a cut above the rest. Other than Wise Dan, Groupie Doll may be the most dominate on the card.
1.Groupie Doll: She may be one of the most legitimate favorites in this year’s Breeders’ Cup. She started the year with three straight loses (a second and two thirds) but since adding blinkers in the Grade 1 Madison stakes at Keeneland in April, she has been unbeatable, and she’s carried a lot of weight in each of those wins. She has the ability to stalk the pace, and also assume the lead by the midway point. Nevertheless, her best race is coming from five or six lengths off the lead.
2. Dust and Diamonds: She appears to be the speed of the race and though she can certainly sit just behind fast fractions as she did in winning the Gallant Bloom in her last race, post 3 tells me she will go right to the front. If the competition allows her to go too easy on the lead, she certainly can wire the field.
3. Musical Romance: The Defending champ of this event was beaten fair and square by the two fillies ranked above her, but she did go back to Calder and win a listed stake, so she is coming into this on a positive note, and has shown the ability to take her “A” game on the road.
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile
Historically there have been clots in this race that you really could get excited about looking toward the Triple Crown races of the next year, but I really don’t feel that way about this group. Last year, I thought Union Rags had everything it would take to win the Derby and maybe more, before that it was Uncle Mo and he didn’t even make the Derby, but he did give you that feeling all throughout his 2-year-old season.
1. Power Broker: Trainer Bob Baffert went to the turf early on this guy, and he remained winless in his first three starts, so he put this Pulpit colt on the dirt in the Frontrunner Stakes and he really improved, winning by six lenghts. He appears the best of the west, he has gone two turns, and he has a race over the track. If he can duplicate the last effort, he beats Pletcher’s horse and wins. He has all the tactical speed he needs but likely will just sit of the pace as he did in his stake win, and with the outside post. The race sets up perfect for him.
2.Shanghai Bobby: Unbeaten in 3 starts, he wasn’t really impressive until he won the Champagne, and he did rate off the pace well enough in that race to give you the impression he can get a little further. The rub is that he was not regarded as one of Todd Pletcher’s best colts and only about 3 or 4 on the depth chart a couple of months ago, but is now obviously the most accomplished in his barn. With post 4, his jockey Rosie Napravnik likely will use some of his speed to stalk Title Contender, the likely pacesetter.
3. Capo Bastone: He isn’t as fast as the top two but has room to improve, and his style is perfect if the pace gets hot up front.
Breeders’ Cup Mile
As we move into the post Goldikova era, we still have part of the team, as her trainer Freddie Head brings in another filly, Moonlight Cloud to take on the brilliant American miler Wise Dan as well as the second-best European miler, Excelebration. The only horse missing from making this the race of the year is Frankel.
1.Wise Dan: I think he is not only the best miler, but the best horse in training and would have given the mighty Frankel a run for his money. If Excelebration runs, we may have a better gauge of the comparison. Wise Dan like most great milers is blessed with tactical speed and a tremendous turn of foot enabling his jockey to seize almost any opportunity at any time within the race. He has won six of his last seven, with the only defeat coming in the Grade 1 Stephen Foster on the dirt finishing second beaten only a head. I think so much of this horse that I would have picked him to win the Classic had his connections gone that route.
2.Excelebration: If it were not for Frankel , this horse would have been the greatest miler Europe has seen in many years, second maybe to the legendary Goldikova. Instead, he merely has four wins in seven races over the last two years and those losses came to Frankel. His latest triumph was Oct 20 on Champions day at Ascot in the QE2 mile, where he decimated the likes of City Scape and Elusive Kate.
3.Moonlight Cloud: Freddie Head, trainer of three-time mile winner Goldikova, brings another filly this year who does not sport the resume of his previous champion but has plenty of talent as she recently displayed winning the Grade 1 Prix de Moulin at Longchamp on Arc day in a small four- horse field. She has tactical speed and can get a very good position early.
Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile
The mile distance is my favorite in horse racing. It takes a special horse that can carry quality speed beyond the sprint distances of six or seven furlongs, and I feel great milers make the best stallions. We don’t have the return of last year’s mile winner Caleb’s Posse, but we do have the runner up Shackleford vying for favoritism with Emcee and last year’s seventh place finisher, Jersey Town.
1.Shackleford: Though he was just beaten by Jersey Town, I am still picking him on top. He was the runner up in this race last year and other than Wise Dan, I think he’s the best miler in the country and it’s fairly well known he doesn’t like an off track that he ran over in his last two races. There is a chance that he is tailing off form this year, but he is an iron horse and I just can’t write him off.
2.Emcee: Trainer Kiaran McGlaughlin was debating this race or the sprint but landed here, and I think he’s in a good spot. His best distance is seven furlongs and his record bears that out. He is 3-for-4 at the distance, his only defeat was in the Carter when he lost his footing. But he has never run in a two-turn race. Having said that, his breeding indicates he should have no issue with a mile and post 7 gives him the chance to sit just off the lead.
3.Jersey Town: He finished seventh in this race last year, and though his trainer Barclay Tagg is winless in six Breeders’ Cup tries, he is bringing this horse into this race in great form. He comes off a convincing win in the Kelso Handicap at Belmont on Sept 29 stalking the pace and running down Shackleford in deep stretch. He has soundness issues throughout his career necessitating lengthy periods of rest however he is in the best form of his life at age 6.
Breeders’ Cup Turf
In a race many would suggest has been dominated by the Europeans, the numbers reveal that isn’t really the case. In the 28 runnings, the Europeans hold a 15-14 edge (one extra win because of the dead heat in 2003) and when run at Santa Anita, the score is 3-3, though Europe has won 6 of the last 7 races. This year the matchup may be historic because St. Nichols Abbey coming back for a repeat try of last year’s winning effort against the equally talented American horse, Point Of Entry trained by Shug McGaughey. It’s not a two-horse race by any means, there are also the Europeans Treasure Beach and the filly Shareta to consider.
1.St. Nicholas Abbey: He comes off a poor effort in the Arc De Triomphe, but he didn’t like that soft ground. His only victory of this season came in the Group 1 Coronation Cup and other than that, he has been just behind the top horses in Europe. But remember that he wasn’t the best in Europe last year either and was plenty good enough to come win our top prize. He typically drops far back and comes with a big run late. Nevertheless, last year at Churchill Downs in the Breeders’ Cup Turf, he was very tactical and was always within striking distance.
2.Point of Entry: He was beaten in his first outing of the year at Gulfstream Park and since then he is flawless, winning five in a row including 3 Grade 1’s in his last few starts. He has tactical speed and good acceleration for a long distance turf horse, which make the jockeys job much easier to get through holes when they appear. He even won the Turf Classic at Belmont on Sept 29 over a soggy course which he really does not like. He now gets to run over the firm course at Santa Anita which will give him an edge over the Europeans.
3.Shareta: This 4-year-old daughter of Arc de Triomphe winner Sinndar has been pretty tough against females in Europe this year winning two Grades 1’s, along with a second and a third. Like others in this race, she exits a poor performance in the Arc on Oct 7, but that was over very soft ground. Her style is to be close to the pace and explode in the final two furlongs as she did winning the Grade 1 Prix Vermille.
Breeders’ Cup Classic 2012
In this year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic, we don’t have battle of the sexes, and we don’t have the undefeated horse trying to preserve that perfect record, but we do have last year’s runner-up, Game On Dude, as well as two others attempting once again to take down America’s richest horse race.
1.Game On Dude: He’s 5 for 5 at Santa Anita. Though he has two wins at a 1¼ miles, he is a bit suspect at that distance. Remember, last year he was run down by Drosselmeyer in the closing yards of the Classic. He has a new jockey in Rafael Bejarano and in their only pairing , the veteran jockey seemed to be able to settle the “Dude” off the early lead for a longer period of time and retain a definite punch through the stretch, even drawing away at the finish instead of trying to outlast the closers. Other than the flop in the Dubai World Cup, he is 5-4-1-0 with three Grade 1 e wins. This race could set up really well for this Dude, because if both Mucho Macho Man and To Honor and Serve elect to throttle back and stalk this horse, he could set an easy pace and never look back.
2.Mucho Macho Man: He has an almost identical running style to Game On Dude, because he has a high cruising speed and tends to wear his competition down but maybe a length or two further back than the Dude. Nevertheless, he is a true 1¼-mile horse and this fact may make the difference in the end. This year his only disappointing performance was in the Alysheba stakes at Churchill Downs, and his only sub triple-digit Beyer Speed Figure this year, but he has since had a brilliant performance winning the Suburban at Belmont in July followed by a troubled second-place finish in the Woodward, where he was widely considered the best horse in that one. He has wins over five different surfaces and though he has never raced at Santa Anita, my feeling is he will handle it fine. Ron The Greek: A true 1¼-mile runner that closes like the wind. But like all closers, to win he will need a hot pace up front which is not a certainty. He will depend on To Honor and Serve setting a quick pace. His record this year is very consistent, but like almost all the others in here, he has one clunker (the Jockey Gold Cup) on his resume, and it happens to be his latest start which is a concern. He does however sport a win in the Santa Anita Handicap earlier this year at this same distance.