Instant replay and injuries have been the topics du April.
When it comes to instant replay, there is a sense of growing, learning; baby steps toward improving a system in its infancy.
With the injuries, there is only a sports-wide frustration. There is a cognizance of crisis and a belief that matters are worsening, that there are no approaching remedies. The most troubling issue has been the mounting elbow surgeries being needed for pitchers. A few weeks back I wrote about this worrisome phenomenon and the lack of a cohesive theory to explain it.
There were large blocs insisting pitchers threw too little and too much (particularly on teenage traveling teams). When it came to a rash of second Tommy John surgeries being needed for several young pitchers, there was sentiment that too many were rushing their rehabs after the first procedure and not giving the newly installed tendon enough time to transform into a sturdy ligament.
When it comes to the injury epidemic, in general, there also is no unanimity about why so many are going down so often. But there are two factors that work in tandem that make the most sense to me:
Scheduling has become more arduous at a time when bodies might not be recovering quicker from the use of illegal performance enhancers.
Some numbers first:
From spring training through the first 12 days of the season, there were 124 disabled-list stints covering 1,411 days. Both numbers were in line with the same period from 2011-13. But at the same point in 2010, there were just 104 DL stints for 1,078 days lost and the year before 92 for 1,019.
And those results held steady for full seasons. Last year, there were 521 DL stints in the majors covering 29,387 days lost. Again, the numbers had similarity to 2011-12. But in 2010, it was 459 DL stints for 23,579 days lost and in 2009 it was 478 for 26,173 lost. In 2008, the numbers were huge (532 DL stints/28,459 days lost), but it was an outlier because from 1998-2007 total DL stints ranged from 410 to 480.
Think of that this way: Last year, each of the 30 teams averaged 980 days lost compared to 786 in 2010. The difference of 194 days is roughly six players being lost for an additional month each. Ten years earlier, in 2003, teams averaged 748 days lost. The difference between that and last year is 232, or roughly eight players being lost for a month. Think that impacts a pennant race?
So why is this happening? Let’s start with the scheduling. It is just grueling on the body to do 162 games in 183 days moving consistently in different time zones. The demands of various national TV packages has put even more stress to, say, play a late-night ESPN game on Sunday night, fly after the game, get in early the next morning then play that day.
In addition, even spring training has become more stressful. Not long ago, teams played near exclusively day games in March. Now it is a mix — that brings consistent strains on the body clock/healing process/preparation time. In addition, more and more teams are involving themselves in spring trips — think Montreal, Panama, Las Vegas, etc. Plus two teams now usually begin the season overseas, as the Dodgers and Diamondbacks did, and officials have wondered if the hurry to ready for an earlier starting season with extreme travel caused some injuries, such as those to Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw (back) and Diamondbacks ace Patrick Corbin (who needed Tommy John surgery).
“There used to be a serene pace to spring training, a regularity in which you just eased into the season,” an AL executive said. “You played at the same time in the same region and never altered. That is gone now. It feels like the calendar is more filled on and off the field than ever before.
“We are pushing our players and I am wondering if we are getting them ready well or if we are leaving them exposed to injuries, both early in the season because maybe they are not fully ready and over the long season because we have essentially added a month (March) of more difficult stress on their bodies.”
And it is hard to ignore that the skyrocketing frequency of injuries has coincided in the past three years with tougher and tougher PED testing and penalties.
This is from a different AL official: “We have all anecdotally heard players attribute healing qualities to PEDs. If the sport has effectively reduced, if not eradicated PEDs, it stands to reason that we should see a dip in power production and a growth in injuries and an extension of time to recover from injuries. We accept the fact that the minimization of PEDs is largely responsible to a return to ‘normal’ power numbers, but we have been less quick to acknowledge that the same minimization of PEDs has likely led to more DL placements and longer recovery times.”
Again, it is just theory. What seems to be closer to fact is that a sport that always tested the depth of your 25- and 40-man rosters — and even more than that — is doing so in a greater way now. The combination of staying healthiest and handling the attrition has become a bigger factor in who reaches October.
Teams expected to contend — such as the A’s, Braves, Diamondbacks, Rangers and Reds — already are coping with massive pitching losses. The Tigers are without shortstop Jose Iglesias and key setup man Bruce Rondon for the year. The Yankees’ suspect depth already is being challenged with Mark Teixeira and David Robertson sidelined. Clubs in rebuilding mode such as the Mets (Matt Harvey) and the White Sox (Avisail Garcia) have had that process disrupted by the season-long loss of instrumental parts.
How will the Orioles’ Manny Machado rebound from major knee surgery? How will the Dodgers’ Matt Kemp hold up after ankle and shoulder problems? Can the Rays’ survive a long-term loss of Matt Moore?
Just to make this more disturbing, some of the best prospects also have been caught in this injury bug (Baseball America prospect rank for all of the majors in parentheses). The Twins, for example, have had the fewest DL stints so far, but center fielder Byron Buxton (1) injured his wrist in March and will be out until May while third baseman Miguel Sano (6) is out for the year after needing Tommy John surgery.
Taijuan Walker (11) would have made the Mariners’ rotation, but only now is working his way back from shoulder inflammation. Addison Russell (14), a shortstop consideration for Oakland in the second half, tore his right hamstring. Starter Jameson Taillon (22), who might have followed the Gerrit Cole path to help the Pirates after the All-Star break, will miss the whole year after needing Tommy John.
It is the unfortunate early-season storyline in the majors — pain.