The fantasy football season is a roller-coaster, but not just for the reason you expect.
Sure, it has its ups and down, twists and turns. But it also is over in the blink of an eye. You stand in line all year, biding time with hoops and hockey and baseball. And when football finally arrives, when, at last, you strap in to start the season, it is over before you know it.
Already, we have reached that point, the big turn at the edge of the park, where the ride begins its trip back toward the end.
With that in mind, here is a look at the surprises, busts and second-half projections.
SURPRISES
Peyton Manning, Broncos, QB: Everyone knew he would be good, but six points better each week than the next best quarterback? Pretty good for a guy who normally was the third QB drafted.
Philip Rivers, Chargers, QB: Undrafted in many leagues, he has the sixth highest weekly average for a QB.
Eddie Lacy, Packers, RB: He has given the Packers a running game they haven’t had in years.
Danny Woodhead, Chargers, RB: Rushing totals are light, but his role in passing game has made late-round pick a flex option.
Julius Thomas, Broncos, TE: What was expected to be a tight end carousel instead has been a highly successful one-man show.
BUSTS
Colin Kaepernick, Niners, QB: Big Week 1, but has done little since.
C.J. Spiller, Bills, RB: The single biggest bust so far. First-round pick averaging fewer than six points a game.
Ray Rice, Ravens, RB: Giving Spiller a run for his money, assuming either one really runs anywhere anymore.
Mike Wallace, Dolphins, WR: Highly expensive decoy for Miami.
Hakeem Nicks, Giants, WR: No TDs all season. None.
Injuries — Doug Martin, Julio Jones, Reggie Wayne, Jay Cutler, Jermichael Finley, Randall Cobb, et al, will sting for the rest of the fantasy season. Some others have already been costly — Roddy White, Steven Jackson, Rob Gronkowski, David Wilson (who was a bust before injury) — and others that have become expected — Darren McFadden, DeMarco Murray, Danny Amendola, Chris Ivory.
LOOKING AHEAD
Percy Harvin, Seahawks, WR: If you haven’t grabbed him yet, do so. He could provide a huge boost right around fantasy playoff time.
Harry Douglas, Falcons, WR: With Julio Jones out the rest of the season, Douglas still will get looks even when Roddy White returns.
Zac Stacy, Rams, RB: Has a firm hold on the Rams running back job, and with new QB woes, he figures to get a lot of touches.
Darrius Heyward-Bey, Colts, WR: With Reggie Wayne out, DHB will become sidekick to T.Y. Hilton.
Le’Veon Bell, Steelers, RB: Getting plenty of touches for Steelers team that should be better in the second half.
BIG WEEKS
Andy Dalton, QB, Bengals, vs. Jets
Has 300-plus yards with three TDs the past two weeks. The Jets yielded at least one passing TD in every game until last week, and they don’t force turnovers.
Eddie Lacy, RB, Packers, at Vikings
Has at least 80 yards in three straight since return from a concussion. The Vikings, who rank 31st defending fantasy RBs, have given up four rushing scores in their past three games.
Marques Colston, WR, Saints, vs. Bills
With Jimmy Graham (foot) not 100 percent, if he plays at all, Colston should become Drew Brees’ top target against a Bills secondary that gives up huge chunks of fantasy points.
Jordan Reed, TE, Redskins, at Broncos
Because Washington likely will be behind and throwing the ball, Reed should get ample looks against a weak Denver defense.
SMALL WEAKS
Tom Brady, QB, Patriots, vs. Dolphins
Has one TD pass in past three games, to go with three interceptions, and just one 300-yard game all season. Only big-time fantasy outing allowed by Dolphins was to Drew Brees, in New Orleans.
Bilal Powell, RB, Jets, at Bengals
Chris Ivory had the lion’s share of carries last week. Powell might see healthier dose this week, but nothing like he was getting earlier in the season.
Harry Douglas, WR, Falcons, at Cardinals
Don’t expect a repeat of his huge Week 7 vs. Tampa Bay, at least not this week vs. Patrick Peterson and a Cardinals secondary that is the fourth stingiest against fantasy wide receivers.
Jordan Cameron, TE, Browns, at Chiefs
Kansas City has allowed no more than 43 yards receiving in a game by a TE this season and zero TDs. Another Cleveland QB switch, this time to Jason Campbell, won’t help.
The Decision
Drew Loftis and Steve Serby debate whom you should start this week:
Justin Blackmon vs. Terrance Williams
Loftis: Blackmon — Has been a monster in two of three games since returning from hamstring and groin injuries. Jaguars likely will be playing from behind. Easily top target of QB Chad Henne, who has back-to-back 300-yard games. Give me the physically gifted top target on an awful team over the average talent, third or fourth option on decent team.
Serby: Williams — Has supplanted Miles Austin as Tony Romo’s second option behind Dez Bryant (Loftis says: Don’t forget about TE Jason Witten), and it’s a given the Lions’ 28th-ranked pass defense double-cover Dez in his anticipated personal duel against Calvin Johnson as the main event of the Romo-Matthew Stafford shoot out. Williams has caught at least one touchdown pass in three straight games and averaged 83 yards. In a 34-30 loss two years ago to the Lions, Romo threw for 331 yards and three TDs (and three INTS), and his eyes will light up at the sight of corners Chris Houston, Rashean Mathis (groin) and Darius Slay (rookie).
Last week: Serby 10 (Knowshon Moreno — 40 rushing yards, one rushing TD, 9 receiving yards), Loftis 8 (Joseph Randle — 65 rushing yards, 28 receiving yards)
Season: Serby leads, 4-3