Once upon a time, the 11-2 Falcons would be considered the class of the NFC and the 8-5 Giants would be just another team battling for a playoff spot.
But that was before lower seeds started consistently breaking through to claim the Lombardi Trophy, including the past two years with the Packers and Giants going from wild-card weekend to Super Bowl champion. How you start the regular season is important, but how you finish it has become the predictor of postseason success.
“What has happened over the last two years with the Packers and Giants, both teams that got hot at the right time of year and got on a roll before the playoffs. Everyone is looking for that team,” said FOX analyst Daryl Johnston, who will be in the booth for Sunday’s showdown in Atlanta.
“Not the team with the best record, the one that’s playing the best football and will be able to carry that momentum into the postseason. … That was the big thing last year: The Giants felt if they could knock off the Jets, knock off Dallas to make the playoffs, then they could play with anybody.”
No one can question the Giants’ Super Bowl credentials with two championships in the past five seasons, but they are far from a lock to be in the playoffs with a one-game lead over the Redskins and Cowboys in the NFC East. For the second straight year that division may only send one team to the postseason, and you could not blame the rest of the NFC if they were quietly rooting for the Falcons to clear the path for Dallas and Washington.
“If they can string some wins together going into the postseason everyone is going to look at New York as that scary team that’s gotten on a roll again, and we know what they’ve done in the past,” Johnston said.
So, even though the Falcons have already locked up the NFC South and are in tremendous position for a first-round bye, this game is far from meaningless for a team few consider the conference favorite. Atlanta’s playoff appearances with Matt Ryan at quarterback and Mike Smith as coach have all been one-and-done affairs, but in the past two years those losses have come to Green Bay and the Giants — the eventual champions.
“Their problem is when they make it into the playoffs they have not played well,” Johnston said. “Sometimes, I’ll stick up for them. They’ve been to the playoffs three times recently and they’ve played the eventual NFC champion in those games, and two of the three [Giants, Packers] have gone on to win the Super Bowl. … But that’s the area where they’ve struggled and if you go into the playoffs and you are not sure what’s going to happen it’s going to be really, really tough for Atlanta. It’s important for them to win out to have that confidence going in.”
When Johnston was playing fullback for the Cowboys, the team won three Super Bowls in the mid-90’s and each season they were either the 1 or 2 seed in the NFC.
“It’s not like it was when I played. The No. 1 seed was almost guaranteed to go to the Super Bowl,” he said. “The top seed never lost their first game. I don’t know when the transition came, but the game has changed. It just seems like the record and body of work during the regular season isn’t as important as who’s the scary team in the playoffs.”