Sports

On road to Supe title Patriots DB Talib is Bill’s …

Aqib Talib (
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If you have an elite quarterback, or a hot quarterback, or an elite quarterback getting hot at the right time, and a healthy team, and a great head coach, you can win a Super Bowl.

Rex Ryan won’t be kissing just four Bill Belichick rings come next summer.

The emergence this season of a running game — Stevan Ridley is a better back than Laurence Maroney — and the return for the playoffs of red zone nightmare tight end/PAT blocker Rob Gronkowski is just what Dr. Tom Brady ordered.

But it is a vintage Bill Belichick gambit that will get the Patriots over the hump.

Aqib Talib.

He is a big, physical cornerback who can Belicheckmate the big, physical receivers who stand in the path of the Lombardi Trophy, on a rebuilt defense that is peaking at the right time.

Before I hand the trophy to Belichick and Robert Kraft, Serby Says takes a look at the legitimate threats to yet another horrific ending for Jets Nation:

THE CONTENDERS

BRONCOS (10-3): Peyton Manning better get Brady and Belichick at home in any AFC Championship game. But here’s the problem — Talib will be a matchup problem for Demaryius Thomas. Belicheckmate.

Rookie Chandler Jones, Rob Ninkovich and Jerod Mayo can make Peyton uncomfortable. And Brady will get the ball out quickly — and accurately — to neutralize pass rush demon Von Miller. Vince Wilfork will swallow Knowshon Moreno whole.

GIANTS (8-5): Eli Manning and Tom Coughlin have to make the playoffs first. But unless Jason Pierre-Paul, who has been held sackless for four straight weeks, leads a pass rush revival, the third time will be the charm for Brady and Belichick.

49ERS (9-3-1): Jim Harbaugh has to get past the NFC Championship game first. He has made his bet on Colin Kaepernick. That’s a bad bet against Belichick. Alfonso Smith would have to wreck the game. Tune in tonight for a preview.

TEXANS (11-2): Their only chance would be to jump out fast, because Matt Schaub isn’t going to beat Brady and Belichick if he has to play catchup and Arian Foster is taken out of the game. Here’s the problem: Talib would be a matchup problem for Andre Johnson. Belicheckmate.

PACKERS (9-4): Aaron Rodgers would be all the more dangerous should Greg Jennings (groin) become a factor alongside Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb. But the slant has been problematic for A-Rod against the Cover 2. And that ain’t Paul Hornung and Jim Taylor running the ball. Clay Matthews (hamstring) returns today to bolster a sagging pass rush, but he still needs help.

RAVENS (9-4): Ray Lewis’ return (triceps) will provide an inspirational boost, but how effective can he and Terrell Suggs (biceps) be? John Harbaugh should have dismissed offensive coordinator Cam Cameron earlier. Ray (fourth-and-29) Rice is everybody’s headache, but Joe Flacco (five fumbles in last four games) operating Jim Caldwell’s no-huddle won’t scare anybody. Here’s the problem: Talib would be a matchup problem for Anquan Boldin. Belicheckmate.

FALCONS (11-2): They don’t run it enough, don’t rush the passer enough, don’t stop the run enough, and Matty Ice is 0-3 in the playoffs. Guilty until proven innocent.

STEELERS (7-6): A Super Bowl coach, a Hall of Fame defensive coordinator and Ben Roethlisberger means you don’t count them out. But Dick LeBeau hasn’t erected a vintage Steel Curtain (seven interceptions, 20th in sacks thanks to more three-step drops). But wait: World Team’s quarterback is lobbying for more playing time for Plaxico Burress!

PRETENDERS

JETS (6-7): Imagine if Ryan crashes the postseason party with a five-game winning streak. Imagine if Mark Sanchez-to-Braylon Edwards becomes Joe Montana-to-Jerry Rice. Imagine if Tony Sparano was saving Tim Tebow and the Wildcat for the playoffs. If you can imagine all that, you can imagine no one wanting to play the Butt Uglies.

VIKINGS (7-6): Adrian Peterson would have to run all day to help shaky Christian Ponder, and now defenses are employing the Cover 2 to stop him from breaking long runs. And Percy Harvin no longer can help.

BEARS (8-5): The only guy Jay Cutler looks for in the passing game is Brandon Marshall. Lovie Smith, suddenly on the hot seat after losing four of the past five games, will need more from Brian Urlacher (hamstring), out for the rest of the regular season, and Matt Forte.

BENGALS (8-6): Geno Atkins leads Mike Zimmer’s disruptive pass rush (league-best 42 sacks), but Andy Dalton was under siege by the Eagles and needs a complement for A.J. Green, who needs more targets anyway. And Marvin Lewis better clean up the penalty issue fast.

COLTS (9-4): Everyone should be rooting for Chuck Pagano’s return to the sidelines following his battle with leukemia. But Andrew Luck’s six fourth-quarter and overtime game-winning drives will be more difficult to come by against better defenses. Reggie Wayne, meet Aqib Talib. Belicheckmate.

COWBOYS (7-6): It’s just so difficult to trust Tony Romo and Jason Garrett. And how much of a problem will Dez Bryant’s finger be? Plus, no Sean Lee and Bruce Carter and Josh Brent and Jay Ratliff means soft run defense.

REDSKINS (7-6): Robert Griffin III has made them all believe, but he can’t help the secondary, can he? Mike Shanahan plays it safe today, instead of risking a Mistake By the Lake, starting Kirk Cousins instead of RGknee.

SEAHAWKS (8-5): The game certainly is not too big for rookie Russell Wilson, nor is he too short for the game. Marshawn Lynch will be in Beast Mode against the Bills today. But Pete Carroll’s imposing secondary won’t get to play John Skelton in the postseason, and one Fail Mary is the quota.

UnbeataBill Belichick.

steve.serby@nypost.com