INDIAN WELLS, Calif. — In one year, Hiroki Kuroda has traveled from mystery to indispensable. From, “How will he survive the AL East?” to “How will the Yankees survive the AL East without him?”
The veteran right-hander rejected the Yankees’ $13.3 million tender bid yesterday, but it would be a bigger issue if he rejects the Yankees completely. If so, the Yankees’ already complicated offseason would grow exponentially more complicated.
Consider what the simple path would have looked like: Kuroda accepts the tender and Andy Pettitte also comes back on a one-year contract. That would allow the Yankees to have Nos. 2 and 3 starters behind CC Sabathia without spending a nickel of 2014 money, which is vital for an organization still vowing to stay under the $189 million luxury tax in ’14.
The Yankees would then have Phil Hughes, Ivan Nova, David Phelps and this year’s yet-to-be-signed version of Freddy Garcia to fill out the rotation with Michael Pineda potentially a June surprise.
The most vital, yet hardest area to construct well is the rotation and while this offseason was still in its infancy the Yankees would have been essentially done, allowing them to focus their energies and resources on their myriad other issues.
For example, Nick Swisher and Rafael Soriano also turned down the $13.3 million tender. But there are creative, low-cost ways to address right field and bullpen depth. For example, a lefty-righty platoon in right of, say, Raul Ibanez and Scott Hairston could deliver somewhat similar production to Swisher. Nevertheless, it is just about impossible to be creative with a No. 2 starter. You either have one or you don’t.
And, if Kuroda does not return, the Yankees’ ability to have one is made more problematic by the mandates about spending beyond 2013. Even if the Yankees liked starters such as Anibal Sanchez or Kyle Lohse, their current financial philosophy precludes them from buying either free agent.
“There are always alternatives and we’ll be forced to more seriously consider them [if Kuroda cannot be retained],” Yankees general manager Brian Cashman said.
Cashman has evolved to be kind of emotionless in these situations, to refuse to surrender the team’s current operating principle out of panic. He believes if Kuroda leaves, other opportunities to use dollars allocated for the righty will open. And they may. For example, perhaps someone such as Dan Haren will be willing to do a one-year deal to prove his back is healthy or a veteran with one year left on his pact, such as the White Sox’s Gavin Floyd, could be had.
But that will involve guesswork and/or prospects. There is little gamble with Kuroda. A year ago it was uncertain if he could make the transition from the NL West to the AL East. Nevertheless, after finishing eighth in the AL in ERA (3.32) Kuroda answered all questions. He also made himself more attractive to other suitors, potentially on the kind of multi-year contract I believe the Yankees would not give even to a player they like and need this much.
Without severe limitations on 2013 spending, the Yankees could give more than the $13.3 million on a one-year deal and/or add incentives that make a one-year contract more attractive. Why would Kuroda accept that?
Comfort is vital. Kuroda rejected more money last offseason, for example $13 million from Arizona, to sign a one-year, $10 million deal with the Yankees because he thought the more cosmopolitan atmosphere was right for him and his family. Kuroda also might want to go year-to-year because he wants to finish his career in Japan while he is still an effective pitcher. In fact, one NL executive who has tried to sign Kuroda previously predicted he will return to Japan for the 2013 season.
“This is a different guy,” the executive said. “He is not going to make a purely money decision. He will play where his heart tells him to play.”
The Dodgers also are interested in reuniting with Kuroda, who didn’t want to leave last year. But Los Angeles was in a financial mess and had to lowball Kuroda. Now the Dodgers are the freest-spending club in the majors and could offer a multi-year deal if that is what Kuroda desires.
Nevertheless, because the Yankees made the tender offer, the Dodgers would lose their first-round pick to sign Kuroda, who will turn 38 in February. Los Angeles general manager Ned Colletti told me that was an important issue to weigh because the Dodgers’ farm system needs rebuilding.
The Red Sox, because they had one of the majors’ 10-worst records, would lose a second-round pick if they signed Kuroda. There remain questions of whether or not Kuroda would broaden his considerations beyond New York, Los Angeles and Japan. One AL official said “definitely” when asked if Kuroda would go to the Red Sox, noting the cosmopolitan nature of the city.
Nevertheless, another AL official said, “not for $20 million a year. This is a player that values comfort and familiarity, and he is not familiar with the team and the Red Sox had chaos last year. No shot.”
Still, the Yankees are not sure shots. That went away yesterday with the tender off. What arrived was a more complicated offseason.