Today
Packers (-3) over BEARS: Been aggressive fading the Monsters of the Midway, and see no reason to alter course, given QB Jay Cutler’s current pinata status (featuring his sprained MCL), the sordid state of the Bears’ offensive line, kicker Robbie Gould on injured reserve, and QB Aaron Rogers calling the shots for the Packers. Sustained Chicago woes against this foe hardly ended with Brett Favre’s career. But the Bears don’t have to win this, if they win out against Arizona and Detroit.
Giants (+1 1/2) over FALCONS: The Falcons’ schedule has been Cupcake City, QB Matt Ryan largely has been spared the cream of the league’s pass rushes. RB Michael Turner was good for just 41 yards in last year’s playoff stuffing, and the Falcons still can’t stop the run. The Giants are well-positioned to confirm their superiority, despite Ahmad Bradshaw’s absence.
Buccaneers (+3 1/2) over SAINTS: Certain Paul Tagliabue’s recent pronouncements regarding Bountygate brought smiles to the Big Easy, but the Saints’ secondary remains MIA, and don’t mention the special teams. Off three frustrating losses, Tampa Bay extracts home-loss revenge behind QB Josh Freeman. At worst, this is “last score wins.”
RAMS (-3) over Vikings: Minnesota held on over the Bears after an earlier Adrian Peterson explosion in Chicago, but the only good Vikings road win this year was a great technical setup at Detroit in Week 4. The St. Louis defense against QB Christian Ponder looms as a borderline mismatch.
BROWNS (+1) over Redskins: Midweek hints we absorbed were dead-on: QB Kirk Cousins took first-team snaps with the Redskins during the week’s practices and will get the start over Robert Griffin III (knee). Lean toward the underdog, even with a banged-up Trent Richardson.
Jaguars (+7) over DOLPHINS: Any absence of WR Cecil Shorts exacerbates the Jaguars’ offensive problems, already critical with the non-availability of RB Maurice Jones-Drew. But not rushing to the Dolphins at the required hefty lay.
Broncos (-2 1/2) over RAVENS: Baltimore will be hard-pressed to miss the playoffs even with a third straight loss. The Ravens have owned the Broncos, here, but that was before the advent of the QB Peyton Manning, who has taken out this foe seven straight times. Meaningful seeding issues are at stake.
TEXANS (-8 1/2) over Colts: Houston certainly doesn’t want to have to beat these guys in Reliant Stadium two weeks hence to maintain the top AFC seeding. Patriots QB Tom Brady last week highlighted the Texans’ defensive frailties against high-octane passing attacks, but don’t know what the Colts can do to slow QB Matt Schaub.
Panthers (+3) over CHARGERS: The Chargers took advantage of Big Ben Roethlisberger’s early rust-fest last week, sprinted well clear and couldn’t be caught. But that was the Chargers’ first win over a legit team all year, and looked to be coach Norv Turner’s final flourish. It’s hard to imagine a more dangerous no-pressure, sub-.500 outfit right now than QB Cam Newton’s Panthers.
BILLS (+5) over Seahawks (Rogers Centre, Toronto): The Seahawks have been great to us in their rise to power, but this is a significant lay on what isn’t quite a neutral field. We have loved Russell Wilson since his N.C. State days, but he is coming off a far-too-easy win over the Cardinals, which had to take the edge off. RB C.J. Spiller has been the key to the Bills’ success when he has carried 10-plus times.
CARDINALS (+6) over Lions: The Lions haven’t played a good game here in forever, have won one 2012 game by more than four points, and even a dead-cat bounce from Arizona after last week’s 58-0 shellacking could put them within range against these career underachievers, even if they’re using QB Ryan “Horror” Lindley.
Steelers (-1 1/2) over COWBOYS: The Cowboys clearly need this desperately, but in an era in which Jimmy Johnson’s franchise influence has been wholly absent, Dallas’ “need” seldom has translated into on-field success, given the repeated instances of Dismemberment Decembers for QB Tony Romo.
Chiefs (+3) over RAIDERS: At this site, this rivalry has often boiled down to sheer desire, and the Chiefs have long wanted it more.
PATRIOTS (-5 1/2) over 49ers: The number has been played up, but at the prevailing market, this seems to be about 49ers QB Colin Kaepernick not making repeated crucial errors in judgment in December football which matters. We’re not ready to expect that against the enormously dangerous offense the 49ers will be facing.
TOMORROW
Jets (+1 1/2) over TITANS: QB Jake Locker as a favorite? Will givethe Jets’ defense and rushing another chance for them to remain alive, on the playoff fringes. Gang Green has outperformed expectations against every AFC South team they have faced, including a 35-9 stomping of Andrew Luck’s precious Colts.
LAST WEEK: 6-9. SEASON: 98-92-4.
Follow Richard Witt on Twitter: @Rich_Witt1.