The 12th season of “American Idol” adds new judges (from left): Mariah Carey, Keith Urban and Nicki Minaj. (AP)
(from left): Khloe Kardashian Odom and Britney Spears say farewell to departing “X Factor” contestant Arin Ray with Mario Lopez. (
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With “The Voice” and “The X Factor” ending their fall runs this week, Americans may be getting weary of amateur night. The earnest power pop. The tearful embraces among contestants. The entitlement (“I was born to be a star”) that morphs into obscurity (“You mean, I’m going back to waiting tables in. . . Bakersfield? What?”) faster than a chord change. The oversaturation is obvious. Singing competitions take up four nights per week — and the ratings are down across the board, but there’s no letup in sight.
“American Idol,” which returns for a 12th season on Fox in 2013, has seen the genre’s biggest drop-offs.
Last spring, with judges Steven Tyler, Jennifer Lopez and Randy Jackson, “Idol” plunged 23 percent among viewers in both its Wednesday performance and Thursday results shows, moving from 26.2 million viewers in 2011 to 20.1 million viewers on Wednesday nights and from 24 million to 18.5 million viewers on Thursday nights. Among the key advertising demographic of adults aged 18 to 49, the drops were even more dramatic, with “Idol” eroding nearly 30 percent on Wednesday nights and 27 percent on Thursday nights. The show’s finale, in which Dave Matthews clone Phillip Phillips took the “Idol” crown, was the lowest in its history.
There’s always a lot of pressure for “Idol” to remain No. 1, since it’s the show that’s carried Fox to first place for the past decade, but its sinking fortunes are not entirely surprising. Fox warns every year that this could finally be the year that “Idol” fades for good, but the bigger surprise has been its staying power. The only scripted show that can bring in anywhere near its numbers is CBS war horse “NCIS.”
Last year, however, the contestant pool on “Idol” was universally deemed weak and the novelty of the judges wore off. Moreover, NBC’s “The Voice” came out of nowhere to become the first entertainment show to beat “Idol” — or even come close to it — in years.
Meanwhile, “The Voice,” adapted for NBC by Mark Burnett from Talpa’s runaway hit “The Voice of Holland,” premiered in April 2011 and quickly became prime time’s third-highest-rated entertainment show, behind only “Idol.”
Comparing “The Voice”’s results this fall to last spring, the show that stars judges Christina Aguilera, Cee Lo Green, Adam Levine and Blake Shelton is down 15 percent among adults 18-49 and 12 percent in total viewers to 13.5 million viewers this cycle from 15.3 million last spring. However, this fall’s live episodes are scoring higher ratings than last spring’s live shows, with an 8 percent increase on Monday nights in the demo and 9 percent on Tuesdays. (Last spring, “The Voice” aired on Tuesdays and Wednesdays. This fall, it’s airing on Monday and Tuesdays.)
Finally, Simon Cowell’s “The X Factor” has been somewhat ratings-challenged ever since it launched in September 2011. Adding celebrity judges such as Britney Spears and Demi Lovato didn’t really help. The Wednesday night edition slipped 22 percent to an average of 10 million viewers. Thursday’s decline was even more precipitous, down 23 percent to 9.8 million viewers from 12.7 million viewers.
Considering these figures, will TV soon be bereft of its beloved singing competitions?
No way, say analysts.
“Singing competitions are live events, and particularly as they head toward their conclusions, people enjoy watching them live,” says Bill Carroll, vice president, director of programming at Katz Television Group. “They are an important factor in maintaining viewership of broadcast television.”
Competition shows, such as NBC’s summer hit, “America’s Got Talent,” with live performances are foolproof DVR-busters — people prefer to be a part of the live process. “The X Factor” is by far TV’s most chatted-about show when it comes to social media, according to tracking site Trendrr.TV.
“The majority of the audience ends up watching these shows live or on the same day that they air,” says Carroll, and then tweets about them or registers its opinion on TV watcher sites GetGlue or Viggle.
What’s more, the shows may be down but they certainly aren’t out. The Monday-night edition of “The Voice” is TV’s third-ranked entertainment show among adults 18-49, behind only ABC’s “Modern Family” and CBS’s “The Big Bang Theory.” The Tuesday night results show is the sixth-ranked show in that key demo. Last winter, “American Idol” and “The Voice” were ranked one, two and three, even though “Idol” lost almost a third of its younger viewership.
“Even though there have been declines, these shows still rank in the top 10 or 20,” says Brad Adgate, senior vice president and director of research at Horizon Media. “How do you replace that with a new show and get the same viewing levels that these types of shows get? And they bring in a lot of social media — they tend to be the most talked-about shows on television.”
“The Voice” is also credited with moving NBC from fourth to first place this fall. The network is up 21 percent in total viewers and 23 percent among adults 18-49 while the other broadcast networks are down.
This winter, NBC plans to debut “The Winner Is,” the third singing show to be hosted by former 98 Degrees singer Nick Lachey. Like “The Voice,” “The Winner Is” comes from Talpa Media. In this show, singers must decide whether to take the cash and bow out or continue and vie for the top prize of a “life-changing sum of money.”
“The Voice” returns in March, with new judges. Shakira and Usher will sub for Christina Aguilera and Cee Lo Green. Says Burnett: “We made a conscious decision to bring on hosts who were at the top of their game and we have to make time for them,” he says. “It requires us to allow for rotating judges.”
Burnett predicts “The Voice” could run as long as “Survivor.” “There’s only one thing that determines longevity: quality and keeping it fresh. ‘The Voice’ is No. 1 on Mondays and Tuesdays.”
THE VOICE
Mon., 8 p.m. & Tues., 9 p.m., NBC
THE X FACTOR
Wed. & Thurs., 8 p.m., Fox
AMERICAN IDOL
Jan. 16, 8 p.m., Fox