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The Jets have the Jaguars just where they want them — at EverBank Field. The Jags are 1-5 at home, with the losses by 20, 17, 38, 17 and 17 points. Not only that, the road is the best place for the Jets to be right now after the brutal loss to the Patriots and possibly more brutal win over the Cardinals at MetLife Stadium.
The Jags are down to their No. 4 running back, Montell Owens (didn’t he used to host a TV talk show?), and could be without No. 1 receiver Cecil Shorts, who has a concussion.
Expecting Mark Sanchez to make the most of the lifeline Rex Ryan gave him, at least for the first game.
The pick: Jets -2 1/2.
Saints (+5) over GIANTS: Big Blue has stepped up against the big boys and blown out the 49ers and Packers, and that could happen here against the defensively challenged Saints. But if New Orleans is still desperate instead of resigned at 5-7, figuring this shootout will land inside the shrinking but still significant spread.
REDSKINS (-2 1/2) over Ravens: It says something when the Giants’ defensive players are relieved to go up against Drew Brees rather than Robert Griffin III. Redskins are hot (three wins in a row), and the Shanahans are figuring out how to use RG3 and Alfred Morris better every week. The banged-up Ravens D will have its hands full.
BROWNS (-6 1/2) over Chiefs: Thinking the Chiefs’ uprising against the Panthers was based purely on the emotion of the Jovan Belcher incident. Here, they go back to being the Chiefs against a rapidly improving Browns team.
STEELERS (-6) over Chargers: Steelers get a huge lift from Ben Roethlisberger’s expected return, but Charlie Batch clearly is capable if he has to go back in. Plus, just can’t spend another three hours living and (mostly) dying with the Chargers.
COLTS (-5 1/2) over Titans: Colts won the first match 19-13 in OT in Tennessee in October. Like the Redskins, Indy is getting better as the season goes along and the coaches get a better handle on Andrew Luck.
VIKINGS (+3) over Bears: Adrian Peterson ran all over the Packers, but Christian Ponder threw away the win and Blair Walsh blew the cover. This time, at home against a Brian Urlacher-less Bears D, the Vikes get it right.
PANTHERS (+3 1/2) over Falcons: The Falcons can clinch a bye and also home-field throughout the playoffs with a win, but at 11-1 they are so far in front they won’t have any urgency. Good spot for Cam Newton, but he wishes tight end Greg Olsen (back) were healthier.
BUCCANEERS (-7 1/2) over Eagles: Eagles could have something going with Nick Foles and Bryce Brown, but it seems they put everything they had into an upset of the Cowboys and will be deflated after it didn’t happen. Also, tough travel situation after Sunday-nighter on road.
Rams (+3) over BILLS: Willing to take the points here with a Rams team that has tied and beaten the 49ers. Bills also have tough task of replacing center Eric Wood so late in the season.
BENGALS (-3) over Cowboys: If anyone catches the Giants, it’ll be the Redskins, not the Cowboys. Texas kid Andy Dalton will riddle the Dallas secondary on his home turf.
Dolphins (+10) over 49ERS: Las Vegas is expecting the usual bounceback off a loss by the Niners, but the Dolphins rank 11th in the NFL with 20.8 points per game allowed. If they limit the damage to near that number, Ryan Tannehill can keep this close enough.
Cardinals (+10) over Seahawks: The Cardinals rank seventh in points against at 19.1, so we’ll take a shot getting double digits, particularly after watching their defense play last week. John Skelton returns. Not a great option, but he can’t be worse than Ryan Lindley.
PACKERS (-7) over Lions: It’ll be in the upper 20s with a chance of rain and snow for this Sunday-nighter as we finally see some challenging conditions. Would be a good spot for a last stand on national TV for the 4-8 Lions, but then again, these are the Lions.
MONDAY NIGHT
PATRIOTS (-3 1/2) over Texans: Just not buying the 11-1 Texans as the class of the AFC. Tom Brady and the Patriots will be full out to prove that’s still their distinction.
BEST BETS: Bengals, Colts, Cardinals
LAST WEEK: 6-10 overall, 1-2 Best Bets
LOCK OF THE WEEK: Bengals (Locks 4-9 in 2012)
LAST NIGHT: Raiders (L)