Yes, stocks took a 2-percent markdown last week — but don’t be a sucker.
This week could bring more big intraday swings and volatility as asset managers reevaluate their portfolios to adjust to Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s recent signal that he will wind down fiscal stimulus in the coming year.
The CBOE Volatility Index , Wall Street’s “fear gauge,” rose 10.2 percent last week, ending Friday at 19. The index has risen in four of the past five weeks since Bernanke first broached the phasing out of quantitative easing, or QE.
“The angst over the Fed is going to cause people to reprice. Hedge funds are part that group. But I don’t believe they are the only ones selling,” said Ken Polcari, director of the NYSE floor division at O’Neil Securities in New York.
Polcari said large asset managers also were likely to be moving around money.
Amid worries about the Fed, investors are going to look at the broad picture, which has plenty of warning signs. Economic growth remains spotty, Chinese credit markets are showing stress and interest rates are on the rise.
One reason for equity investors to worry is the second-quarter earnings outlook. Earnings warnings from companies outnumber positive outlooks by 6.5 to 1, the most negative ratio since the first quarter of 2001, according to Thomson Reuters data.