ST. LOUIS — The designated hitter, or lack thereof, is about to become a huge story in the 109th World Series. But that is too narrow a focus.
What really needs to be asked in the strongest way yet is whether the National League needs to adopt the designated hitter because of a confluence of reasons — namely the presence of an interleague game every day during the season and the now annual plummet in offense.
Let’s deal with the small picture first. The Red Sox are going to have to sit down their second-leading home run (23) and RBI (92) producer in Mike Napoli, a very good first baseman, so David Ortiz, who led Boston in homers (30) and RBIs (103), can play first base for just the seventh time this year.
Boston constructs its roster and allocates its dollars to play one way all year, and then in three huge games — three World Series games — the Red Sox have to play a different way. Can you imagine, say, the Broncos playing one way all season and then being told in the Super Bowl they cannot play with a tight end?
You could reason the NL team is disadvantaged in the American League city because it does not construct a roster to have an extra hitter. Last year, for example, the Giants used Henry Sanchez and Ryan Theriot, who combined for three homers between them in 2012, as their World Series DHs. The Cardinals are different, able to use a strong hitter, Allen Craig, as the DH this year, and now having to decide between Craig or Matt Adams to start at first base for Games 3-5.
But this really shouldn’t be about three games in October. It should be about all the games from April to September, too.
You could probably offer yourself as a “traditionalist” and make a case the NL, pitcher-hits style is the best. It might be, and NL owners are holding tight to a no-DH mode. But understand the Players Association is never going to let a well-paid slot, the DH, evaporate for half the league. So if there is going to be one rule, it will have to be all-DH.
But also know there is a growing feeling within the game that, eventually, the DH will be used in all games. There are many reasons for that. Here are three big ones:
1. There is now an interleague game every day. It used to be such games were in one or two specific clusters. AL pitchers could prepare for those clusters. Now, they are being put at a higher risk for injury by being asked to do what they hardly ever do — hit and run the bases — at various points throughout the entire season. At a time when teams are trying more and more to protect pitchers, should half the sport’s hurlers be put in this situation?
2. The 15 NL teams simply cannot sign certain free agents to long-term contracts because they do not have the DH as a fallback position when the player ages and, perhaps, loses the ability to play the field. Ortiz, for example, cannot be signed by an NL team. And it may even be this offseason that NL teams have to be more cautious in pursuit of Robinson Cano, who just turned 31.
3. In the past four years, offense has cratered, and it was at its worst in 2013. Teams averaged 4.17 runs per game this year, lowest since 1989. The MLB batting average of .253 and on-base percentage of .318 were the lowest since 1972, the year before the AL introduced the DH. Slugging (.396) was under .400 for the first time since 1992.
Runs per team in the playoffs are down to 3.59. It was below 3.5 last postseason. Aside from the Randy Johnson-Curt Schilling-influenced outlier of 2001, these are the two lowest-scoring postseasons since 1991.
I have talked to more than 20 officials and scouts in the past two weeks on this subject, and most say not to overreact, that this is cyclical. I don’t believe that. I think the better testing for steroids and stimulants hurt everyday players more than pitchers, particularly starters, who get more days off for physical recovery.
Technology has favored pitchers by positioning fielders more precisely and being more granular in breaking down type of pitches and locations for which each individual hitter is most susceptible. The specialization of bullpens — matching up not just lefty-lefty now, but being more detailed in unleashing hard throwers or groundball specialists on hitters who have shortcomings against those types.
And I don’t think power arms entering the game at a greater rate than power bats is cyclical either. Giants assistant general manager Bobby Evans offered a theory that many kids now, rather than playing multiple sports, tend to fixate on one. Power arms are easy to detect in kids and, thus, power pitchers tend to gravitate to baseball (mom and dad pushing for scholarships or the majors), while all-around athletes might be lured by other sports, draining position-player possibilities from the game.
The NFL, when it sees a trend — especially a trend that hurts offense — tends to alter rules to reverse the trend. MLB is more deliberate and, for the most part, I think that is wise.
In this situation, however, I think MLB should be more proactive. There are a lot of forces driving offense down and nothing on the horizon as an obvious punch-back at pitching. Yes, 1-0 and 2-1 games are great and dramatic. But the current swing-and-miss nature of the sport means a lot of nothing is going on too often, and before drama just becomes routine boredom, MLB should at least consider countermeasures.
Adding the DH to the NL is not a panacea. But it would be a start, especially when you consider the additional problems related to interleague games and free agency — and how ludicrous the rule shift midway through a World Series is. When offense was wilting in the early 1970s, the AL adopted the DH. Offense is wilting again. Calling it cyclical doesn’t make it so.
The next three games put the Red Sox in an unfair position and should help jump-start a conversation about which the sport needs to be more serious.