Sports

Atlanta to cover bird battle vs. ’Hawks

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Today

FALCONS (-2 1/2) over Seahawks/UNDER 46: This is a skullbuster, because since a post-bye Miami loss and coach Pete Carroll’s unleashing of QB Russell Wilson, Seattle has terrorized the populace, beating good teams such as the Niners and Bears, and arrive here after scoring the last two dozen after spotting Robert Griffin III a quick two-touchdown lead at FedEx Field. Give ’em their props. They have swagger, and they have held up their end.

Atlanta comes in of its bye (a mixed blessing, based on recent evidence), off a home loss to Tampa Bay, in which it didn’t appear especially dedicated to the day’s proposition and got needlessly nicked-up late. Winless in the playoffs under the those now in charge, Falcons have tons to prove, and are under excruciating pressure to perform to cheerleaders’ expectations.

It would be easy to lurch Seahawks here, and take no serious issue with anyone who sees it that way. Marshawn Lynch must be licking his chops, facing a rushing defense which allows 4.8 yards per carry, Wilson has advanced by the week, and the roster’s unique height-advantaged defense speaks for itself.

Michael Turner’s no bargain at running back, but wideout Julio Jones has it all and has been most-instrumental in advancing the Falcons to this level, and when they talk about the great tight ends in NFL history, Tony Gonzalez is on the podium.

Our pointed concerns at current market levels are that Seattle has come an enormous way in a relatively brief time, is attempting to win back-to-back playoff games in the East as a very short underdog … and were fortunate in essentially inducing RG3’s breakdown last week in a game they were trailing after three quarters, after displaying zero ability to stop Griffin when he was capable. No cinch, but so long as the Falcons get off well and calm the butterflies, they could be a tough out, especially because chief Seahawks pass rusher Chris Clemons is unavailable.

Falcons, 24-20

Texans (+9 1/2) over PATRIOTS/OVER 47 1/2: There, We Said It Department.: Wade Phillips has been a great aid to the Texans’ cause since his installation as defensive coordinator, but if he tries to cover the Patriots receivers man-to-man, as in the 42-13 Monday-night fiasco in Foxborough a month ago, there’s no point in the Texans even getting off the plane.

With that settled, how do we justify going against Bill Belichick and Tom Brady at home with Billy B. having had two weeks to prepare? They were in this very spot two years ago against the Jets, which wound up in the Gang Green column, 28-21, and that example’s by no means unique. Byes have a way of disrupting precision offenses, of which the B&B hurry-up is a prime example.

Nobody in the league has played keep-away with the football better than the Texans with the smooth (and now healthy) RB Arian Foster moving the chains and eating clock, with the aid and comfort of some of the finest downfield blocking we have seen in this league in years. And speaking of keep-away, the Pats coaxed regular-season turnovers 25 times more — twenty-five — than they gave it away. That’s a tribute to their talent and coaching, but such rarified levels are not sustainable against top teams. Ask the Bears.

Now we get to Texans QB Matt Schaub, in his initial flurry of playoff exposure. Schaub remained the kind of tentative performer we abhor during much of the first half against Cincinnati, but multiple second-half tosses had the zip and authority we’re going to need to see. Of course, the unique qualities of DE J.J. Watt will go a long way toward achieving that goal, as well.

Houston’s been building towards this point for years, and here’s its shot at a gratifying payoff. They have to sustain confidence, so they cannot permit the Pats to blitz them early and throw them entirely off their game. But they possess the physical talent. Pats have a lengthy modern history of disappointing in terms of against-the-spread coverage in this market range, as Belicheck and Brady maintain the proper priorities — they play to win the game. They have covered one number in his previous seven postseason efforts at Gillette.

Patriots, 27-24

LAST WEEK: 3-1.

Over/Under: 2-2.

Follow Richard Witt on Twitter: @rich_witt1