It’s the most unpredictable time of the year. With coaches changing jobs, draft-eligible players thinking more about getting themselves ready for the next level than the Beef O’Brady’s Bowl and other players fumbling their academic eligibility, picking bowl games is nut-cracking, not Nutcracker time.
Here’s our guide to picking the bowl games:
Stay away from a team that has lost its head coach, especially if the coach had a strong emotional bond with his players only to screw them — see former Wisconsin coach Bret Bielema.
Many bowl games are neutral-site games but many are not. Vanderbilt gets N.C. State in the Music City Bowl in Nashville.
Be wary, very wary, of teams that have no interest in being at their bowl game: See Nebraska vs Georgia in the Capital One Bowl instead of playing Stanford in the Rose Bowl.
Here we go:
NEW MEXICO: Arizona (-9.5) over Nevada
RichRod is winning over Tucson and the Wolfpack lost four of their last five.
IDAHO POTATO: Utah St. (-10.5 ) over Toledo
Unlike coaches who keep the suitcase by the side of the bed, Gary Andersen has made Utah State into a tough program. Game is in Idaho, edge to the Aggies.
POINSETTIA: BYU (-2.5) over San Diego St.
Granted the game is in San Diego, but BYU fans will fill at least half the house and Cougars benefit from having played a much tougher schedule.
BEEF O’BRADY: UCF (-7) over Ball St.
Game is in St. Petersburg, Fla. Golden Knights lost three of four games by six or less points and could have won at Ohio State.
NEW ORLEANS: Louisiana-Lafayette (-5.5) over EAST Carolina
The game is in New Orleans and Ragin Cajun coach Mark Hudspeth is a comer.
LAS VEGAS: Boise St. (-5.5) over Washington
Puzzlingly low line. Boise lost two games by a total of five points. Washington coach Steve Sarkisian has not gotten his program over the hump.
HAWAII: Fresno St. (-12) over SMU
Bulldogs won their last five, scoring more than 40 in each game. What happened to that June Jones magic?
LITTLE CAESARS: W. Kentucky (-5.5) over CENTRAL Michigan
The Chippewas snuck into this bowl game at 6-6 by winning their last three against the bottom of the MAC. Plus, the Bobby Petrino era begins at Western. Will he enter the stadium on a motorcycle?
MILITARY: Bowling Green (+7) over San Jose St.
Spartans reeling after losing coach Mike MacIntyre to Colorado. Falcons’ only loss in their last eight games was to Kent St.
BELK: Duke (+7.5) over Cincinnati
Cincy just lost coach Butch Jones to Tennessee. Blue Devils haven’t been to a bowl since 2005. Yes, we know they lost their last four, but the game is in Charlotte.
HOLIDAY: UCLA (-1) over Baylor
Baylor plays no defense; UCLA plays some. Bet the over, (80) of that we are sure.
INDEPENDENCE: Louisiana-Monroe (-7) over Ohio
We neglected this tip — always pick a team playing in the school’s first bowl game. And it’s basically a home game for the Warhawks.
RUSSELL ATHLETIC: Virginia Tech (-2.5) over Rutgers
Remember what we said about not picking teams that aren’t excited about their bowl destination. Rutgers had dreams of playing in the Orange Bowl. Instead, it’s the Russell Athletic Bowl. Knights lost to the three best opponents on their schedule.
MEINEKE: Texas Tech (-12.5) over Minnesota
Tommy Tuberville left to take the Cincy job so that’s addition by subtraction for the Red Raiders. New hire (and a great one, Kliff Kingsbury) gets to work right away. And the Golden Gophers went 2-6 in a down Big Ten.
ARMED FORCES: Air Force (-1) over Rice
One other rule, in pick ’em games — we consider one-point pick ’em — always pick the men in our Armed Forces. They win the close ones.
PINSTRIPE: Syracuse (+4) over W. Virginia
No team in the Big East finished stronger than ’Cuse, which, unlike West Virginia, has embraced the concept that defense isn’t an accessory.
FIGHT HUNGER: Arizona St. (-14.5) over Navy
Navy’s season ended last week with the emotional win over Army.
ALAMO: Oregon St. (-2) over Texas
Everyone loves Mack Brown, especially AD DeLoss Dodds. But how many years does a guy get to milk a national championship? Texas should perennially walk with the likes of Alabama and USC. Mike Riley gets as much out of his team as any coach in the country.
BUFFALO WILD WINGS: TCU (-2.5) over Michigan St.
Despite having more than a month to look, Spartans still unable to find an offense. They went 3-5 in a down Big Ten.
MUSIC CITY: Vanderbilt (-6.5) over NC StATE
The Wolfpack begin the regretting of firing of Tom O’Brien. Home game for the Commodores.
SUN: Georgia Tech (+10) over USC
The Trojans certainly didn’t see themselves in the Sun Bowl and Tech is People’s Exhibit A in the trial of ‘The People versus There are Too Many Bowl Games!’ Tech is 6-7 and the six wins were against the six worst opponents on the schedule. But the Jackets will show up and play, and that option attack could really bust up USC’s defense.
LIBERTY: Tulsa (-1) over Iowa St.
Rematch. Golden Hurricanes have a chance to avenge a season-opening 38-23 loss at Iowa State.
CHICK-FIL-A: LSU (-4) over Clemson
The Mad Hatter against Dabo Swinney. It’s like a coaching reality show. Reality — Clemson had two big games this season (FSU and South Carolina) and lost them both.
GATOR: Northwestern (+2) over Mississippi St.
Bulldogs lost 4 of 5 down the stretch. Wildcats lost three games — at Penn State in which they were winning late, by one to Nebraska and in OT at Michigan.
HEART OF DALLAS: Oklahoma St. (-16.5) over Purdue
Purdue hired Kent State coach Darrell Hazel, who will split time between Kent’s bowl game and Purdue’s. Mike Gundy isn’t going anywhere as long as Boone Pickens wants him.
OUTBACK: S. Carolina (-5) over Michigan
An SEC school is faster and more physical than a Big Ten school — Version 1,628.
CAPITAL ONE: Georgia (-10) over Nebraska
An SEC school is faster and more physical than a Big Ten school — Version 1,629. Cornhuskers could have gone to the Rose Bowl, but instead gave up 70 points to Wisconsin in the Big Ten title game.
ROSE: Stanford (-6.5) over Wisconsin
Stanford is the best two-loss team in America. Wisconsin just lost its coach, Bret Bielema, who took Arkansas and $4 million a year over a great job for life.
ORANGE: N. Illinois (+13.5) over Florida State
We got it, Northern Illinois is overmatched at every position. If the Seminoles jump on the Huskies early, it’s over. But if not, the Noles are one of the least mentally tough teams in the nation. Sentimental pick, we admit.
SUGAR: Florida (-13.5) over Louisville
Teddy Bridgewater is a modern day Johnny Unitas with his toughness, and coach Charlie Strong’s decision to stay in Louisville was the right call. But Bridgewater and the Cards have never faced a defense like this.
FIESTA: Oregon (-9) over Kansas St.
Remember what Baylor did to K-State? Oregon’s offense is better and faster. A matchup nightmare for the Wildcats.
COTTON: Texas A&M (-4.5) over Oklahoma
OK, Johnny Football loses his offensive coordinator (Kliff Kingsbury) to Texas Tech and he hasn’t gotten much sleep with that Heisman Trophy poking him in the ribs. But coach Kevin Sumlin is the real magic man in College Station.
COMPASS: Mississippi (-3.5) over Pittsburgh
Two really solid first-year coaches in the right jobs. Hugh Freeze has really got the Rebels believing they can win in the SEC. Big home-field advantage in Birmingham, Ala. Taking the SEC team over the Big East/ACC team.
GODADDY.com: Kent State (+4) over Arkansas St.
Darrell Hazell has taken the Purdue job, but he will coach Kent State in the bowl. Arkansas State loses coach Guz Malzahn to Auburn.
BCS CHAMPIONSHIP: Alabama (-10) over Notre Dame
Please, we don’t want to hear from the ND crowd that calls you a hater if you go against the Golden Domers. One question Irish: Have you seen Alabama’s offensive line?!