ANDREW LOCK: Rookie sensation Andrew Luck and the underdog Colts are the pick on Sunday in Baltimore. (
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The NFL is making us wait until Sunday to see Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III play their first postseason games, but here, we’ll get to those two rookie superstars right off the snap.
SUNDAY
Colts (+6 1/2) over RAVENS; Under 47: The Colts are more than just Luck, they are the Luck and Chuck Show. Coach Chuck Pagano, who missed most of the season to undergo treatments for leukemia, has been the emotional driving force behind the Colts’ quick resurgence.
Pagano very well may turn out to be the most important man on the field Sunday. He was hired by the Colts from the Ravens, for whom he worked three years as secondary coach and one as defensive coordinator. His intimate knowledge of this opponent’s strengths, weaknesses and tendencies is something John Harbaugh cannot match on the opposite sideline.
Ray Lewis will be returning for the Ravens, who sputtered late but recovered enough for one big win over the Giants. He will have the house rockin’, at least at the start.
But while the Colts do not have as many playoff-tested names as do the Ravens, they do have one really good new name, Luck. The No. 1 overall pick from Stanford threw for an NFL rookie record 4,374 yards and, more importantly, had seven game-winning drives in the fourth quarter or overtime, tied for the most of any quarterback since 1970. This guy is a winner who creates playmakers around him like Peyton Manning did. And while he’s still getting good mileage out of Manning favorite Reggie Wayne, Luck is also helping to turn fellow rookie T.Y. Hilton into a star.
Considering the Colts have the better record (11-5 vs. 10-6) and enter the playoffs on more of a roll, the spread seems a little generous.
Colts, 23-20
REDSKINS (+3) over Seahawks; Over 46: If you look at some of the key matchups, facts and figures, this shapes up as pretty much a dead heat. The QBs are neck and neck (Russell Wilson 3,118 yards, 26 TDs, 10 INTs, 100.0 rating; RG3 3,200 yards, 20 TDS, 5 INTs, 102.4 rating). Both teams come in smoking hot (Hawks 7-1, Skins 7-0).
In an even matchup, the spread would normally be home team by three, and this number is six points off of that, at visitor by three. Interesting.
The worry for the Skins is the health of RG3’s knee. But if he’s at near full strength, it’ll be hard for the Hawks to deal with the read option, in which Alfred Morris (1,613 yards) can go right or RG3 can keep it left, and the defense won’t know who will carry it until the last moment.
The hesitation about the Seahawks is that they were 8-0 at home and 3-5 on the road, and one of those road wins came against the Bills’ offsite in Toronto. Just get the suspicion much of the respect for this team was built in favorable conditions they will not enjoy here.
Finally, there is Mike Shanahan, who has two Super Bowl rings. He rates at least some edge over Pete Carroll.
Redskins, 31-27
TOMORROW
Bengals (+4 1/2) over TEXANS; Under 43 1/2: This is a rematch of last year’s wild-card game, which the Texans won 31-10 as Arian Foster ran for 153 yards and two TDs and T.J. Yates outclassed Andy Dalton in a battle of rookie QBs.
Now the Texans have Matt Schaub under center so this one should be at least as easy, right? Well, no.
The Texans have the look of a team that peaked too early. They were 11-1 when they went into Foxborough and got destroyed 42-14 by the Patriots, and they haven’t been the same since. It’s distressing that they went down so meekly against the Vikings (23-7) in Week 17, when a win would have clinched home field in the AFC.
The Bengals, meanwhile. have a playoff-tested RB in BenJarvus Green-Ellis, elite WR A.J. Green (1,350 yards) and a difficult-to-deal-with sack tandem in Geno Atkins (12.5) and Michael Johnson (12).
Bengals, 23-16
PACKERS (-7 1/2) over Vikings, Over 46: Adrian Peterson rushed for 409 yards in two games against the Packers this season, and the Vikings would have won both if Christian Ponder hadn’t thrown some horrible interceptions at Lambeau in early December.
So why lay the big number here?
Mainly because we’re still dealing with Ponder in Lambeau, now on a Saturday night in January when the temps will dip below 20 degrees. Also because AP is battling abdominal injuries, and it won’t feel too pleasant taking big hits to the midsection in these temps.
Packers, 30-20.
LAST WEEK: 7-9 overall, 3-0 Best Bets.
LOCK OF THE WEEK: Colts (Locks 7-10 in 2012).