NOTHIN’ COULD BE NINER: Colin Kaepernick will lead the 49ers to a cover against the Falcons and join Joe Montana and Steve Young as San Francisco’s Super Bowl quarterbacks. (
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There’s no such thing as a bad win in the NFL playoffs. But the Falcons’ 30-28 survival against the Seahawks last Sunday in a game they led 20-0 at halftime, is about as close as it comes.
Because if there were misgivings going into that game about the Mike Smith-Matt Ryan tandem having never won a playoff game, there may be more now that they have won one.
Nationally, that’s certainly the case. Consider last week the Falcons were 2 1/2-point favorites against Seattle, less than the standard home-team advantage, this despite Atlanta owning an NFC-best 13-3 record and Ryan a 33-6 record as a starter in the Georgia Dome. Now, the Falcons are 14-3, Ryan 34-6 and they are four-point underdogs against the 49ers — a swing of nearly a touchdown.
Yes, the Falcons defense collapsed in the second half, but the scary part is that Ryan and Smith played roles in the near-demise. From the point Seattle cut the lead to 27-14, Ryan’s offense went three-and-out, three-and-out and four-and-out. Then, on what turned out to be the game-winning field-goal drive, Smith sprints about 40 yards down the sideline to call a timeout with 13 seconds left, inexplicably giving Seattle two final plays after an equally inexplicable poor kickoff.
You just get the idea Ryan, Smith and defensive star John Abraham, who always seems to be on the sidelines injured at the key moment, are not ready for this next moment.
And meanwhile, here comes Frankenstein’s monster, Colin Kaepernick, off a playoff performance against the Packers like the NFL has never seen from a quarterback — 263 yards with 2 TDs passing and a record 181 yards with 2 TDs rushing. If the Falcons couldn’t stop Russell Wilson in the second half, they will be in for a long day against this beast.
With Kaepernick and Frank Gore on the field together and smart play calls being made by Jim Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Greg Roman, there’s no way the defense can know what’s coming at them. This is accentuated by Kaepernick’s rapport with WR Michael Crabtree, who has gone from a disappointment to a breakout star. And the Falcons can’t sleep on TE Vernon Davis. Last week, Zach Miller of the Seahawks caught eight of nine passes thrown his way for 142 yards and a TD. Atlanta had no defense for him. It could be even worse against Davis.
The 49ers had a chance to make the Super Bowl last year but blew it against the Giants with some late mistakes. Harbaugh made the gutsy call to switch from Alex Smith to Kaepernick and will be rewarded with a trip to New Orleans.
The picks: 49ers -4 and Over 49
49ers, 38-17
Ravens (+9) over PATRIOTS; Under 51 1/2: Sometimes a point spread is a reasonable hint of what will happen, such as in the game above. Other times, the line seems out of whack, like in this one. But there’s a reason for that. The spread is not a selection but a reflection of the betting action, and the number is always inflated to counter the masses who will bet on Tom Brady no matter what.
The Ravens beat the Patriots 33-14 in the 2009 wild-card round. The Patriots then won two games (2010 regular season and last y ear’s AFC title game) by the identical score of 23-20, and in September the Ravens won 31-30 in Baltimore. Don’t see any evidence in those recent matchups the Patriots will put a double-digit hurting on the Ravens.
Have to give Brady and the Patriots a lot of credit for last week’s win over the Texans, though. Rob Gronkowski and Danny Woodhead went out of the game early and they still put 41 on the board against a good defense.
If the Ravens were lucky the Broncos secondary messed up on the colossal game-tying pass from Joe Flacco to Jacoby Jones, you still have to admire the execution of that play in sub-zero wind chills. While Peyton Manning was wrapped up in cold-weather gear like a mummy, the manly Ravens played the game with bare arms exposed.
Suspect this one will come down to a final play, as usual. Going Under because although both teams are explosive, there will be just enough hand-to-hand combat and defensive muscle to keep the score down a bit. Calling it a tight win for Brady and the Patriots, but a cover for coach John Harbaugh’s Ravens.
Patriots, 27-24
LAST WEEK: 2-2 game selections, 2-2 Over/Unders
LOCK OF THE WEEK: 49ers (Locks are 8-11 in 2012).