Linda McMahon (Getty Images)
When the dust settles on Election Night, Nevada Democrat Harry Reid could emerge as among the most durable majority leaders of the US Senate in a generation.
That’s because Democrats are poised to maintain control of the Senate on Tuesday, despite entering the 2012 election cycle in so much peril that Reid couldn’t find a Democratic senator willing to assume the helm of the party’s Senate campaign committee (he eventually convinced Sen. Patty Murray of Washington to take the job.) And Reid’s good fortune comes after narrowly surviving re-election in 2010 in the midst of cratering job approval ratings at home.
Republicans express optimism that they can make a serious dent in Reid’s 53 to 47 majority, if not win the chamber outright. But of the 33 seats that are up for election, the Capitol Hill newspaper Roll Call rates 10 as “safe” for the Democrats; three are “likely” to go Democratic and another five as “leaning” toward the Democrats. Only five seats are considered safe for the Republicans, with one considered likely for the GOP. Many of the remainder of the races will be hard-fought toss-ups.
Overall, conventional wisdom is that the Republicans will pick up maybe a couple seats, narrowing the Democratic lead to perhaps 51-49 but not flipping the chamber — though they Republicans will handily maintain their majority in the House.
“I think Democrats will hold their narrow majority in the Senate. But we can’t completely rule out the possibility that Republicans take control, particularly if they only need to get to 50 and Romney wins the White House,” said Nathan Gonzalez, deputy editor of the Rothenberg Political Report. “There is a chance that Democrats even pick up a seat. There are enough close races that multiple scenarios are possible.”
Here are the races to watch Tuesday:
* Massachusetts: Sen. Scott Brown (R) is hoping for a late surge in his bid to hold off liberal darling Elizabeth Warren (D), who found her campaign footing after early missteps and heads into Election Day as a slight favorite. That Brown is only trailing Warren, a Harvard professor, by 4.5 points in the RealClearPolitics average in a presidential vote that Obama is expected to win going away says something about his political strength in this blue state.
* Connecticut: Former WWE CEO Linda McMahon (R) has poured millions of her own money into this open seat race and made it surprisingly competitive. But since her summer spike in the polls, it looks like the national Democratic money that came in to buck up Rep. Christopher Murphy (D) might have pushed this contest back toward an outcome one might expect in a blue state in a presidential year. Murphy led by 4 points in the latest RealClearPolitics average.
* Ohio: Republicans and many analysts believe the GOP needs a big Romney victory, not just a squeaker, for the party to win the Senate majority. The Buckeye State race is a good example of a contest where Republicans see their nominee, Ohio Treasurer Josh Mandel, tied to Romney’s fate. Although some speculate that Ohio voters might split their ticket between Romney and Sen. Sherrod Brown (D), others contend there is no way Mandel loses if Romney wins. The current RealClearPolitics average shows Brown leading Mandel by 5.5 points, even as Romney trails by only 2.6 points in a presidential race that is basically tied.
* Wisconsin: This is one of the most brutal Senate races in the country. Former Gov. Tommy Thompson offers the GOP a great opportunity to flip a Democratic-held seat in a state that had historically trended Democrat until the 2010 midterm elections and is now in play at the presidential level for the first time in eight years. But Rep. Tammy Baldwin (D) has run a tough campaign and made this race surprisingly close. Baldwin, who leads by a half of 1 point in the RealClearPolitics average, would be the first openly gay member of the Senate.
David M. Drucker is the associate politics editor for Roll Call.