Sports

Bailey: Orb can go the distance

BIG FINISH? Hall of Fame jockey Jerry Bailey (inset) believes Orb, working out yesterday at Churchill Downs, will be “right behind” Verrazano down the stretch at tomorrow’s Derby. (
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LOUISVILLE — When it comes to analyzing the shape of a race — how it will be run, who will go to the lead, who can come from behind and why — retired Hall-of-Fame jockey Jerry Bailey has few peers.

A two-time winner of the Kentucky Derby, when he turned in brilliant rides aboard Sea Hero in 1993 and Grindstone in 1996, Bailey is a color analyst for tomorrow’s Derby broadcast on NBC (4-7 p.m.). Yesterday, he gave The Post a preview of how the 1 1/4-mile classic will be run.

“Barring anything strange at the break, I think Goldencents goes [to the front], and Falling Sky goes,” he said. “It’s going to be an honest pace. I don’t think the first quarter [mile] is going to go slow like people think. Once they hit the [first] turn, I think everyone is going to be deliberate.

“Verrazano gets a perfect trip stalking those two from the outside. I think he is going to dictate the pace. It’s never the first two, because they’re going to go as slow as they can. It’s the guy pressing the pace that dictates when they go, and how fast they go. That’s Verrazano, and I think everybody reacts off him.”

Given the post positions and running styles of the top contenders, Bailey envisions a cleanly run race.

“Just looking at the race on paper, I don’t see the front-runners, the second flight or even Orb [a come-from-behind horse] having a tremendous amount of traffic problems,” he said. “Orb finds his way five, six, eight lengths off the pace going by the stands for the first time. But if they slow it up, he’s the kind of horse who can ease his way up into the race. And with that post [16], there’s not going to be a wall of horses to prohibit that. Drawing outside helps him. He gives away a little ground, but he can get the position he wants.

“Calvin [Borel] on Revolutionary from post 3 goes right to the fence. He’s almost there anyway. Vyjack is going to have an issue [from post 20]. I can see him stacked up pretty wide unless he gets really lucky.

“I really like Itsmyluckyday. He looks better than he did before the Florida Derby, he’s been training great, and his post [12] is great. He’s going to be in the next flight behind the front-runners, a good spot for him.”

The question comes down to who can stay the distance.

“I’m skeptical about Goldencents carrying his speed a mile-and-a-quarter,” Bailey said. “With the draw [post 8], any options he might have had of sitting off the pace by a half-length or length, I think is gone. And as soon as Falling Sky drops off, Verrazano is going to be right there. So I don’t see [Goldencents] getting a breather anywhere.

“And as soon as Verrazano launches his bid, you have to think Orb is going to be right behind him.”

After winning his first two starts, at 6 1/2 furlongs and a mile, by 7 3/4 and 16 1/4 lengths, Verrazano won the 1 1/16-mile Tampa Bay Derby by three lengths and the 1 1/8-mile Wood Memorial by three-quarters. What does this suggest?

“I don’t subscribe to the theory that Verrazano waits on horses, because he won by huge margins in his earlier races,” Bailey said. “But as you step up like he did and face better horses, your margins are going to be smaller. He’s not going to be as dominant.

“Here, he’s not only running against better horses than he did in the Wood, but you’re adding an eighth of a mile, which is huge. It’s a whole different world, and I’m not convinced Verrazano will be as effective going a mile-and-a-quarter as he is at a mile-and-an-eighth. That’s the bottom line.

“As for Orb, I have no doubts about him [going the distance]. No doubts.”