THE SEC schedulemakers did Las Vegas a favor this year. Pitting No. 3 Alabama against No. 9 LSU on Saturday, in Tuscaloosa, is a spot that couldn’t have come at a better time for the oddsmakers.
A month ago, the books would have been slammed with Alabama money. The stingy Tide were cruising, covering games left and right. The Tigers? Well, they were the opposite, needing a late miracle against Georgia, of all teams, just to stay in the national title hunt.
Now, though? Different story. Alabama has dropped two straight covers and was off last week. LSU, after losing to No. 1 Florida, has rattled off consecutive covers vs. ho-hum teams and has the nation — or at least some of it — believing once again.
A perfect storm in Nevada.
The oddsmakers, clearly knowing that the host Tide have more talent, more speed and more incentive, opened the game with Alabama as a logical 10-point favorite. Almost immediately, the public — feeling that aforementioned Bayou Bengal love — bet LSU down to single digits. And as of last night, 56 percent were still betting on the Tigers.
So what do we make of this? Well, Las Vegas is now in a rare spot, needing the superior team — Alabama — to win. And because of the public shift, that team doesn’t have as steep a price.
We’ll leave the decision up to you, as always, but we’re jumping on that discount.
“I’m not going to insult anybody, in terms of talking about this game,” Alabama coach Nick Saban said, “but like every other game that we play, this is the most important game we’ve played, because it is the game that we play this week.”
It’s a sound philosophy, clearly, and one that has worked for Saban. And while Alabama has scuffled a bit, the Tide have still only allowed one touchdown in the last three games. They are still on a collision course with Florida for the SEC title, and most likely, a berth in the national championship game. They are still, vastly, a superior team to LSU, which dropped covers to Washington, Vanderbilt and Mississippi State this year.
And, oh yeah, the Tide haven’t played in two weeks.
“The bye week did everybody a lot of good,” Saban said, “in terms of getting some rest, physically, mentally and emotionally.”
That’s what we like to hear. Alabama (-7½) is the pick.
TOMORROW
Boise State (-21) over LOUISIANA TECH: The Broncos will battle TCU for BCS style points the rest of the season, and cannot afford to slip on national TV.
SATURDAY
PITT (-21½) over Syracuse: The Panthers, also off a bye, catch the Orange in a turmoil tornado, as receiver Mike Williams left the team.
TEXAS (-36½) over Central Florida: The Longhorns offense may take a breather, but the defense, which could score a bunch on its own, won’t let up.
Northwestern (+16½) over IOWA: The Wildcats showed heart for three quarters vs. Penn State and could frustrate the cardiac Hawkeyes.
Navy (+11) over NOTRE DAME: Worried about the Irish receivers blowing past the Middies, but we’ll take the double digits and a team that already has covered vs. Ohio State and Wake Forest.
PENN STATE (-3½) over Ohio State: Should be nip-and-tuck, but we’ll side with the experience and the home crowd as the Lions search for a signature win.
Oregon (-6½) over STANFORD: Too easy to predict the letdown here, as the Cardinal might be a step too slow on defense to catch the Ducks . . . on their worst day.
Wake Forest (+16) over GEORGIA TECH: The Jackets will score, we know that. But if Vanderbilt can throw up 31 on them, the Deacons can, as well.
Texas Christian (-24½) over SAN DIEGO STATE: Tough number. But again, we think the Frogs and Boise will be in a scoreboard-watching tug-of-war the rest of the way, always looking to one-up one another.
FLORIDA (-35) over Vanderbilt: Another doozy to handicap here, but the season is shot for the Commodores, and we don’t see them with much motivation.
TULSA (-1) over Houston: Trap time? Isn’t Houston ranked No. 13? The unranked Hurricane, off a loss, should be able to run on that iffy Cougars defense.
Southern Cal (-10) over ARIZONA STATE: Can’t ignore the bounce-back factor for the Trojans, despite their road woes.
Oklahoma (-5½) over NEBRASKA: The Sooners, given the injuries and losses, have lowered their expectations, and it has worked. They can still play defense, and the Cornhuskers still seem in a fog.
UConn (+16½) over CINCINNATI: The Bearcats’ win at Syracuse was closer than it looked, and we know the Huskies — with covers at Baylor, West Virginia and Pitt — will play till the end.
OFF THE GRID
MIAMI (-13½) over Virginia: It’s about time the Huricanes start showing us something late in the year. One-point wins at Wake Forest won’t do it.
CLEMSON (-8½) over Florida State: Whatever offense the Seminoles mount, their defense will give right back.
MICHIGAN (-6½) over Purdue: The Wolverines need one more win for bowl eligibility, and this is their best chance.
Last week: 7-8 Overall; 1-2 Best Bets; 1-1 Off The Grid.
Season: 57-76-2; 10-17; 15-9.