BUSH IN 16: Reggie Bush and the Dolphins will run away from the Bills in their Week 16 matchup in Miami. (Getty Images)
As We sit here this morning, the Giants are not yet in the playoffs and the Ravens are, which suggests a motivational edge for the Giants. Kickoff has been flexed to 4:25 p.m., so the Giants will see results for the Redskins and Cowboys. But losses by those teams won’t help the Giants if they lose, too, so that need factor will still be in place.
The two scary factors for the Giants are the possible return of Ray Lewis, and the edge running and check-down receiving of Ray Rice. But Eli Manning can blunt the effects of Lewis’ pregame exhortation with a quick score, and the Ravens offense is a mess that new coordinator Jim Caldwell is struggling to sort out.
The Giants have been in similar spots and used them to springboard to championships. They deserve the benefit of the doubt that they have cast on themselves in the second half of the season.
The pick: Giants -2 1/2.
Falcons (-3 1/2) over LIONS (tomorrow night): Falcons have a chance to win their first Super Bowl without having to step outside again. They can clinch home field in the NFC playoffs with a win here, and bettors benefit from this being a Saturday nighter, where the scoreboard won’t alter the motivation. Lions not only were the first team in more than two months to lose to the Cardinals, they did so by four TDs.
JETS (-2) over Chargers: This pick would be easier if the Chargers hadn’t come east and won in Pittsburgh just two weeks ago. But last week’s 31-7 home loss to Carolina plus Ryan Mathews’ injury plus the long trip and cold weather add up to a Chargers no-show. At least the Jets might rally around first-time starter Greg McElroy.
Titans (+12 1/2) over PACKERS: Packers already have clinched NFC North, and now a first-round bye requires another 49ers slip-up. Mike McCarthy is more likely to rest any ailing players here than go for the near-blowout this spread demands.
PANTHERS (-9) over Raiders: A little concerned about the spread because the Raiders are coming off a shutout win. But the Panthers have the offense humming at full throttle now (albeit too late at 5-9). Cam Newton has 10 TDs and zero INTs in his past five games.
DOLPHINS (-4 1/2) over Bills: Line seems light considering the Dolphins are home off a 21-point win and the Bills are traveling off a 33-point loss. Perhaps it’s that the Bills won the first meeting 19-14 on Nov. 15, but they have had a lot of bad times since. Grabbing the bargain.
Bengals (+3 1/2) over STEELERS: Teams largely are fighting for the second AFC wild-card slot, though there still are some other long-shot opportunities. Bengals have been the more consistent team, have been good on the road (5-2), and have three extra days’ rest for this, a big edge at this time of season.
JAGUARS (+14 1/2) over Patriots: If this were any other part of the season, you would have to consider laying these. But with two games to go and the No. 3 seed in the AFC looking most likely, can’t see Bill Belichick doing anything risky with Tom Brady’s ailing right shoulder.
Colts (-6 1/2) over CHIEFS: Seven of the Colts’ nine wins have been by six or fewer points, and another was by seven. So this spread, on the road, in a game of such importance, is a bit scary. But the thought here is Andrew Luck will continue to come of age, and he will put the Colts into the playoffs with some room to spare.
COWBOYS (-2 1/2) over Saints: This could be the most fun game to watch all weekend, with Drew Brees and Tony Romo flinging it all over Jerry’s playpen. Just hard to figure which Saints defense will show up — the one that gave up 52 two weeks ago to the Giants or zero last week to the Bucs.
Redskins (-6 1/2) over EAGLES: Robert Griffin III is expected to start, but even if Kirk Cousins has to come back in, the Redskins’ offense is rolling behind inspired play-calling by Shanahan & Son (31 points or more in four of the last five games).
Rams (+3) over BUCCANEERS: Bucs had a good thing going for a while with Josh Freeman and Doug Martin, but that ha been obscured by four straight losses, including 41-0 last week. Hoping we get the Rams here who tied and beat the 49ers.
Vikings (+8) over TEXANS: Houston still has a little work to do to clinch AFC top seed, but at more than a touchdown, we will take Adrian Peterson any time, anywhere.
BRONCOS (-13) over Browns: The memory suggests to you the Browns have played a lot of close games this season but the record sheet does show four losses by double-digits. Broncos need to keep winning to stay ahead of the Patriots (or can clinch the AFC No. 2 seed if the Pats lose).
Bears (-5 1/2) over CARDINALS: Are the Bears really going to careen out of the playoffs with a late nosedive for the second year in a row? This is a great spot for them to right their ship, though the Cards did romp last week to end a nine-game skid.
SEAHAWKS (pick) over 49ers: Big win in New England gave the Niners some breathing room, and they can clinch the NFC West next week at home vs. Arizona. Gotta grab Seahawks in prime time at home.
BEST BETS: Dolphins, Falcons, Panthers.
LAST WEEK: 6-10 overall, 1-2 Best Bets.
LOCK OF THE WEEK: Dolphins (Locks 5-10)