Today
REDSKINS (+3) over Seahawks; under 46: In a spectacular postseason matchup involving first-year quarterbacks, Robert Griffin III vs. Russell Wilson have surpassed all rational expectations with their 2012 performances. Redskins have won their last seven, and Seahawks went 7-1 in the season’s second half, though it turns out their path was smoothed considerably by the outrageous officiating during the Week 3 Monday-nighter’s endgame against Green Bay.
Seattle’s great signature second-half win was their stomping of San Francisco at home in Week 16. But that was the Monday night after the Niners moved heaven and earth to hold off the Patriots in Foxborough, and Frisco’s tank clearly was depleted. Their lone pure road wins were at Carolina and in the lair of the imploding Bears, while the romp over Buffalo took place in Toronto. We’re not moved. It can’t be denied they are not the same team away from their home grounds.
Griffin and rookie RB Alfred Morris make a superb combination, and will test the Seahawks defense. The Redskins secondary is not world class, but while Wilson has been throwing deep more often than he did early on, he doesn’t make a habit of it. Seattle looked good on defense at Carolina, against Cam Newton (a similar breed of QB to Griffin), thus we’re not looking for a shootout this afternoon.
But guess what? Though it doesn’t make him unique, we don’t think Pete Carroll knows how to best pace a team in order to bring them into an NFL postseason ready to perform at their consistent best … and we know Mike Shanahan does, especially when he has got the kind of offensive tools he presently enjoys. Seahawks are a long way from home, laying points with a rookie QB (however talented), and have a horrendous road playoff history (one win). It’s not rational to expect the same level of performance this outfit established at their hugely advantageous Seattle digs. Redskins’ last two playoff losses (under Joe Gibbs) came in Seattle. Shoe’s on the other foot, now, eh, what? Seattle shouldn’t be favored under these circumstances, and those who lay likely will pay.
Washington, 24-17.
RAVENS (-6 1/2) over Colts; over 47: Are we Andrew Luck fans? You bet. The kid from Stanford has the guts and steel nerve of a junior Johnny Unitas, and has been very good to us all season. Luck’s precociousness, in tandem with the spectacular story of coach Chuck Pagano in his so-far-successful battle against leukemia, has yielded one emotional high point after another for the ex-Baltimore franchise. And we’ve capitalized on many of them, including the thrilling Lucas Oil upset of Green Bay, the incredible last-moment rally against the Lions, and last week’s dramatic upset of the Texans with Pagano back in the saddle on the sidelines.
When an NFL team has the basic talent to make it work, emotion is an enormous factor in projecting game results. Now that Indianapolis enters the realities of postseason competition, it faces the Ravens — the new team, in their old home town — and the projected return of their defensive star of the new century in Ray Lewis (whose next loss will be his last, in uniform). His mere presence will be a factor. Should he actually see sustained game action, M&T Bank Stadium will go beserk.
Except for the Giants game, Baltimore has performed in disappointing fashion the past five weeks, but given the broad underperformance of the Pittsburgh/Cleveland axis, the Ravens were assured a seat at the January table during the final weeks. Now it’s time to fire up the afterburners, position Ray Rice to attack Indy’s rushing defense (the Chiefs ran up 352 ground yards in a loss to the Colts two weeks ago), and watch the defense gear up to do the caliber of Ray Lewis-style hitting this stop unit was known for, on its best days.
With some judicious personnel judgment on their side, Colts have a lot of time. Given their collective age, this could be the last roundup for what’s left of the Ravens defense, and they best make the most of it. It’s up to you, now, Joe Flacco.
Ravens, 31-20.
LAST WEEK: 8-8.
REGULAR-SEASON: 118-118-4.
Follow Richard Witt on Twitter: @Rich_Witt1.