Opinion

A whiff of change in Saudi Arabia

It’s not quite the “Arab Spring,” but even Saudi Arabia, the most change-resisting nation in the Middle East, is showing signs of being affected by the mood of the time.

Consider events of just the past week or so:

* The new Consultative Assembly has women members for the first time. In fact, a Royal Decree states that from now on women should have at least 30 percent of the 150 seats.

* Once a purely advisory body, the Consultative Assembly now has the right to introduce legislation — a major step that in time could transform this unelected body into a true parliament.

* The suggestion that female members sit in a separate hall and participate in the debates via closed-circuit TV was shot down. They’ll sit in the main hall, albeit in balconies especially reserved for them.

* The ban on employing women in public places has been partly lifted. Women can now work in a number of shops and offices, despite a chorus of disapproval from hard-line Islamists.

* The all-powerful religious police have been ordered not to stop and search people without prior approval by a judge — ending decades of harassment by self-styled moral jihadists.

* Finally, a major reshuffle within the ruling family seems to have begun, with two relatively young princes being named as governors of two crucial provinces. Prince Saud bin Nayef, 56, becomes governor of the Eastern Province; Prince Faisal bin Salman, 42, takes over in Medina.

Both princes are Western-educated and have spent time living in Europe and the United States. Prince Faisal holds a PhD in political science from Oxford. The two cousins are also well-established businessmen with a network of contacts in the Saudi and international business communities.

Saud’s appointment comes at a time of rising tension with the Eastern Province’s Shiite community. Shiites, about 15 percent of the Saudi population of 22 million, are subdivided into several sects. Much of the recent tension has been confined to the Jaafari sect, which is theologically close to Shiites in Iran.

The iron-fisted policy of the previous governor, Prince Muhammad bin Fahd, failed to calm things down. Saud is expected to try other methods, notably seeking a deal with local tribal chiefs and notables. The Eastern province is arguably the most valuable chunk of the kingdom; it holds 80 percent of Saudi Arabia’s oil wealth.

The change in Medina is also important. Medina is where the Prophet Muhammad established his first government and where he’s buried. Each year, it is the place of pilgrimage by more than 10 million Muslims from across the globe.

Yet the city of Medina is one of the kingdom’s most liberal urban centers; its support will be crucial for King Abdullah’s expected further attempts at reform.

The two appointments may also signal the House of Saud’s realization that it must pass the torch to the next generation.

Under a tradition established by the founder of the kingdom, King Abdul-Aziz, in 1932, the kingship passes from one of his 32 sons to another, with the oldest survivor succeeding in turn.

But only 14 of Abdul-Aziz’s sons still live. One, now 89, is king; another, Prince Salman, 77, is crown prince. Four of the other 12 are in their 80s; of the final eight, at least two are in poor health and three others have devoted themselves to religious meditation and stay out of politics. The three youngest, aged 70 to 73, have also tried to stay on the sidelines.

For the first time none of the surviving princes has the profile required to become crown prince, let alone king.

To deal with that reality, King Abdullah has established a Council of Allegiance, composed of the 14 senior princes still alive and the eldest sons of 17 now-passed princes. (One of the 32 brothers died without producing a son.)

The next crown prince and king will clearly come from among the grandsons, rather than the sons, of the dynasty’s founder. The two new governors are potential candidates, as is Interior Minister Prince Muhammad bin Nayef, 52, who is in charge of the kingdom’s war on terror. He was in Washington this week for a series of meetings with US officials, including President Obama.

Someone wants to put the three princes on the fast-track for succession. Getting ready for a change of generations and pursuing real reform could strengthen the kingdom’s stability — good news for Saudi Arabia’s allies, including the United States.