NINTH HOLE: Rafael Soriano opted out of his Yankees pact and rejected their qualifying offer, but may find few teams willing to shell out for a free-agent closer. (
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Of the nine players who received and rejected the $13.3 million tender offers from their teams, the one viewed within the sport as taking the greatest financial risk was Rafael Soriano.
The World Series served as the latest exhibit on why teams are more and more hesitant to make substantial commitments to closers.
Sergio Romo began the 2012 season with three career saves and as a setup man to Brian Wilson. He ended it striking out Miguel Cabrera for his third save in the World Series. It marked the second straight year in which a reliever who did not begin the season as a team’s closer wound up in the job for the champion.
In 2011, that was the Cardinals’ Jason Motte. This year, of the final four teams in the NL playoffs, St. Louis (with Motte) was the only one led in saves by the reliever designated in spring to be the closer. San Francisco (Wilson to Romo), Washington (Drew Storen to Tyler Clippard) and Cincinnati (Ryan Madson to Aroldis Chapman) again proved closers, more than any other position, can be unearthed even with a season already in progress. So why spend big on that role?
Meanwhile, the World Series-losing Tigers had to depose their closer, Jose Valverde, during the playoffs, so awful was his performance a year after he went 49-for-49 in save opportunities. That merely reinforced the strong perception in the game about how fickle closers are.
Consider just two significant long-term deals were done for closers last offseason: Philadelphia’s four-year, $52 million accord with Jonathan Papelbon and Miami’s three-year, $27 million pact with Heath Bell. And the Bell pact went so bad, so quick, the Marlins paid a huge slice of his contract to make him go away in a trade to Arizona.
All of this has fueled an atmosphere in which more teams than ever do not want to invest big on closers. That is why there was at least some surprise when Soriano turned down $14.8 million (the $1.5 million buyout as part of his Yankees deal plus the $13.3 million qualifying offer) to test the market.
Yankees president Randy Levine said Soriano’s representative, Scott Boras, said he could find a four-year, $60 million package for his client. Boras disputed that he gave such a specific number. But in this forum, can Boras find even half that amount — say, $30 million over three years?
Last offseason, Boras had acrimonious negotiations with Philadelphia for a long-term deal on Madson that fell apart when the Phillies signed Papelbon. Madson ultimately had to sign a one-year, $8.5 million pact with Cincinnati and ended up needing Tommy John surgery. In the game of closer musical chairs, there are just not that many available seats for lucrative deals, and when one is pulled away, the chances of finding another is not strong.
Plus, Soriano poses another problem. While he is very good at his job, he has a reputation around the sport of being a hard player to manage, which will cross him off many teams’ wish lists.
The Yankees did not seem to mind Soriano. Still, they are privately pleased not to have to pay him $14 million next year. They will allocate those dollars elsewhere, perhaps even using a piece on another reliever to join David Robertson, Joba Chamberlain, David Aardsma and Boone Logan to provide a safety net underneath Mariano Rivera, who will be returning from ACL surgery at age 43 — assuming he will re-sign with the Yankees.
So where can Soriano go? The Dodgers signed Brandon League to a three-year, $22.5 million contract, which could mean they have their closer or could mean this version of the Dodgers has so much money they will keep spending even on someone like Soriano. The Tigers say they are going with prospect Bruce Rondon, but I believe a team with as much invested as they already have ultimately will import an insurance policy. And Detroit owner Mike Ilitch has a strong working relationship with Boras. The agent also has strong ties to the Nationals, who also could seek a closer.
The Angels? Their owner, Artie Moreno, does not like doing business with Boras. The Reds? They look more intent on smaller deals with Madson, Jonathan Broxton or Joakim Soria. The Red Sox? They appear to be targeting their dollars elsewhere.
The game of closer musical chairs has begun. Will Soriano find a lucrative place to sit?
Prime arm would Rays the stakes
There is a bit of a myth that Tampa Bay talks about trading starting pitching but never actually does. In recent years, the Rays have dealt Scott Kazmir, Edwin Jackson, Jason Hammel and Matt Garza.
Still, they are extremely protective of this resource, realizing pitching quality and depth is the key facet in making them contenders against AL East teams with considerably larger payrolls. Nevertheless, the feeling at the recently completed GM Meetings was the Rays were much more open to dealing a starter for badly needed offense, perhaps Arizona right fielder Justin Upton.
Excluding David Price, the Rays would talk James Shields, Jeremy Hellickson, Jeff Niemann and even — in the right deal — Matt Moore. Tampa Bay believes the growth of Alex Cobb and Chris Archer and the ability to move Wade Davis back from the bullpen to the rotation gives it the necessary protection to deal a proven starter.
Signs Bay’s not dried up
Jason Bay’s .165 average last season was the fifth worst since 1900 by an outfielder with at least 200 plate appearances. But teams looking for a reason to invest a few dollars in him may eye the top of that list.
Tyler Colvin’s .150 average in 2011 for the Cubs was the worst ever in this category. He bounced back to .290 with 18 homers and an .858 OPS this season, but he did that as a lefty hitter playing his home games in Colorado.
More informative may be the second name on the list: Andruw Jones. He hit .158 for the 2008 Dodgers, and though he never bounced back to his early-career star level, he became a very useful supplementary masher against lefty pitchers — albeit not as good this year for the Yankees.
Bay long had the ability to beat up lefty pitching, as well, producing a .918 OPS against southpaws as recently as 2011 for the Mets. Perhaps liberated from the mental onus of his horrid association with the Mets, Bay can reclaim at least that skill and become a worthwhile component for a club.