LOOK OUT, COLLIN! Heisman Trophy hopeful Collin Klein and Kansas State will suffer their first loss Saturday on the road against Baylor, Lenn Robbins says. (CSM/ Landov)
Anyone who puts down money on a gut call is asking for trouble.
So you should know up front we are not picking Baylor to upset Kansas State on Saturday out of some romantic notion that we still yearn for an Alabama-Oregon national championship game. Whichever two teams get to the BCS title game will have earned it.
The Wildcats have earned all of the accolades they have received this season, including their No. 1 BCS ranking. They play like the best-coached team in America. They are first in turnover margin at plus 2 per game, and they are tops in fewest penalties per game at 3.2.
If Kansas State has a flaw it’s this — it is not very good (78th in the nation) in pass defense, and Baylor is second in the nation in pass offense. Something’s has to give, and it will be Kansas State.
The Wildcats will find themselves in the kind of Big 12-scorefest they detest and they will lose. It will be a shame, really. Remember just two years ago the Big 12 was on life support and no conference in the country was eager to throw Kansas State a lifeline.
But life, as we know, can be unfair.
Maybe in Hollywood this story would have a happy ending for the Wildcats and Heisman Trophy hopeful Collin Klein. Not in Waco, where the Bears are 3-1 and Baylor football is no longer a punch line. We will take the Bears plus the 11 1/2 points.
Now, about Notre Dame next week at USC…
VIRGINIA (+3 1/2) over North Carolina: The Cavaliers snapped a six-game losing streak with a thrilling 41-40 win at Miami last week. Their faint bowl hopes remain alive, but they must win. Not sure if they can do that, but this is the seniors’ last home game and QB Michael Rocco has regained his groove.
AIR FORCE (-22 1/2 ) over Hawaii: Never bet against the Warriors on the island, or on them when they’re on the mainland.
Northwestern (+7) over MICHIGAN STATE: Watching Michigan State’s offense is like being stuck behind a sanitation truck.
Rutgers (+6 1/2) over CINCINNATI: A late-season change at quarterback has sparked the Bearcats, but the Scarlet Knights consistently have played the best defense in the Big East.
MIAMI (-7) over South Florida: The next great Miami running back has arrived and his name is Duke Johnson.
Usc (-3 1/2) over UCLA: If the Trojans win it, Pac-12 commish Larry Scott might kiss Lane Kiffin. Because then he will have an Oregon-USC league title game, not an Oregon rout of UCLA.
N.C. State (+17) over CLEMSON: Tigers get caught looking ahead to next week’s blood war against South Carolina.
NOTRE DAME (-23 1/2) over Wake Forest: Irish wake the echoes with an impressive win going into the USC game.
LSU (-18 1/2) over Mississippi: The best two-loss team in America.
Texas Tech (+10 1/2) over OKLAHOMA STATE: Neither team has a bad loss. Cowboys win, but we will take Seth Doege and the points.
WISCONSIN (-2 1/2) over Ohio State: It took a while, but the Badgers finally got the (Montee) Ball rolling.
Oklahoma (-11) over WEST VIRGINIA: Can’t recall ever seeing a more unbalanced team — terrific offense; horrendous defense. Sooners score early and often.
MISSOURI (-4 1/2) over Syracuse: Both teams need one more win to be bowl eligible. The Orange get another shot next week at Temple. Tigers have no shot next week at Texas A&M. Plus, it’s last home game for seniors.
OREGON (-20 1/2) over Stanford: It’s not that we don’t really like this Stanford defense. We do. But a team has got to score on just about every possession to keep pace with Oregon. We don’t have enough faith in Stanford’s offense.
Best Bets: Notre Dame, Wisconsin, Oregon
Last week: 10-5; Season: 87-77-1
Best Bets: 1-2; 15-18