PORT ST. LUCIE, Fla. — A genius named Harold Ramis died a few days back. If you laughed at the initial version of the SCTV show or at a movie in the past quarter century, there was a decent chance Harold Ramis directed and/or wrote the scene.
“Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?” came from John Belushi’s mouth, but Ramis’ pen.
Ramis’ greatest gift was the masterpiece “Groundhog Day,” a laugh-out-loud comedy with think-all-day themes about the value of time and the redemptive power of love. The main character, played by Bill Murray, is stuck in an endless loop in which he lives Feb. 2 in Punxsutawney, Pa., over and over — same people, same events, etc.
I was thinking of that film Friday as I entered Mets camp for what was their first spring game, but with a sense already of been there, done that. After all, there was the Flaw Firm of Ruben Tejada, Ike Davis and Lucas Duda in the starting lineup beginning, what is it, Year 4 of “they need to show us what they’ve got” portion of the program? Quite frankly, none of it has been as amusing as Bill Murray.
Plus there was that never-ending backstory playing out yet again in which the Mets are selling hard that they are better than the perception offered by their competitors, the public, the media and the odds-makers.
This week Bovada.lv revealed its over/under win total for the Mets at 73.5 and — lo and behold — not long after that it was leaked publicly that general manager Sandy Alderson had gathered the team’s movers and shakers and insisted the Mets possessed 90-win potential. The team’s patriarch, Fred Wilpon, weighed in with (a threat? an inspiration? a prod?) — “we better win 90.”
Now is a good time for a recent history lesson: In 2010, Bovada pegged the Mets at 81.5, the Mets said they were better and finished with 79 wins. In 2011, Bovada weighed in at 77, the Mets said they were better and the Mets won 77. In 2012, Bovada’s number was 73.5, the Mets said they were better and the Mets won 74. Last year, Bovada set the line at 74.5, the Mets said they were better and won 74.
Short of having Needle Nose Ned in center — if you don’t get the reference, really, do yourself a favor, watch the movie — how was this not Groundhog Day?
The Mets have become experienced at selling best-case scenarios at this time of year. And really, this is the time to do it. If you can’t dream on the final day of February, when will you? But understand every organization is doing this, especially those that need to connect scads of dots to get from here to October. Trust me, the Marlins — for example — are doing: What if Henderson Alvarez’s 2013 season-ending no-hitter was a preview of what is to come and he joins the Harvey-esque (but healthy) Jose Fernandez, Jacob Turner and Nathan Eovaldi to form a twenty-something power-throwing rotation, and Giancarlo Stanton honors his 40-homer pedigree, Christian Yelich flourishes in his first full season and Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Garrett Jones, Rafael Furcal and Casey McGehee bring veteran stability? And the Marlins and Cubs, at 69.5, were the only NL teams for which Bovada set a lower 2014 win total than the Mets.
In times like this, Mets executives have become expert in playing the wounded puppies, as if the negative projections and press are part of some anti-Mets conspiracy rather than, you know, not accumulating enough good baseball players. The folks who run a betting site are cold-blooded and trying to take money, not make friends. For example, after the Mets had regular-season success from 2006-08, Bovada set the 2009 win total at 89.5. The Mets tanked to 70.
Also, this has been a brutal year for New York sports and I will, as always, cover what comes, but it would be good for the city and the newspaper business if both the Mets and Yankees could contend. The Mets sinking month-by-month into irrelevancy during the season is Groundhog Day-esque, as well; counting how many hundreds show up at Citi Field in August and September has become redundant and boring.
So rather than “we better win 90,” these Mets should return to Wilpon’s previous battle cry — to play meaningful games in September. To be relevant for at least the second NL wild card, a club probably will need at least 70 wins through August so that, say, a 15-10 final month might get you in. In the Mets’ case, that at least forces them to think about what to do with Matt Harvey at the end of his Tommy John rehab.
On the first day of spring — when we are again wondering about Davis, Duda and Tejada — here is hoping for an end of redundancy, that this is the year the Mets (like Bill Murray) finally wake up and distance themselves from the shackles of their Groundhog Day.